Oklahoma at Georgia NCAA, Week 4, 2026 regular season Kickoff: September 26, 2026 at 4:00 AM UTC Status: scheduled ============================================================ WHAT TO EXPECT ============================================================ spreadsim's model favors Georgia by 12.3 points, giving them a 76% chance to win outright. It projects a total of 40.4 combined points, with Georgia at 26.2 and Oklahoma at 14.3. Simulating the game 10,000 times, Georgia's margin lands between -10.1 and +34.2 points 80% of the time -- a real range, not a single guessed score. ============================================================ THE PREDICTION IN DETAIL ============================================================ Spread: Georgia -12.3 / Oklahoma +12.3 Moneyline: Georgia -316 / Oklahoma +316 Win probability: Georgia 76.0% / Oklahoma 24.0% Projected total: 40.4 points Last recalculated: September 8, 2026 at 6:01 AM UTC This comes from each team's Elo rating -- Georgia: 1774.4, Oklahoma: 1647.4 -- plus a +65.0-point home-field edge, adjusted by these real per-team factors (16.2 Elo points per spread point): Adjustment factor Georgia Oklahoma ----------------- ------- -------- elevation +0.0 +0.0 injury_hazard +0.0 +0.0 roster_talent +100.0 +100.0 travel_fatigue +0.0 +1.6 coaching_change +11.8 +9.5 ncaa_efficiency +20.0 +20.0 blowout_hangover +0.0 +0.0 home_field_vector +7.2 -- consecutive_road -- +0.0 ============================================================ HOW THIS COMPARES TO THE MARKET ============================================================ No market line available for this game yet. Line movement: opened Georgia -10.0 (July 13, 2026 at 7:21 AM UTC), now -10.0 (August 10, 2026 at 12:20 PM UTC), 115 snapshots on record. ============================================================ RANGE OF LIKELY OUTCOMES ============================================================ Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations. Projected score: Oklahoma 14.3 -- Georgia 26.2 Percentile 10th 25th 50th 75th 90th -------------- ----- ---- ----- ----- ----- Georgia margin -10.1 +0.4 +11.8 +23.3 +34.2 Total points 18.7 29.2 40.4 51.9 62.4 ============================================================ PLAYER PROPS: WHAT TO EXPECT ============================================================ Individual player projections, with each stat's real 68% likely range or touchdown probability: GEORGIA Player Pos Stat Proj. 68% range / TD odds -------------------- --- --------------- ----- ------------------- Gunner Stockton QB Passing yards 191.7 107-258 Pass attempts 27.6 19-32 Completions 19.1 13-24 Passing TDs 1.81 84% 1+, 54% 2+ Rushing yards 28.2 -- Rushing TDs 0.40 33% 1+, 6% 2+ Nate Frazier RB Rushing yards 43.1 2-73 Carries 13.2 8-15 Rushing TDs 0.33 28% 1+ Receiving yards 10.8 -- Receptions 2.2 1-3 Receiving TDs 0.08 8% 1+ Isiah Canion WR Receiving yards 36.9 1-61 Receptions 3.0 1-4 Receiving TDs 0.19 17% 1+ London Humphreys WR Receiving yards 30.7 -- Receptions 2.1 -- Receiving TDs 0.28 24% 1+ Chauncey Bowens RB Rushing yards 28.6 -- Carries 9.3 4-13 Rushing TDs 0.24 22% 1+ Receiving yards 10.0 -- Receptions 2.5 1-4 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Elyiss Williams TE Receiving yards 25.0 1-40 Receptions 2.1 0-3 Receiving TDs 0.14 13% 1+ Lawson Luckie TE Receiving yards 21.4 -- Receptions 2.4 1-4 Receiving TDs 0.36 30% 1+, 5% 2+ Sacovie White-Helton WR Receiving yards 13.0 -- Receptions 1.2 1-1 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Ja'Marley Riddle S Tackles 6.1 4-9 KJ Bolden DB Tackles 5.6 4-9 Zayden Walker LB Sacks 0.50 39% 1+, 9% 2+ Amaris Williams LB Sacks 0.25 22% 1+ OKLAHOMA Player Pos Stat Proj. 68% range / TD odds ------------------ --- --------------- ----- ------------------- John Mateer QB Passing yards 218.8 134-295 Pass attempts 29.5 20-38 Completions 18.1 12-23 Passing TDs 1.24 71% 1+, 35% 2+ Rushing yards 31.6 -- Rushing TDs 0.34 29% 1+ Isaiah Sategna III WR Rushing yards 15.2 -- Rushing TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Receiving yards 70.2 35-116 Receptions 4.7 2-7 Receiving TDs 0.71 51% 1+, 16% 2+ Trell Harris WR Receiving yards 62.3 27-109 Receptions 4.2 2-6 Receiving TDs 0.35 30% 1+, 5% 2+ Parker Livingstone WR Receiving yards 37.8 2-71 Receptions 2.5 0-4 Receiving TDs 0.35 30% 1+, 5% 2+ Rocky Beers TE Receiving yards 33.9 10-55 Receptions 3.3 2-6 Receiving TDs 0.42 34% 1+, 7% 2+ Xavier Robinson RB Rushing yards 33.6 -- Carries 10.2 4-14 Rushing TDs 0.37 31% 1+, 5% 2+ Receiving yards 10.4 -- Receptions 2.4 1-4 Receiving TDs 0.10 10% 1+ Tory Blaylock RB Rushing yards 29.8 -- Carries 10.6 5-17 Rushing TDs 0.09 9% 1+ Receiving yards 10.4 -- Receptions 2.6 2-4 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Hayden Hansen TE Receiving yards 17.6 -- Receptions 2.4 1-3 Receiving TDs 0.06 6% 1+ Owen Heinecke LB Tackles 7.1 4-10 Kip Lewis LB Tackles 6.2 4-10 Sacks 0.50 39% 1+, 9% 2+ Danny Okoye DL Sacks 0.50 39% 1+, 9% 2+ ============================================================ GAME CONTEXT ============================================================ Georgia recent form: 4-1 over last 5 games Oklahoma recent form: 4-1 over last 5 games ------------------------------------------------------------ Generated by spreadsim.com's model. See spreadsim.com/methodology for how these numbers are computed. spreadsim.com/games/10275