Clemson at California NCAA, Week 4, 2026 regular season Kickoff: September 26, 2026 at 2:30 AM UTC Status: scheduled ============================================================ WHAT TO EXPECT ============================================================ spreadsim's model favors Clemson by 9.2 points, giving them a 70% chance to win outright. It projects a total of 57.5 combined points, with California at 24.2 and Clemson at 33.2. Simulating the game 10,000 times, California's margin lands between -31.3 and +13.5 points 80% of the time -- a real range, not a single guessed score. ============================================================ THE PREDICTION IN DETAIL ============================================================ Spread: California +9.2 / Clemson -9.2 Moneyline: California +237 / Clemson -237 Win probability: California 29.6% / Clemson 70.3% Projected total: 57.5 points Last recalculated: September 8, 2026 at 6:01 AM UTC This comes from each team's Elo rating -- California: 1388.4, Clemson: 1529.2 -- plus a +65.0-point home-field edge, adjusted by these real per-team factors (16.2 Elo points per spread point): Adjustment factor California Clemson ----------------- ---------- ------- elevation +0.0 +0.0 injury_hazard +0.0 +0.0 roster_talent +47.1 +100.0 travel_fatigue +4.0 -1.5 coaching_change -26.8 +9.5 ncaa_efficiency -20.0 -20.0 blowout_hangover -20.0 -20.0 home_field_vector +9.5 -- consecutive_road -- +0.0 ============================================================ HOW THIS COMPARES TO THE MARKET ============================================================ No market line available for this game yet. ============================================================ RANGE OF LIKELY OUTCOMES ============================================================ Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations. Projected score: Clemson 33.2 -- California 24.2 Percentile 10th 25th 50th 75th 90th ----------------- ----- ----- ---- ---- ----- California margin -31.3 -20.7 -9.0 +2.5 +13.5 Total points 35.7 46.1 57.4 69.0 79.0 ============================================================ PLAYER PROPS: WHAT TO EXPECT ============================================================ Individual player projections, with each stat's real 68% likely range or touchdown probability: CALIFORNIA Player Pos Stat Proj. 68% range / TD odds ------------------------ --- --------------- ----- ------------------- Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele QB Passing yards 305.0 220-366 Pass attempts 37.8 29-44 Completions 24.0 18-29 Passing TDs 1.27 72% 1+, 36% 2+ Rushing yards -11.5 -- Rushing TDs 0.35 29% 1+ Chase Hendricks WR Receiving yards 84.5 49-131 Receptions 5.1 3-8 Receiving TDs 0.58 44% 1+, 12% 2+ Ian Strong WR Receiving yards 70.2 35-126 Receptions 4.0 2-6 Receiving TDs 0.43 35% 1+, 7% 2+ Adam Mohammed RB Rushing yards 55.6 15-105 Carries 11.6 6-22 Rushing TDs 0.49 39% 1+, 9% 2+ Receiving yards 18.1 -- Receptions 2.7 2-5 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Ashten Emory RB Rushing yards 54.0 13-115 Carries 10.5 5-17 Rushing TDs 0.24 22% 1+ Receiving yards 13.1 -- Receptions 2.4 1-3 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Jordan King WR Receiving yards 42.9 7-73 Receptions 2.7 0-4 Receiving TDs 0.14 14% 1+ Mason Mini TE Receiving yards 36.5 13-61 Receptions 3.2 2-5 Receiving TDs 0.33 28% 1+ Dorian Thomas TE Receiving yards 31.8 8-50 Receptions 3.4 2-5 Receiving TDs 0.11 10% 1+ Aaron Hampton LB Tackles 4.9 2-10 Isaiah Crosby DB Tackles 4.7 2-7 Joshua Pierce LB Sacks 0.40 33% 1+, 6% 2+ Jayden Wayne LB Sacks 0.31 27% 1+ CLEMSON Player Pos Stat Proj. 68% range / TD odds ------------------- --- --------------- ----- ------------------- Christopher Vizzina QB Passing yards 168.4 84-321 Pass attempts 25.7 17-45 Completions 16.2 10-30 Passing TDs 0.62 46% 1+, 13% 2+ Rushing yards 8.8 -- Rushing TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Bryant Wesco Jr. WR Receiving yards 76.2 41-120 Receptions 4.4 2-7 Receiving TDs 0.83 56% 1+, 20% 2+ T.J. Moore WR Receiving yards 68.1 32-114 Receptions 4.0 2-6 Receiving TDs 0.36 30% 1+, 5% 2+ Chris Johnson Jr. RB Rushing yards 66.6 26-131 Carries 7.7 2-10 Rushing TDs 0.61 46% 1+, 13% 2+ Receiving yards 23.2 4-48 Receptions 2.2 1-3 Receiving TDs 0.20 18% 1+ Gideon Davidson RB Rushing yards 44.5 4-65 Carries 8.5 3-12 Rushing TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Receiving yards 25.9 6-50 Receptions 2.6 2-4 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Tristan Smith WR Receiving yards 39.3 4-68 Receptions 3.2 1-5 Receiving TDs 0.12 11% 1+ Christian Bentancur TE Receiving yards 18.9 -- Receptions 2.6 1-4 Receiving TDs 0.20 18% 1+ Olsen Patt-Henry TE Receiving yards 12.1 -- Receptions 2.2 0-3 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Sammy Brown LB Tackles 9.5 6-12 Sacks 0.44 36% 1+, 7% 2+ Corey Myrick S Tackles 8.0 6-10 Jahiem Lawson DE Sacks 0.50 39% 1+, 9% 2+ ============================================================ GAME CONTEXT ============================================================ California recent form: 2-3 over last 5 games Clemson recent form: 3-2 over last 5 games ------------------------------------------------------------ Generated by spreadsim.com's model. See spreadsim.com/methodology for how these numbers are computed. spreadsim.com/games/10265