Ole Miss at Florida NCAA, Week 4, 2026 regular season Kickoff: September 26, 2026 at 4:00 AM UTC Status: scheduled ============================================================ WHAT TO EXPECT ============================================================ spreadsim's model favors Ole Miss by 7.5 points, giving them a 67% chance to win outright. It projects a total of 62.4 combined points, with Florida at 27.2 and Ole Miss at 34.7. Simulating the game 10,000 times, Florida's margin lands between -29.7 and +14.6 points 80% of the time -- a real range, not a single guessed score. ============================================================ THE PREDICTION IN DETAIL ============================================================ Spread: Florida +7.5 / Ole Miss -7.5 Moneyline: Florida +202 / Ole Miss -202 Win probability: Florida 33.1% / Ole Miss 66.9% Projected total: 62.4 points Last recalculated: September 8, 2026 at 6:01 AM UTC This comes from each team's Elo rating -- Florida: 1517.7, Ole Miss: 1764.0 -- plus a +65.0-point home-field edge, adjusted by these real per-team factors (16.2 Elo points per spread point): Adjustment factor Florida Ole Miss ----------------- ------- -------- elevation +0.0 +0.0 injury_hazard +0.0 +0.0 roster_talent +100.0 +100.0 travel_fatigue +4.0 +2.4 coaching_change -26.8 -26.8 ncaa_efficiency +20.0 -20.0 blowout_hangover +0.0 +0.0 home_field_vector +17.3 -- consecutive_road -- +0.0 ============================================================ HOW THIS COMPARES TO THE MARKET ============================================================ No market line available for this game yet. ============================================================ RANGE OF LIKELY OUTCOMES ============================================================ Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations. Projected score: Ole Miss 34.7 -- Florida 27.2 Percentile 10th 25th 50th 75th 90th -------------- ----- ----- ---- ---- ----- Florida margin -29.7 -19.1 -7.6 +4.0 +14.6 Total points 40.6 50.7 61.9 73.1 83.3 ============================================================ PLAYER PROPS: WHAT TO EXPECT ============================================================ Individual player projections, with each stat's real 68% likely range or touchdown probability: FLORIDA Player Pos Stat Proj. 68% range / TD odds ------------------ --- --------------- ----- ------------------- Jadan Baugh RB Rushing yards 69.3 28-139 Carries 14.3 8-23 Rushing TDs 0.86 58% 1+, 21% 2+ Receiving yards 18.6 -- Receptions 3.1 2-4 Receiving TDs 0.21 19% 1+ London Montgomery RB Rushing yards 56.9 16-94 Carries 12.1 6-20 Rushing TDs 0.54 42% 1+, 10% 2+ Receiving yards 12.1 -- Receptions 2.4 1-4 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Vernell Brown III WR Receiving yards 55.1 20-98 Receptions 3.8 2-6 Receiving TDs 0.12 11% 1+ Eric Singleton Jr. WR Rushing yards 12.4 -- Rushing TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Receiving yards 47.6 12-80 Receptions 4.6 2-8 Receiving TDs 0.12 11% 1+ Dallas Wilson WR Receiving yards 47.2 12-94 Receptions 3.4 2-5 Receiving TDs 0.56 43% 1+, 11% 2+ Luke Harpring TE Receiving yards 27.9 4-44 Receptions 2.4 1-4 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Lacota Dippre TE Receiving yards 22.5 -- Receptions 2.1 0-3 Receiving TDs 0.26 23% 1+ Myles Graham LB Tackles 7.0 4-9 Alfonzo Allen Jr. S Tackles 6.6 4-12 Kamran James DL Sacks 0.44 36% 1+, 7% 2+ Jayden Woods LB Sacks 0.44 36% 1+, 7% 2+ OLE MISS Player Pos Stat Proj. 68% range / TD odds ------------------ --- --------------- ----- ------------------- Trinidad Chambliss QB Passing yards 306.6 222-383 Pass attempts 33.5 25-42 Completions 21.5 16-27 Passing TDs 1.57 79% 1+, 47% 2+ Rushing yards 35.4 -- Rushing TDs 0.45 36% 1+, 8% 2+ Kewan Lacy RB Rushing yards 94.5 54-162 Carries 15.4 10-23 Rushing TDs 2.30 90% 1+, 67% 2+ Receiving yards 16.4 -- Receptions 2.5 1-4 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Makhi Frazier RB Rushing yards 64.2 23-107 Carries 11.7 6-16 Rushing TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Receiving yards 17.0 -- Receptions 2.7 2-4 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Johntay Cook II WR Receiving yards 59.5 24-104 Receptions 4.2 2-7 Receiving TDs 0.09 9% 1+ Deuce Alexander WR Rushing yards 12.6 -- Rushing TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Receiving yards 59.2 24-124 Receptions 3.3 2-5 Receiving TDs 0.28 24% 1+ Horatio Fields WR Receiving yards 40.3 5-61 Receptions 3.6 2-6 Receiving TDs 0.15 14% 1+ Caleb Odom TE Receiving yards 23.9 0-45 Receptions 2.4 1-4 Receiving TDs 0.14 13% 1+ Keaton Thomas LB Tackles 7.3 4-10 Luke Ferrelli LB Tackles 6.3 4-9 Kam Franklin DE Sacks 0.56 43% 1+, 11% 2+ Suntarine Perkins LB Sacks 0.56 43% 1+, 11% 2+ ============================================================ GAME CONTEXT ============================================================ Florida recent form: 2-3 over last 5 games Ole Miss recent form: 4-1 over last 5 games Head-to-head history: Season Away Home Winner ------ ------- ------- ------ 2025 FLA 24 MISS 34 MISS 2024 MISS 17 FLA 24 FLA ------------------------------------------------------------ Generated by spreadsim.com's model. See spreadsim.com/methodology for how these numbers are computed. spreadsim.com/games/10276