Boise State at Western Michigan NCAA, Week 4, 2026 regular season Kickoff: September 26, 2026 at 4:00 AM UTC Status: scheduled ============================================================ WHAT TO EXPECT ============================================================ spreadsim's model favors Western Michigan by 3.6 points, giving them a 58% chance to win outright. It projects a total of 37.3 combined points, with Western Michigan at 20.4 and Boise State at 17.0. Simulating the game 10,000 times, Western Michigan's margin lands between -19.0 and +26.0 points 80% of the time -- a real range, not a single guessed score. ============================================================ THE PREDICTION IN DETAIL ============================================================ Spread: Western Michigan -3.6 / Boise State +3.6 Moneyline: Western Michigan -140 / Boise State +140 Win probability: Western Michigan 58.3% / Boise State 41.7% Projected total: 37.3 points Last recalculated: September 8, 2026 at 6:01 AM UTC This comes from each team's Elo rating -- Western Michigan: 1570.8, Boise State: 1557.5 -- plus a +65.0-point home-field edge, adjusted by these real per-team factors (16.2 Elo points per spread point): Adjustment factor Western Michigan Boise State ----------------- ---------------- ----------- elevation +0.0 +0.0 injury_hazard +0.0 +0.0 roster_talent -58.8 -18.1 travel_fatigue +3.7 -1.6 coaching_change +9.5 +9.5 ncaa_efficiency -20.0 -20.0 blowout_hangover +0.0 +0.0 home_field_vector +15.3 -- consecutive_road -- +0.0 ============================================================ HOW THIS COMPARES TO THE MARKET ============================================================ No market line available for this game yet. ============================================================ RANGE OF LIKELY OUTCOMES ============================================================ Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations. Projected score: Boise State 17.0 -- Western Michigan 20.4 Percentile 10th 25th 50th 75th 90th ----------------------- ----- ---- ---- ----- ----- Western Michigan margin -19.0 -8.4 +3.5 +15.5 +26.0 Total points 16.1 25.6 37.4 48.7 59.0 ============================================================ PLAYER PROPS: WHAT TO EXPECT ============================================================ Individual player projections, with each stat's real 68% likely range or touchdown probability: WESTERN MICHIGAN Player Pos Stat Proj. 68% range / TD odds ------------------ --- --------------- ----- ------------------- Broc Lowry QB Passing yards 119.3 35-159 Pass attempts 20.9 12-28 Completions 13.1 7-18 Passing TDs 0.49 39% 1+, 9% 2+ Rushing yards 54.7 15-82 Rushing TDs 0.86 58% 1+, 21% 2+ Jalen Buckley RB Rushing yards 83.6 43-151 Carries 13.2 8-19 Rushing TDs 1.08 66% 1+, 29% 2+ Receiving yards 18.6 -- Receptions 2.2 1-3 Receiving TDs 0.14 13% 1+ Aveion Chenault WR Rushing yards 20.8 -- Rushing TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Receiving yards 32.8 -- Receptions 3.0 1-5 Receiving TDs 0.11 11% 1+ Baylin Brooks WR Receiving yards 28.4 -- Receptions 2.2 -- Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Ofa Mataele RB Rushing yards 25.3 -- Carries 5.7 -- Rushing TDs 0.14 13% 1+ Receiving yards 6.9 -- Receptions 2.1 1-3 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Jarvarius Sims CB Tackles 4.9 3-8 Micah Davis S Tackles 4.8 2-7 DeJuan Echoles Jr. DE Sacks 0.38 31% 1+, 6% 2+ Amarian Louis CB Sacks 0.33 28% 1+ BOISE STATE Player Pos Stat Proj. 68% range / TD odds -------------------- --- --------------- ----- ------------------- Maddux Madsen QB Passing yards 135.8 51-212 Pass attempts 26.7 18-38 Completions 15.6 10-23 Passing TDs 1.11 67% 1+, 30% 2+ Rushing yards 5.8 -- Rushing TDs 0.28 24% 1+ Dylan Riley RB Rushing yards 58.4 18-94 Carries 13.1 8-20 Rushing TDs 0.45 36% 1+, 8% 2+ Receiving yards 12.4 -- Receptions 2.0 0-3 Receiving TDs 0.11 11% 1+ Sire Gaines RB Rushing yards 58.1 17-102 Carries 11.6 6-17 Rushing TDs 0.45 36% 1+, 8% 2+ Receiving yards 17.7 -- Receptions 2.1 1-3 Receiving TDs 0.23 20% 1+ Ben Ford WR Receiving yards 36.4 1-58 Receptions 3.1 1-5 Receiving TDs 0.36 30% 1+, 5% 2+ Quinton Brown WR Rushing yards 11.2 -- Rushing TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Receiving yards 35.4 -- Receptions 1.8 -- Receiving TDs 0.42 34% 1+, 7% 2+ Cam Bates WR Rushing yards 20.7 -- Rushing TDs 0.21 19% 1+ Receiving yards 34.3 -- Receptions 2.3 0-3 Receiving TDs 0.21 19% 1+ Matt Wagner TE Receiving yards 14.9 -- Receptions 2.5 1-4 Receiving TDs 0.20 18% 1+ Boen Phelps LB Tackles 5.8 3-8 Travis Anderson DB Tackles 4.5 2-10 Sterling Lane II LB Sacks 1.00 63% 1+, 26% 2+ Jayden Virgin-Morgan LB Sacks 0.44 36% 1+, 7% 2+ ============================================================ GAME CONTEXT ============================================================ Western Michigan recent form: 4-1 over last 5 games Boise State recent form: 3-2 over last 5 games ------------------------------------------------------------ Generated by spreadsim.com's model. See spreadsim.com/methodology for how these numbers are computed. spreadsim.com/games/10271