Texas A&M at LSU NCAA, Week 4, 2026 regular season Kickoff: September 26, 2026 at 4:00 AM UTC Status: scheduled ============================================================ WHAT TO EXPECT ============================================================ spreadsim's model favors Texas A&M by 1.7 points, giving them a 54% chance to win outright. It projects a total of 50.9 combined points, with LSU at 24.3 and Texas A&M at 26.5. Simulating the game 10,000 times, LSU's margin lands between -24.3 and +20.7 points 80% of the time -- a real range, not a single guessed score. ============================================================ THE PREDICTION IN DETAIL ============================================================ Spread: LSU +1.7 / Texas A&M -1.7 Moneyline: LSU +117 / Texas A&M -117 Win probability: LSU 46.0% / Texas A&M 54.0% Projected total: 50.9 points Last recalculated: September 8, 2026 at 6:01 AM UTC This comes from each team's Elo rating -- LSU: 1605.2, Texas A&M: 1682.3 -- plus a +65.0-point home-field edge, adjusted by these real per-team factors (16.2 Elo points per spread point): Adjustment factor LSU Texas A&M ----------------- ------ --------- elevation +0.0 +0.0 injury_hazard +0.0 +0.0 roster_talent +100.0 +100.0 travel_fatigue +4.0 +3.1 coaching_change -26.8 +9.5 ncaa_efficiency +20.0 +20.0 blowout_hangover +0.0 +0.0 home_field_vector +19.9 -- consecutive_road -- +0.0 ============================================================ HOW THIS COMPARES TO THE MARKET ============================================================ No market line available for this game yet. Line movement: opened LSU -3.0 (July 13, 2026 at 7:21 AM UTC), now -3.0 (August 10, 2026 at 12:20 PM UTC), 115 snapshots on record. ============================================================ RANGE OF LIKELY OUTCOMES ============================================================ Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations. Projected score: Texas A&M 26.5 -- LSU 24.3 Percentile 10th 25th 50th 75th 90th ------------ ----- ----- ---- ---- ----- LSU margin -24.3 -13.6 -2.1 +9.7 +20.7 Total points 29.6 39.7 50.7 61.9 72.2 ============================================================ PLAYER PROPS: WHAT TO EXPECT ============================================================ Individual player projections, with each stat's real 68% likely range or touchdown probability: LSU Player Pos Stat Proj. 68% range / TD odds --------------------- --- --------------- ----- ------------------- Sam Leavitt QB Passing yards 172.3 88-237 Pass attempts 31.5 23-41 Completions 19.1 13-26 Passing TDs 1.11 67% 1+, 30% 2+ Rushing yards 33.4 -- Rushing TDs 0.61 46% 1+, 13% 2+ Jackson Harris WR Receiving yards 79.8 44-117 Receptions 4.6 2-7 Receiving TDs 1.29 72% 1+, 37% 2+ Dilin Jones RB Rushing yards 61.6 21-102 Carries 11.7 6-18 Rushing TDs 0.40 33% 1+, 6% 2+ Receiving yards 8.7 -- Receptions 2.1 1-3 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Harlem Berry RB Rushing yards 59.1 18-87 Carries 10.8 5-16 Rushing TDs 0.10 10% 1+ Receiving yards 16.6 -- Receptions 2.4 1-3 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Jayce Brown WR Rushing yards 31.0 -- Rushing TDs 0.23 21% 1+ Receiving yards 53.6 18-99 Receptions 3.4 2-5 Receiving TDs 0.35 30% 1+ Trey'Dez Green TE Receiving yards 49.8 26-87 Receptions 3.7 2-6 Receiving TDs 0.51 40% 1+, 9% 2+ Tre' Brown WR Receiving yards 48.3 13-96 Receptions 3.0 1-5 Receiving TDs 0.35 30% 1+ Malachi Thomas TE Receiving yards 24.7 1-35 Receptions 2.0 0-3 Receiving TDs 0.09 8% 1+ Davhon Keys LB Tackles 7.1 4-11 Ty Benefield S Tackles 7.0 4-10 Princewill Umanmielen DE Sacks 1.06 65% 1+, 29% 2+ Jordan Ross DE Sacks 0.31 27% 1+ TEXAS A&M Player Pos Stat Proj. 68% range / TD odds ------------------- --- --------------- ----- ------------------- Marcel Reed QB Passing yards 220.9 136-299 Pass attempts 30.7 22-37 Completions 19.5 14-24 Passing TDs 1.30 73% 1+, 37% 2+ Rushing yards 37.8 -- Rushing TDs 0.40 33% 1+, 6% 2+ Mario Craver WR Rushing yards 16.7 -- Rushing TDs 0.13 12% 1+ Receiving yards 43.3 8-68 Receptions 4.0 2-6 Receiving TDs 0.10 10% 1+ Ashton Bethel-Roman WR Receiving yards 42.9 7-83 Receptions 2.8 0-4 Receiving TDs 0.30 26% 1+ Rueben Owens II RB Rushing yards 42.1 1-63 Carries 11.7 6-16 Rushing TDs 0.50 40% 1+, 9% 2+ Receiving yards 14.8 -- Receptions 2.2 1-3 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Isaiah Horton WR Receiving yards 34.8 -- Receptions 3.2 1-5 Receiving TDs 0.50 39% 1+, 9% 2+ Richie Anderson III TE Receiving yards 33.6 10-61 Receptions 3.2 2-6 Receiving TDs 0.19 18% 1+ Houston Thomas TE Receiving yards 32.2 8-60 Receptions 3.1 2-5 Receiving TDs 0.19 18% 1+ Jamarion Morrow RB Rushing yards 19.8 -- Carries 7.0 2-10 Rushing TDs 0.20 18% 1+ Receiving yards 15.6 -- Receptions 2.1 1-3 Receiving TDs 0.32 28% 1+ Ray Coney LB Tackles 8.9 6-12 Tawfiq Byard S Tackles 6.5 4-10 Ryan Henderson DE Sacks 0.88 58% 1+, 22% 2+ Dalton Brooks S Sacks 0.38 31% 1+, 6% 2+ ============================================================ GAME CONTEXT ============================================================ LSU recent form: 3-2 over last 5 games Texas A&M recent form: 3-2 over last 5 games Head-to-head history: Season Away Home Winner ------ ------- ------- ------ 2025 TA&M 49 LSU 25 TA&M 2024 LSU 23 TA&M 38 TA&M 2023 TA&M 30 LSU 42 LSU ------------------------------------------------------------ Generated by spreadsim.com's model. See spreadsim.com/methodology for how these numbers are computed. spreadsim.com/games/10272