South Carolina at Alabama NCAA, Week 4, 2026 regular season Kickoff: September 26, 2026 at 4:00 AM UTC Status: scheduled ============================================================ WHAT TO EXPECT ============================================================ spreadsim's model favors Alabama by 16.9 points, giving them a 83% chance to win outright. It projects a total of 40.7 combined points, with Alabama at 28.9 and South Carolina at 12.0. Simulating the game 10,000 times, Alabama's margin lands between -5.3 and +39.2 points 80% of the time -- a real range, not a single guessed score. ============================================================ THE PREDICTION IN DETAIL ============================================================ Spread: Alabama -16.9 / South Carolina +16.9 Moneyline: Alabama -484 / South Carolina +484 Win probability: Alabama 82.9% / South Carolina 17.1% Projected total: 40.7 points Last recalculated: September 8, 2026 at 6:01 AM UTC This comes from each team's Elo rating -- Alabama: 1710.3, South Carolina: 1522.4 -- plus a +65.0-point home-field edge, adjusted by these real per-team factors (16.2 Elo points per spread point): Adjustment factor Alabama South Carolina ----------------- ------- -------------- elevation +0.0 +0.0 injury_hazard +0.0 +0.0 roster_talent +100.0 +100.0 travel_fatigue +4.0 +2.9 coaching_change +9.5 +9.5 ncaa_efficiency +20.0 +20.0 blowout_hangover +0.0 +0.0 home_field_vector +20.0 -- consecutive_road -- +0.0 ============================================================ HOW THIS COMPARES TO THE MARKET ============================================================ No market line available for this game yet. ============================================================ RANGE OF LIKELY OUTCOMES ============================================================ Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations. Projected score: South Carolina 12.0 -- Alabama 28.9 Percentile 10th 25th 50th 75th 90th -------------- ---- ---- ----- ----- ----- Alabama margin -5.3 +5.3 +16.8 +28.4 +39.2 Total points 19.4 29.6 40.7 52.2 62.3 ============================================================ PLAYER PROPS: WHAT TO EXPECT ============================================================ Individual player projections, with each stat's real 68% likely range or touchdown probability: ALABAMA Player Pos Stat Proj. 68% range / TD odds --------------------- --- --------------- ----- ------------------- Austin Mack QB Passing yards 105.6 21-161 Pass attempts 17.3 8-25 Completions 11.3 5-17 Passing TDs 0.42 34% 1+, 7% 2+ Rushing yards 6.6 -- Rushing TDs 0.00 0% 1+ AK Dear RB Rushing yards 51.3 10-96 Carries 7.1 2-9 Rushing TDs 0.31 27% 1+ Ryan Coleman-Williams WR Rushing yards 13.6 -- Rushing TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Receiving yards 48.3 13-84 Receptions 4.0 2-6 Receiving TDs 0.09 8% 1+ Daniel Hill RB Rushing yards 40.7 -- Carries 9.5 4-14 Rushing TDs 0.71 51% 1+, 16% 2+ Receiving yards 23.8 4-53 Receptions 3.1 2-5 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Lotzeir Brooks WR Rushing yards 3.5 -- Rushing TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Receiving yards 36.8 1-62 Receptions 3.2 1-5 Receiving TDs 0.17 16% 1+ Noah Rogers WR Receiving yards 35.0 -- Receptions 3.3 1-5 Receiving TDs 0.09 8% 1+ Josh Ford TE Receiving yards 33.8 10-51 Receptions 1.4 2-2 Receiving TDs 0.43 35% 1+, 7% 2+ Kaleb Edwards TE Receiving yards 31.2 8-49 Receptions 2.0 0-3 Receiving TDs 0.16 15% 1+ Caleb Woodson LB Tackles 5.5 2-9 Bray Hubbard DB Tackles 5.2 3-8 Yhonzae Pierre LB Sacks 0.62 46% 1+, 13% 2+ Devan Thompkins DL Sacks 0.31 27% 1+ SOUTH CAROLINA Player Pos Stat Proj. 68% range / TD odds ---------------- --- --------------- ----- ------------------- LaNorris Sellers QB Passing yards 192.4 108-271 Pass attempts 28.9 20-36 Completions 17.6 12-20 Passing TDs 1.43 76% 1+, 42% 2+ Rushing yards 21.3 -- Rushing TDs 0.48 38% 1+, 8% 2+ Jayden Sellers WR Receiving yards 49.2 14-81 Receptions 4.2 2-6 Receiving TDs 0.19 18% 1+ Nyck Harbor WR Receiving yards 46.4 11-78 Receptions 3.4 2-5 Receiving TDs 0.60 45% 1+, 12% 2+ Donovan Murph WR Receiving yards 36.7 1-62 Receptions 3.0 1-4 Receiving TDs 0.48 38% 1+, 8% 2+ Matt Fuller RB Rushing yards 31.6 -- Carries 8.9 4-13 Rushing TDs 0.20 18% 1+ Receiving yards 9.5 -- Receptions 2.3 1-3 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Christian Clark RB Rushing yards 31.1 -- Carries 9.4 4-16 Rushing TDs 0.20 18% 1+ Receiving yards 15.0 -- Receptions 2.3 1-3 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Brady Hunt TE Receiving yards 14.8 -- Receptions 2.5 1-4 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Max Drag TE Receiving yards 9.8 -- Receptions 1.4 2-2 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Justin Okoronkwo LB Tackles 5.7 3-8 Fred Johnson LB Tackles 5.0 2-7 Drew Collins DE Sacks 0.33 28% 1+ Caleb Herring DE Sacks 0.31 27% 1+ ============================================================ GAME CONTEXT ============================================================ Alabama recent form: 3-2 over last 5 games South Carolina recent form: 2-3 over last 5 games Head-to-head history: Season Away Home Winner ------ ------ ------ ------ 2025 ALA 29 SC 22 ALA 2024 SC 25 ALA 27 ALA ------------------------------------------------------------ Generated by spreadsim.com's model. See spreadsim.com/methodology for how these numbers are computed. spreadsim.com/games/10270