Kansas State at Cincinnati NCAA, Week 4, 2026 regular season Kickoff: September 26, 2026 at 4:00 AM UTC Status: scheduled ============================================================ WHAT TO EXPECT ============================================================ spreadsim's model favors Kansas State by 2.1 points, giving them a 55% chance to win outright. It projects a total of 62.8 combined points, with Cincinnati at 30.5 and Kansas State at 32.5. Simulating the game 10,000 times, Cincinnati's margin lands between -24.2 and +20.6 points 80% of the time -- a real range, not a single guessed score. ============================================================ THE PREDICTION IN DETAIL ============================================================ Spread: Cincinnati +2.1 / Kansas State -2.1 Moneyline: Cincinnati +121 / Kansas State -121 Win probability: Cincinnati 45.1% / Kansas State 54.9% Projected total: 62.8 points Last recalculated: September 8, 2026 at 6:01 AM UTC This comes from each team's Elo rating -- Cincinnati: 1493.9, Kansas State: 1567.8 -- plus a +65.0-point home-field edge, adjusted by these real per-team factors (16.2 Elo points per spread point): Adjustment factor Cincinnati Kansas State ----------------- ---------- ------------ elevation +0.0 +0.0 injury_hazard +0.0 +0.0 roster_talent -22.2 +34.4 travel_fatigue +4.0 +0.0 coaching_change +9.5 -33.5 ncaa_efficiency -4.6 +20.0 blowout_hangover +0.0 +0.0 home_field_vector +9.3 -- consecutive_road -- +0.0 ============================================================ HOW THIS COMPARES TO THE MARKET ============================================================ No market line available for this game yet. ============================================================ RANGE OF LIKELY OUTCOMES ============================================================ Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations. Projected score: Kansas State 32.5 -- Cincinnati 30.5 Percentile 10th 25th 50th 75th 90th ----------------- ----- ----- ---- ---- ----- Cincinnati margin -24.2 -13.5 -2.2 +9.6 +20.6 Total points 41.3 51.8 62.9 74.2 84.8 ============================================================ PLAYER PROPS: WHAT TO EXPECT ============================================================ Individual player projections, with each stat's real 68% likely range or touchdown probability: CINCINNATI Player Pos Stat Proj. 68% range / TD odds ----------------- --- --------------- ----- ------------------- JC French IV QB Passing yards 225.4 141-324 Pass attempts 28.1 20-36 Completions 18.7 12-24 Passing TDs 1.33 74% 1+, 38% 2+ Rushing yards 36.4 -- Rushing TDs 0.66 48% 1+, 14% 2+ Gi'Bran Payne RB Rushing yards 66.3 25-131 Carries 10.4 5-17 Rushing TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Cole Tabb RB Rushing yards 60.0 19-107 Carries 11.2 6-20 Rushing TDs 0.22 20% 1+ Receiving yards 17.1 -- Receptions 2.3 1-3 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Cade Wolford WR Rushing yards 18.8 -- Rushing TDs 0.12 11% 1+ Receiving yards 37.7 2-67 Receptions 1.9 -- Receiving TDs 0.31 27% 1+ JV Gibson WR Receiving yards 32.1 -- Receptions 2.9 1-4 Receiving TDs 0.21 19% 1+ Gavin Grover TE Receiving yards 32.1 8-55 Receptions 1.9 0-2 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Isaiah Johnson WR Receiving yards 21.2 -- Receptions 1.8 -- Receiving TDs 0.10 10% 1+ Jasper Beeler S Tackles 6.9 4-11 Jonathan Thompson LB Tackles 6.6 4-8 Montay Weedon LB Sacks 0.25 22% 1+ Chidera Otutu DL Sacks 0.25 22% 1+ KANSAS STATE Player Pos Stat Proj. 68% range / TD odds ----------------- --- --------------- ----- ------------------- Avery Johnson QB Passing yards 223.0 138-311 Pass attempts 27.8 19-37 Completions 16.7 10-23 Passing TDs 1.68 81% 1+, 50% 2+ Rushing yards 52.5 12-85 Rushing TDs 0.84 57% 1+, 21% 2+ Joe Jackson RB Rushing yards 82.8 42-199 Carries 13.4 8-22 Rushing TDs 0.99 63% 1+, 26% 2+ Receiving yards 21.0 2-38 Receptions 2.7 2-4 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Rodney Fields Jr. RB Rushing yards 77.2 36-136 Carries 12.6 7-18 Rushing TDs 0.12 12% 1+ Receiving yards 32.9 14-66 Receptions 3.2 2-5 Receiving TDs 0.12 12% 1+ Jaron Tibbs WR Receiving yards 58.4 23-75 Receptions 4.1 2-6 Receiving TDs 0.17 15% 1+ Brandon White WR Receiving yards 42.4 7-66 Receptions 3.5 2-6 Receiving TDs 0.33 28% 1+ Garrett Oakley TE Receiving yards 39.0 15-64 Receptions 3.5 2-5 Receiving TDs 0.68 49% 1+, 15% 2+ Josh Manning WR Receiving yards 34.1 -- Receptions 2.7 0-5 Receiving TDs 0.17 15% 1+ Linkon Cure TE Receiving yards 17.5 -- Receptions 2.1 0-3 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Mekhi Mason LB Tackles 5.1 2-7 Zashon Rich CB Tackles 4.7 3-7 Elijah Hill DE Sacks 0.81 56% 1+, 20% 2+ Jordan Allen DE Sacks 0.36 30% 1+, 5% 2+ ============================================================ GAME CONTEXT ============================================================ Cincinnati recent form: 1-4 over last 5 games Kansas State recent form: 3-2 over last 5 games Head-to-head history: Season Away Home Winner ------ ------ ------ ------ 2024 CIN 15 KSU 41 KSU ------------------------------------------------------------ Generated by spreadsim.com's model. See spreadsim.com/methodology for how these numbers are computed. spreadsim.com/games/10269