Colorado State at UTSA NCAA, Week 4, 2026 regular season Kickoff: September 26, 2026 at 4:00 AM UTC Status: scheduled ============================================================ WHAT TO EXPECT ============================================================ spreadsim's model favors UTSA by 19.7 points, giving them a 86% chance to win outright. It projects a total of 69.8 combined points, with UTSA at 44.9 and Colorado State at 25.2. Simulating the game 10,000 times, UTSA's margin lands between -2.7 and +42.2 points 80% of the time -- a real range, not a single guessed score. ============================================================ THE PREDICTION IN DETAIL ============================================================ Spread: UTSA -19.7 / Colorado State +19.7 Moneyline: UTSA -633 / Colorado State +633 Win probability: UTSA 86.4% / Colorado State 13.6% Projected total: 69.8 points Last recalculated: September 8, 2026 at 6:01 AM UTC This comes from each team's Elo rating -- UTSA: 1551.8, Colorado State: 1360.2 -- plus a +65.0-point home-field edge, adjusted by these real per-team factors (16.2 Elo points per spread point): Adjustment factor UTSA Colorado State ----------------- ----- -------------- elevation +0.0 +0.0 injury_hazard +0.0 +0.0 roster_talent -11.9 -18.7 travel_fatigue +0.0 +1.4 coaching_change +11.8 -26.8 ncaa_efficiency +20.0 +20.0 blowout_hangover +0.0 +0.0 home_field_vector +20.0 -- consecutive_road -- +0.0 ============================================================ HOW THIS COMPARES TO THE MARKET ============================================================ No market line available for this game yet. ============================================================ RANGE OF LIKELY OUTCOMES ============================================================ Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations. Projected score: Colorado State 25.2 -- UTSA 44.9 Percentile 10th 25th 50th 75th 90th ------------ ---- ---- ----- ----- ----- UTSA margin -2.7 +8.0 +19.6 +31.6 +42.2 Total points 48.8 58.9 70.1 81.2 91.6 ============================================================ PLAYER PROPS: WHAT TO EXPECT ============================================================ Individual player projections, with each stat's real 68% likely range or touchdown probability: UTSA Player Pos Stat Proj. 68% range / TD odds ------------------ --- --------------- ----- ------------------- Owen McCown QB Passing yards 251.4 167-346 Pass attempts 29.5 20-38 Completions 20.0 14-27 Passing TDs 2.65 93% 1+, 74% 2+ Rushing yards 4.1 -- Rushing TDs 0.13 12% 1+ Will Henderson III RB Rushing yards 79.8 39-147 Carries 11.0 6-18 Rushing TDs 1.00 63% 1+, 26% 2+ Receiving yards 20.1 1-39 Receptions 2.2 1-3 Receiving TDs 0.33 28% 1+ David Amador II WR Rushing yards 4.9 -- Rushing TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Receiving yards 47.6 12-84 Receptions 4.2 2-7 Receiving TDs 0.50 40% 1+, 9% 2+ AJ Wilson Jr. WR Receiving yards 47.3 12-75 Receptions 3.2 1-4 Receiving TDs 0.25 22% 1+ Brandon High Jr. RB Rushing yards 47.1 6-70 Carries 8.8 3-13 Rushing TDs 0.33 28% 1+ DJ Allen Jr. WR Receiving yards 33.1 -- Receptions 2.6 0-4 Receiving TDs 0.50 40% 1+, 9% 2+ Brandon Tucker LB Tackles 3.6 0-6 James Walley Jr. LB Tackles 3.3 0-5 Sacks 0.33 28% 1+ Elijah Baldwin LB Sacks 0.44 36% 1+, 7% 2+ COLORADO STATE Player Pos Stat Proj. 68% range / TD odds --------------- --- --------------- ----- ------------------- Darius Curry QB Passing yards 177.4 93-301 Pass attempts 26.5 18-46 Completions 16.7 10-29 Passing TDs 1.13 68% 1+, 31% 2+ Rushing yards 11.2 -- Rushing TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Mel Brown RB Rushing yards 46.1 5-74 Carries 8.8 4-12 Rushing TDs 0.30 26% 1+ Receiving yards 14.8 -- Receptions 2.2 2-2 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Durell Robinson RB Rushing yards 44.2 3-73 Carries 9.9 4-17 Rushing TDs 0.25 22% 1+ Tommy Maher WR Receiving yards 36.5 1-53 Receptions 3.0 1-5 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Juice Vereen TE Receiving yards 32.3 9-57 Receptions 2.7 2-4 Receiving TDs 1.04 65% 1+, 28% 2+ Jordan Mosley WR Receiving yards 31.2 -- Receptions 2.4 0-4 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Lavon Brown WR Receiving yards 29.8 -- Receptions 2.7 0-4 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Oumar Diomande LB Tackles 9.4 6-13 Sacks 0.38 31% 1+, 6% 2+ Jace Bellah S Tackles 6.7 4-12 Stephon Wright DL Sacks 0.38 31% 1+, 6% 2+ ============================================================ GAME CONTEXT ============================================================ UTSA recent form: 3-2 over last 5 games Colorado State recent form: 1-4 over last 5 games Head-to-head history: Season Away Home Winner ------ ------- ------ ------ 2025 UTSA 17 CSU 16 UTSA ------------------------------------------------------------ Generated by spreadsim.com's model. See spreadsim.com/methodology for how these numbers are computed. spreadsim.com/games/10273