Vanderbilt at Auburn NCAA, Week 4, 2026 regular season Kickoff: September 26, 2026 at 4:00 AM UTC Status: scheduled ============================================================ WHAT TO EXPECT ============================================================ spreadsim's model favors Vanderbilt by 7.7 points, giving them a 67% chance to win outright. It projects a total of 46.3 combined points, with Auburn at 19.4 and Vanderbilt at 27.2. Simulating the game 10,000 times, Auburn's margin lands between -29.9 and +14.7 points 80% of the time -- a real range, not a single guessed score. ============================================================ THE PREDICTION IN DETAIL ============================================================ Spread: Auburn +7.7 / Vanderbilt -7.7 Moneyline: Auburn +205 / Vanderbilt -205 Win probability: Auburn 32.8% / Vanderbilt 67.2% Projected total: 46.3 points Last recalculated: September 8, 2026 at 6:01 AM UTC This comes from each team's Elo rating -- Auburn: 1479.5, Vanderbilt: 1657.1 -- plus a +65.0-point home-field edge, adjusted by these real per-team factors (16.2 Elo points per spread point): Adjustment factor Auburn Vanderbilt ----------------- ------ ---------- elevation +0.0 +0.0 injury_hazard +0.0 +0.0 roster_talent +92.0 +40.8 travel_fatigue +4.0 +0.0 coaching_change -26.8 +11.8 ncaa_efficiency -20.0 +12.0 blowout_hangover +0.0 +0.0 home_field_vector +3.2 -- consecutive_road -- +0.0 ============================================================ HOW THIS COMPARES TO THE MARKET ============================================================ No market line available for this game yet. ============================================================ RANGE OF LIKELY OUTCOMES ============================================================ Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations. Projected score: Vanderbilt 27.2 -- Auburn 19.4 Percentile 10th 25th 50th 75th 90th ------------- ----- ----- ---- ---- ----- Auburn margin -29.9 -19.6 -8.0 +4.0 +14.7 Total points 25.1 35.5 46.8 57.8 68.3 ============================================================ PLAYER PROPS: WHAT TO EXPECT ============================================================ Individual player projections, with each stat's real 68% likely range or touchdown probability: AUBURN Player Pos Stat Proj. 68% range / TD odds ----------------- --- --------------- ----- ------------------- Byrum Brown QB Passing yards 296.6 212-345 Pass attempts 28.7 20-38 Completions 19.6 14-25 Passing TDs 2.65 93% 1+, 74% 2+ Rushing yards 83.8 44-126 Rushing TDs 1.76 83% 1+, 53% 2+ Keshaun Singleton WR Receiving yards 71.7 36-94 Receptions 5.0 3-6 Receiving TDs 0.76 53% 1+, 18% 2+ Jeremiah Cobb RB Rushing yards 66.0 25-114 Carries 12.9 8-20 Rushing TDs 0.21 19% 1+ Receiving yards 18.3 -- Receptions 2.6 2-4 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Nykahi Davenport RB Rushing yards 59.1 18-98 Carries 10.4 5-15 Rushing TDs 0.53 41% 1+, 10% 2+ Receiving yards 14.7 -- Receptions 2.1 1-3 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Chas Nimrod WR Receiving yards 52.2 16-90 Receptions 3.8 2-5 Receiving TDs 0.17 16% 1+ Jeremiah Koger WR Receiving yards 51.8 16-83 Receptions 4.2 2-6 Receiving TDs 0.63 47% 1+, 13% 2+ Jake Johnson TE Receiving yards 40.7 17-69 Receptions 2.9 2-4 Receiving TDs 0.17 16% 1+ Jonathan Echols TE Receiving yards 27.2 4-42 Receptions 1.7 -- Receiving TDs 0.29 25% 1+ Xavier Atkins LB Tackles 7.9 5-11 Sacks 1.00 63% 1+, 26% 2+ Kaleb Harris S Tackles 4.9 2-8 Cody Sigler DL Sacks 0.44 36% 1+, 7% 2+ VANDERBILT Player Pos Stat Proj. 68% range / TD odds ----------------- --- --------------- ----- ------------------- Junior Sherrill WR Receiving yards 70.9 35-118 Receptions 4.3 2-7 Receiving TDs 0.27 24% 1+ Blaze Berlowitz QB Passing yards 67.4 -- Pass attempts 7.0 -- Completions 4.6 -- Passing TDs 0.19 18% 1+ Rushing yards 26.0 -- Rushing TDs 0.24 21% 1+ Ja'Cory Thomas WR Receiving yards 57.2 22-74 Receptions 3.3 2-5 Receiving TDs 0.27 24% 1+ Cole Spence TE Receiving yards 50.2 26-79 Receptions 2.6 1-4 Receiving TDs 0.22 19% 1+ Tristen Brown WR Receiving yards 40.4 5-72 Receptions 2.5 0-4 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Jayvontay Conner TE Receiving yards 38.3 15-63 Receptions 2.5 1-4 Receiving TDs 0.19 17% 1+ Sedrick Alexander RB Rushing yards 37.2 -- Carries 9.3 4-14 Rushing TDs 0.58 44% 1+, 12% 2+ Receiving yards 15.5 -- Receptions 2.5 1-4 Receiving TDs 0.17 15% 1+ Jamezell Lassiter RB Rushing yards 33.9 -- Carries 5.6 -- Rushing TDs 0.17 15% 1+ Receiving yards 14.1 -- Receptions 1.4 2-2 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Bryan Longwell LB Tackles 6.4 4-11 CJ Heard S Tackles 5.9 4-8 Bryce Cowan LB Sacks 0.25 22% 1+ Nick Rinaldi LB Sacks 0.19 17% 1+ ============================================================ GAME CONTEXT ============================================================ Auburn recent form: 2-3 over last 5 games Vanderbilt recent form: 3-2 over last 5 games Head-to-head history: Season Away Home Winner ------ ------ ------ ------ 2025 AUB 38 VAN 45 VAN 2024 VAN 17 AUB 7 VAN 2023 AUB 31 VAN 15 AUB ------------------------------------------------------------ Generated by spreadsim.com's model. See spreadsim.com/methodology for how these numbers are computed. spreadsim.com/games/10274