Oklahoma State at West Virginia NCAA, Week 4, 2026 regular season Kickoff: September 26, 2026 at 4:00 AM UTC Status: scheduled ============================================================ WHAT TO EXPECT ============================================================ spreadsim's model favors West Virginia by 21.7 points, giving them a 88% chance to win outright. It projects a total of 41.8 combined points, with West Virginia at 31.5 and Oklahoma State at 10.1. Simulating the game 10,000 times, West Virginia's margin lands between -0.8 and +43.3 points 80% of the time -- a real range, not a single guessed score. Injury watch: Jake Springfield (Questionable). ============================================================ THE PREDICTION IN DETAIL ============================================================ Spread: West Virginia -21.7 / Oklahoma State +21.7 Moneyline: West Virginia -761 / Oklahoma State +761 Win probability: West Virginia 88.4% / Oklahoma State 11.6% Projected total: 41.8 points Last recalculated: September 8, 2026 at 6:01 AM UTC This comes from each team's Elo rating -- West Virginia: 1462.6, Oklahoma State: 1237.6 -- plus a +65.0-point home-field edge, adjusted by these real per-team factors (16.2 Elo points per spread point): Adjustment factor West Virginia Oklahoma State ----------------- ------------- -------------- elevation +0.0 +0.0 injury_hazard +0.0 +0.0 roster_talent +21.0 +0.4 travel_fatigue +4.0 +1.3 coaching_change +9.5 -26.8 ncaa_efficiency -20.0 -20.0 blowout_hangover +0.0 +0.0 home_field_vector +3.0 -- consecutive_road -- +0.0 ============================================================ HOW THIS COMPARES TO THE MARKET ============================================================ No market line available for this game yet. ============================================================ RANGE OF LIKELY OUTCOMES ============================================================ Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations. Projected score: Oklahoma State 10.1 -- West Virginia 31.5 Percentile 10th 25th 50th 75th 90th -------------------- ---- ---- ----- ----- ----- West Virginia margin -0.8 +9.7 +21.5 +32.8 +43.3 Total points 20.1 30.2 41.5 53.1 63.3 ============================================================ PLAYER PROPS: WHAT TO EXPECT ============================================================ Individual player projections, with each stat's real 68% likely range or touchdown probability: WEST VIRGINIA Player Pos Stat Proj. 68% range / TD odds -------------------- --- --------------- ----- ------------------- Scotty Fox Jr. QB Passing yards 197.7 113-334 Pass attempts 24.8 16-39 Completions 15.0 9-25 Passing TDs 1.12 67% 1+, 31% 2+ Rushing yards 22.8 -- Rushing TDs 0.32 28% 1+ Cam Cook RB Rushing yards 101.6 61-126 Carries 17.2 12-22 Rushing TDs 1.44 76% 1+, 42% 2+ Receiving yards 22.4 3-41 Receptions 2.6 2-4 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ John Neider WR Receiving yards 41.4 6-67 Receptions 2.7 0-4 Receiving TDs 0.30 26% 1+ DJ Epps WR Rushing yards 7.7 -- Rushing TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Receiving yards 39.3 4-73 Receptions 3.7 2-6 Receiving TDs 0.30 26% 1+ Josh Sapp TE Receiving yards 28.0 4-42 Receptions 1.6 -- Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Ryan Ward TE Receiving yards 20.6 -- Receptions 1.7 0-2 Receiving TDs 0.29 25% 1+ Tyler Stolsky LB Tackles 7.6 4-13 Kamari Wilson S Tackles 6.9 4-9 Zeke Durham-Campbell DL Sacks 0.31 27% 1+ Corey McIntyre Jr. DL Sacks 0.21 19% 1+ OKLAHOMA STATE Player Pos Stat Proj. 68% range / TD odds ------------------ --- --------------- ----- ------------------- Drew Mestemaker QB Passing yards 367.5 283-546 Pass attempts 32.5 24-45 Completions 21.9 16-29 Passing TDs 3.03 95% 1+, 80% 2+ Rushing yards 8.5 -- Rushing TDs 0.34 28% 1+ Wyatt Young WR Rushing yards 10.4 -- Rushing TDs 0.34 28% 1+ Receiving yards 95.2 60-205 Receptions 5.5 4-8 Receiving TDs 0.67 49% 1+, 14% 2+ Caleb Hawkins RB Rushing yards 77.8 37-156 Carries 14.7 9-24 Rushing TDs 1.91 85% 1+, 57% 2+ Receiving yards 22.0 3-33 Receptions 2.8 2-5 Receiving TDs 0.32 27% 1+ Rodney Harris II WR Receiving yards 55.5 20-95 Receptions 3.4 2-5 Receiving TDs 0.34 28% 1+ Miles Coleman WR Receiving yards 53.8 18-106 Receptions 3.6 2-6 Receiving TDs 0.34 28% 1+ Ayo Adeyi RB Rushing yards 48.7 8-92 Carries 9.6 4-16 Rushing TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Ethan Wesloski LB Tackles 8.9 6-13 Fatafehi Vailea II DT Tackles 4.5 3-10 Billy Walton III DE Sacks 0.40 33% 1+, 6% 2+ Malik Charles DE Sacks 0.31 27% 1+ ============================================================ GAME CONTEXT ============================================================ West Virginia recent form: 3-2 over last 5 games Oklahoma State recent form: 0-5 over last 5 games Head-to-head history: Season Away Home Winner ------ ------- ------- ------ 2024 WVU 38 OKST 14 WVU 2023 OKST 48 WVU 34 OKST Injury/hazard flags: Player Pos Team Status ---------------- --- ---- ------------ Jake Springfield OL OKST Questionable ------------------------------------------------------------ Generated by spreadsim.com's model. See spreadsim.com/methodology for how these numbers are computed. spreadsim.com/games/10268