Missouri at Mississippi State NCAA, Week 4, 2026 regular season Kickoff: September 26, 2026 at 4:00 AM UTC Status: scheduled ============================================================ WHAT TO EXPECT ============================================================ spreadsim's model favors Missouri by 5.5 points, giving them a 63% chance to win outright. It projects a total of 55.1 combined points, with Mississippi State at 24.6 and Missouri at 30.4. Simulating the game 10,000 times, Mississippi State's margin lands between -28.3 and +16.3 points 80% of the time -- a real range, not a single guessed score. ============================================================ THE PREDICTION IN DETAIL ============================================================ Spread: Mississippi State +5.5 / Missouri -5.5 Moneyline: Mississippi State +167 / Missouri -167 Win probability: Mississippi State 37.4% / Missouri 62.6% Projected total: 55.1 points Last recalculated: September 8, 2026 at 6:01 AM UTC This comes from each team's Elo rating -- Mississippi State: 1428.5, Missouri: 1570.7 -- plus a +65.0-point home-field edge, adjusted by these real per-team factors (16.2 Elo points per spread point): Adjustment factor Mississippi State Missouri ----------------- ----------------- -------- elevation +0.0 +0.0 injury_hazard +0.0 +0.0 roster_talent +78.0 +100.0 travel_fatigue +4.0 +0.0 coaching_change +9.5 +11.8 ncaa_efficiency +20.0 +20.0 blowout_hangover +0.0 +0.0 home_field_vector +8.3 -- consecutive_road -- +0.0 ============================================================ HOW THIS COMPARES TO THE MARKET ============================================================ No market line available for this game yet. ============================================================ RANGE OF LIKELY OUTCOMES ============================================================ Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations. Projected score: Missouri 30.4 -- Mississippi State 24.6 Percentile 10th 25th 50th 75th 90th ------------------------ ----- ----- ---- ---- ----- Mississippi State margin -28.3 -17.6 -5.7 +6.1 +16.3 Total points 33.3 43.9 55.3 66.4 76.7 ============================================================ PLAYER PROPS: WHAT TO EXPECT ============================================================ Individual player projections, with each stat's real 68% likely range or touchdown probability: MISSISSIPPI STATE Player Pos Stat Proj. 68% range / TD odds ----------------- --- --------------- ----- ------------------- AJ Swann QB Passing yards 180.2 96-306 Pass attempts 30.5 22-46 Completions 18.5 12-30 Passing TDs 1.21 70% 1+, 34% 2+ Rushing yards 4.7 -- Rushing TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Anthony Evans III WR Rushing yards 13.7 -- Rushing TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Receiving yards 65.3 30-98 Receptions 5.2 3-8 Receiving TDs 0.29 25% 1+ Marquis Johnson WR Receiving yards 39.8 4-72 Receptions 3.4 2-5 Receiving TDs 0.19 17% 1+ Fluff Bothwell RB Rushing yards 38.2 -- Carries 12.0 6-18 Rushing TDs 0.16 15% 1+ Receiving yards 11.0 -- Receptions 1.9 0-2 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Sanfrisco Magee WR Receiving yards 37.8 2-49 Receptions 3.2 1-4 Receiving TDs 0.51 40% 1+, 9% 2+ Xavier Gayten RB Rushing yards 21.5 -- Carries 5.9 0-7 Rushing TDs 0.18 17% 1+ Receiving yards 6.9 -- Receptions 1.5 2-2 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Sam West TE Receiving yards 10.3 -- Receptions 1.7 0-2 Receiving TDs 0.22 20% 1+ Marcus Williams S Tackles 6.4 4-10 Isaac Smith S Tackles 6.1 4-10 Will Whitson DL Sacks 0.67 49% 1+, 14% 2+ Kalvin Dinkins DL Sacks 0.25 22% 1+ MISSOURI Player Pos Stat Proj. 68% range / TD odds ------------------- --- --------------- ----- ------------------- Austin Simmons QB Passing yards 183.4 99-353 Pass attempts 22.2 14-37 Completions 13.4 7-23 Passing TDs 0.91 60% 1+, 23% 2+ Rushing yards 21.7 -- Rushing TDs 0.28 25% 1+ Ahmad Hardy RB Rushing yards 94.4 54-207 Carries 14.7 9-21 Rushing TDs 0.81 56% 1+, 20% 2+ Receiving yards 12.4 -- Receptions 1.9 0-2 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Jamal Roberts RB Rushing yards 69.2 28-121 Carries 10.3 5-15 Rushing TDs 0.35 30% 1+ Receiving yards 19.3 -- Receptions 2.3 1-3 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Caleb Goodie Sr. WR Receiving yards 50.6 15-86 Receptions 3.3 2-5 Receiving TDs 0.16 15% 1+ Donovan Olugbode WR Receiving yards 46.6 11-74 Receptions 3.2 1-5 Receiving TDs 0.32 28% 1+ Cayden Lee WR Receiving yards 43.6 8-76 Receptions 3.5 2-6 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Brett Norfleet TE Receiving yards 19.1 -- Receptions 2.8 2-4 Receiving TDs 0.21 19% 1+ Jordon Harris TE Receiving yards 15.3 -- Receptions 1.4 2-2 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Robert Woodyard Jr. LB Tackles 6.2 4-9 Nicholas Rodriguez LB Tackles 6.0 3-10 Sterling Webb DT Sacks 0.25 22% 1+ Mark Hensley DT Sacks 0.12 12% 1+ ============================================================ GAME CONTEXT ============================================================ Mississippi State recent form: 1-4 over last 5 games Missouri recent form: 2-3 over last 5 games Head-to-head history: Season Away Home Winner ------ ------- ------- ------ 2025 MSST 27 MIZ 49 MIZ 2024 MIZ 39 MSST 20 MIZ ------------------------------------------------------------ Generated by spreadsim.com's model. See spreadsim.com/methodology for how these numbers are computed. spreadsim.com/games/10277