Northern Illinois at Georgia State NCAA, Week 4, 2026 regular season Kickoff: September 26, 2026 at 4:00 AM UTC Status: scheduled ============================================================ WHAT TO EXPECT ============================================================ spreadsim's model favors Georgia State by 6.5 points, giving them a 65% chance to win outright. It projects a total of 44.6 combined points, with Georgia State at 25.5 and Northern Illinois at 19.1. Simulating the game 10,000 times, Georgia State's margin lands between -16.1 and +28.8 points 80% of the time -- a real range, not a single guessed score. ============================================================ THE PREDICTION IN DETAIL ============================================================ Spread: Georgia State -6.5 / Northern Illinois +6.5 Moneyline: Georgia State -183 / Northern Illinois +183 Win probability: Georgia State 64.7% / Northern Illinois 35.3% Projected total: 44.6 points Last recalculated: September 8, 2026 at 6:01 AM UTC This comes from each team's Elo rating -- Georgia State: 1270.0, Northern Illinois: 1335.9 -- plus a +65.0-point home-field edge, adjusted by these real per-team factors (16.2 Elo points per spread point): Adjustment factor Georgia State Northern Illinois ----------------- ------------- ----------------- elevation +0.0 +0.0 injury_hazard +0.0 +0.0 roster_talent -72.2 -79.7 travel_fatigue +0.0 +2.0 coaching_change +11.8 -26.8 ncaa_efficiency +20.0 -20.0 blowout_hangover +0.0 -20.0 home_field_vector +2.2 -- consecutive_road -- +0.0 ============================================================ HOW THIS COMPARES TO THE MARKET ============================================================ No market line available for this game yet. ============================================================ RANGE OF LIKELY OUTCOMES ============================================================ Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations. Projected score: Northern Illinois 19.1 -- Georgia State 25.5 Percentile 10th 25th 50th 75th 90th -------------------- ----- ---- ---- ----- ----- Georgia State margin -16.1 -5.1 +6.6 +18.1 +28.8 Total points 23.0 33.2 44.5 55.9 66.2 ============================================================ PLAYER PROPS: WHAT TO EXPECT ============================================================ Individual player projections, with each stat's real 68% likely range or touchdown probability: GEORGIA STATE Player Pos Stat Proj. 68% range / TD odds --------------------- --- --------------- ----- ------------------- Cameran Brown QB Passing yards 126.1 41-200 Pass attempts 24.1 16-38 Completions 15.1 9-24 Passing TDs 1.00 63% 1+, 26% 2+ Rushing yards 23.6 -- Rushing TDs 0.40 33% 1+, 6% 2+ Grant Hollier TE Receiving yards 41.1 17-61 Receptions 2.8 2-4 Receiving TDs 0.57 44% 1+, 11% 2+ Kyle Washington WR Receiving yards 27.2 -- Receptions 2.3 -- Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Dennis Murray Jr. RB Rushing yards 26.0 -- Carries 5.3 -- Rushing TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Receiving yards 22.8 3-48 Receptions 2.5 1-4 Receiving TDs 0.21 19% 1+ DJ Riles WR Receiving yards 25.5 -- Receptions 2.8 1-5 Receiving TDs 0.07 7% 1+ Jaylin Marshall WR Receiving yards 23.9 -- Receptions 2.0 -- Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Jabriel Rhodes-Nelson DE Tackles 4.7 3-8 Sacks 0.19 17% 1+ Jaden Kelly LB Tackles 4.4 2-6 Richard Kramer DE Sacks 0.50 39% 1+, 9% 2+ NORTHERN ILLINOIS Player Pos Stat Proj. 68% range / TD odds ----------------- --- --------------- ----- ------------------- Brady Davidson QB Passing yards 87.2 2-134 Pass attempts 18.2 10-30 Completions 8.8 2-14 Passing TDs 0.47 37% 1+, 8% 2+ Rushing yards 3.4 -- Rushing TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Telly Johnson Jr. RB Rushing yards 60.8 20-109 Carries 10.3 4-13 Rushing TDs 0.45 36% 1+, 8% 2+ Receiving yards 17.2 -- Receptions 2.5 1-4 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Rickey Taylor Jr. WR Receiving yards 44.4 9-76 Receptions 3.1 3-3 Receiving TDs 0.43 35% 1+, 7% 2+ DeAree Rogers WR Receiving yards 34.5 -- Receptions 3.1 1-5 Receiving TDs 0.33 28% 1+ Elijah Porter RB Rushing yards 30.4 -- Carries 5.5 -- Rushing TDs 0.00 0% 1+ La'Don Bryant WR Receiving yards 20.0 -- Receptions 2.3 0-4 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Kimar Nelson LB Tackles 5.5 2-11 Jay'shon Thomas DE Tackles 3.0 2-4 Sacks 0.25 22% 1+ Broderick Windham LB Sacks 0.00 0% 1+ ============================================================ GAME CONTEXT ============================================================ Georgia State recent form: 0-5 over last 5 games Northern Illinois recent form: 1-4 over last 5 games ------------------------------------------------------------ Generated by spreadsim.com's model. See spreadsim.com/methodology for how these numbers are computed. spreadsim.com/games/10278