Louisiana at Charlotte NCAA, Week 4, 2026 regular season Kickoff: September 26, 2026 at 4:00 AM UTC Status: scheduled ============================================================ WHAT TO EXPECT ============================================================ spreadsim's model favors Louisiana by 13.1 points, giving them a 77% chance to win outright. It projects a total of 50.6 combined points, with Charlotte at 18.8 and Louisiana at 31.9. Simulating the game 10,000 times, Charlotte's margin lands between -35.5 and +9.0 points 80% of the time -- a real range, not a single guessed score. ============================================================ THE PREDICTION IN DETAIL ============================================================ Spread: Charlotte +13.1 / Louisiana -13.1 Moneyline: Charlotte +339 / Louisiana -339 Win probability: Charlotte 22.8% / Louisiana 77.2% Projected total: 50.6 points Last recalculated: September 8, 2026 at 6:01 AM UTC This comes from each team's Elo rating -- Charlotte: 1236.9, Louisiana: 1463.3 -- plus a +65.0-point home-field edge, adjusted by these real per-team factors (16.2 Elo points per spread point): Adjustment factor Charlotte Louisiana ----------------- --------- --------- elevation +0.0 +0.0 injury_hazard +0.0 +0.0 roster_talent -70.1 -59.7 travel_fatigue +0.0 +0.0 coaching_change +11.8 +11.8 ncaa_efficiency -20.0 +20.0 blowout_hangover +0.0 +0.0 home_field_vector -0.5 -- consecutive_road -- +0.0 ============================================================ HOW THIS COMPARES TO THE MARKET ============================================================ No market line available for this game yet. ============================================================ RANGE OF LIKELY OUTCOMES ============================================================ Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations. Projected score: Louisiana 31.9 -- Charlotte 18.8 Percentile 10th 25th 50th 75th 90th ---------------- ----- ----- ----- ---- ---- Charlotte margin -35.5 -24.8 -13.1 -1.4 +9.0 Total points 29.1 39.3 50.8 62.0 72.5 ============================================================ PLAYER PROPS: WHAT TO EXPECT ============================================================ Individual player projections, with each stat's real 68% likely range or touchdown probability: CHARLOTTE Player Pos Stat Proj. 68% range / TD odds ----------------- --- --------------- ----- ------------------- Grayson Loftis QB Passing yards 189.4 105-310 Pass attempts 25.5 17-35 Completions 15.0 9-22 Passing TDs 0.94 61% 1+, 24% 2+ Rushing yards -1.7 -- Rushing TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Jaden Barnes WR Receiving yards 67.9 32-147 Receptions 4.9 3-10 Receiving TDs 0.95 61% 1+, 24% 2+ Jariel Cobb RB Rushing yards 58.9 18-91 Carries 9.2 4-13 Rushing TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Receiving yards 18.0 -- Receptions 2.2 1-3 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Khamani Alexander RB Rushing yards 41.4 0-49 Carries 6.7 1-8 Rushing TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Derrick Eley WR Receiving yards 27.7 -- Receptions 1.2 1-1 Receiving TDs 0.25 22% 1+ Lane Wadle TE Receiving yards 26.3 3-41 Receptions 2.2 0-3 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Gus McGee TE Receiving yards 24.3 1-42 Receptions 2.3 1-3 Receiving TDs 0.11 10% 1+ Jaylen Hampton WR Receiving yards 15.9 -- Receptions 1.3 2-2 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Kadin Schmitz LB Tackles 6.1 3-10 Gavin Willis LB Tackles 5.7 3-9 Jaylon Johnson DL Sacks 0.14 13% 1+ Curtis Simpson DL Sacks 0.12 12% 1+ LOUISIANA Player Pos Stat Proj. 68% range / TD odds ------------------- --- --------------- ----- ------------------- Lunch Winfield QB Passing yards 247.3 163-330 Pass attempts 25.8 17-32 Completions 15.6 10-20 Passing TDs 1.38 75% 1+, 40% 2+ Rushing yards 70.9 31-126 Rushing TDs 0.92 60% 1+, 24% 2+ Shelton Sampson Jr. WR Receiving yards 68.1 32-112 Receptions 3.9 2-5 Receiving TDs 0.82 56% 1+, 20% 2+ Caden Jensen TE Receiving yards 31.5 8-57 Receptions 3.1 2-5 Receiving TDs 0.09 8% 1+ Brock Chappell TE Receiving yards 25.6 2-45 Receptions 2.4 1-3 Receiving TDs 0.11 11% 1+ Landon Strother WR Receiving yards 24.2 -- Receptions 2.5 0-4 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Jaydon Johnson WR Receiving yards 16.1 -- Receptions 1.6 -- Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Steven Blanco RB Rushing yards 13.4 -- Carries 4.0 -- Rushing TDs 0.15 14% 1+ Maurion Eleam S Tackles 5.2 3-7 Brent Gordon Jr. CB Tackles 5.1 4-7 Maxie Baudoin IV DL Sacks 0.14 13% 1+ Fitzgerald West Jr. DL Sacks 0.12 12% 1+ ============================================================ GAME CONTEXT ============================================================ Charlotte recent form: 0-5 over last 5 games Louisiana recent form: 4-1 over last 5 games ------------------------------------------------------------ Generated by spreadsim.com's model. See spreadsim.com/methodology for how these numbers are computed. spreadsim.com/games/10266