Notre Dame at Purdue NCAA, Week 4, 2026 regular season Kickoff: September 26, 2026 at 4:00 AM UTC Status: scheduled ============================================================ WHAT TO EXPECT ============================================================ spreadsim's model favors Notre Dame by 28.9 points, giving them a 94% chance to win outright. It projects a total of 63.5 combined points, with Purdue at 17.2 and Notre Dame at 46.2. Simulating the game 10,000 times, Purdue's margin lands between -51.4 and -7.3 points 80% of the time -- a real range, not a single guessed score. ============================================================ THE PREDICTION IN DETAIL ============================================================ Spread: Purdue +28.9 / Notre Dame -28.9 Moneyline: Purdue +1489 / Notre Dame -1489 Win probability: Purdue 6.3% / Notre Dame 93.7% Projected total: 63.5 points Last recalculated: September 8, 2026 at 6:01 AM UTC This comes from each team's Elo rating -- Purdue: 1330.1, Notre Dame: 1795.5 -- plus a +65.0-point home-field edge, adjusted by these real per-team factors (16.2 Elo points per spread point): Adjustment factor Purdue Notre Dame ----------------- ------ ---------- elevation +0.0 +0.0 injury_hazard +0.0 +0.0 roster_talent +19.4 +100.0 travel_fatigue +0.0 +3.7 coaching_change +11.8 +9.5 ncaa_efficiency +20.0 +15.1 blowout_hangover +0.0 +0.0 home_field_vector +8.4 -- consecutive_road -- +0.0 ============================================================ HOW THIS COMPARES TO THE MARKET ============================================================ No market line available for this game yet. ============================================================ RANGE OF LIKELY OUTCOMES ============================================================ Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations. Projected score: Notre Dame 46.2 -- Purdue 17.2 Percentile 10th 25th 50th 75th 90th ------------- ----- ----- ----- ----- ---- Purdue margin -51.4 -40.6 -29.0 -17.3 -7.3 Total points 42.0 51.9 63.4 74.8 85.1 ============================================================ PLAYER PROPS: WHAT TO EXPECT ============================================================ Individual player projections, with each stat's real 68% likely range or touchdown probability: PURDUE Player Pos Stat Proj. 68% range / TD odds --------------- --- --------------- ----- ------------------- Ryan Browne QB Passing yards 170.2 86-279 Pass attempts 28.3 20-46 Completions 16.7 10-27 Passing TDs 0.30 26% 1+ Rushing yards 19.7 -- Rushing TDs 0.20 18% 1+ Asaad Waseem WR Receiving yards 59.8 24-95 Receptions 5.2 3-9 Receiving TDs 0.23 20% 1+ Corey Smith WR Receiving yards 47.9 12-75 Receptions 3.3 1-5 Receiving TDs 0.18 17% 1+ Xavier Townsend WR Rushing yards 5.3 -- Rushing TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Receiving yards 40.2 4-74 Receptions 3.0 1-5 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Jerrick Gibson RB Rushing yards 31.0 -- Carries 10.8 5-19 Rushing TDs 0.14 13% 1+ Fame Ijeboi RB Rushing yards 29.3 -- Carries 10.3 4-15 Rushing TDs 0.14 13% 1+ Receiving yards 7.2 -- Receptions 2.3 1-3 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Kylan Fox TE Receiving yards 17.4 -- Receptions 2.5 1-4 Receiving TDs 0.09 9% 1+ Charles Correa LB Tackles 6.6 4-12 John Slaughter DB Tackles 4.9 2-7 Hudson Miller LB Sacks 0.25 22% 1+ Trey Smith DE Sacks 0.20 18% 1+ NOTRE DAME Player Pos Stat Proj. 68% range / TD odds ---------------- --- --------------- ----- ------------------- CJ Carr QB Passing yards 228.3 144-331 Pass attempts 26.0 18-34 Completions 16.7 10-22 Passing TDs 1.66 81% 1+, 49% 2+ Rushing yards 7.8 -- Rushing TDs 0.22 20% 1+ Aneyas Williams RB Rushing yards 77.0 36-128 Carries 9.9 4-17 Rushing TDs 2.00 86% 1+, 60% 2+ Jordan Faison WR Receiving yards 60.0 24-97 Receptions 3.6 2-5 Receiving TDs 0.28 24% 1+ Jaden Greathouse WR Receiving yards 43.7 8-69 Receptions 2.3 -- Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Mylan Graham WR Receiving yards 40.1 4-62 Receptions 2.6 0-4 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Nolan James Jr. RB Rushing yards 35.7 -- Carries 7.0 2-9 Rushing TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Jack Larsen TE Receiving yards 21.1 -- Receptions 1.4 2-2 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Ty Washington TE Receiving yards 16.2 -- Receptions 2.3 1-3 Receiving TDs 0.20 18% 1+ Drayk Bowen LB Tackles 6.4 4-10 Brauntae Johnson S Tackles 5.1 2-7 Boubacar Traore DL Sacks 0.81 56% 1+, 20% 2+ Keon Keeley DL Sacks 0.50 39% 1+, 9% 2+ ============================================================ GAME CONTEXT ============================================================ Purdue recent form: 0-5 over last 5 games Notre Dame recent form: 5-0 over last 5 games Head-to-head history: Season Away Home Winner ------ ------ ----- ------ 2025 PUR 30 ND 56 ND 2024 ND 66 PUR 7 ND ------------------------------------------------------------ Generated by spreadsim.com's model. See spreadsim.com/methodology for how these numbers are computed. spreadsim.com/games/10267