San Diego State at Toledo NCAA, Week 4, 2026 regular season Kickoff: September 26, 2026 at 4:00 AM UTC Status: scheduled ============================================================ WHAT TO EXPECT ============================================================ spreadsim's model favors Toledo by 1.7 points, giving them a 54% chance to win outright. It projects a total of 31.7 combined points, with Toledo at 16.6 and San Diego State at 15.2. Simulating the game 10,000 times, Toledo's margin lands between -20.5 and +23.6 points 80% of the time -- a real range, not a single guessed score. ============================================================ THE PREDICTION IN DETAIL ============================================================ Spread: Toledo -1.7 / San Diego State +1.7 Moneyline: Toledo -117 / San Diego State +117 Win probability: Toledo 53.9% / San Diego State 46.1% Projected total: 31.7 points Last recalculated: September 8, 2026 at 6:02 AM UTC This comes from each team's Elo rating -- Toledo: 1512.2, San Diego State: 1519.3 -- plus a +65.0-point home-field edge, adjusted by these real per-team factors (16.2 Elo points per spread point): Adjustment factor Toledo San Diego State ----------------- ------ --------------- elevation +0.0 +0.0 injury_hazard +0.0 +0.0 roster_talent -68.2 -46.2 travel_fatigue +3.7 +0.0 coaching_change -26.8 +11.8 ncaa_efficiency +13.0 +5.1 blowout_hangover +0.0 +0.0 home_field_vector +18.5 -- consecutive_road -- +0.0 ============================================================ HOW THIS COMPARES TO THE MARKET ============================================================ No market line available for this game yet. ============================================================ RANGE OF LIKELY OUTCOMES ============================================================ Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations. Projected score: San Diego State 15.2 -- Toledo 16.6 Percentile 10th 25th 50th 75th 90th ------------- ----- ----- ---- ----- ----- Toledo margin -20.5 -10.3 +1.3 +13.1 +23.6 Total points 10.5 20.2 31.7 43.2 53.1 ============================================================ PLAYER PROPS: WHAT TO EXPECT ============================================================ Individual player projections, with each stat's real 68% likely range or touchdown probability: TOLEDO Player Pos Stat Proj. 68% range / TD odds -------------------- --- --------------- ----- ------------------- John Alan Richter QB Passing yards 137.7 53-232 Pass attempts 22.0 13-33 Completions 12.7 6-19 Passing TDs 0.92 60% 1+, 24% 2+ Rushing yards 5.7 -- Rushing TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Connor Walendzak RB Rushing yards 34.2 -- Carries 7.3 2-10 Rushing TDs 0.08 7% 1+ Receiving yards 16.9 -- Receptions 2.7 2-4 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Terrell Crosby Jr. WR Receiving yards 23.9 -- Receptions 2.4 0-3 Receiving TDs 0.10 10% 1+ Jacob Newell TE Receiving yards 9.3 -- Receptions 2.1 0-3 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Isaac Zay LB Tackles 5.5 2-13 Sacks 0.33 28% 1+ Armorion Smith S Tackles 4.2 2-7 Lucas Lambert-Pipkin DT Sacks 0.33 28% 1+ SAN DIEGO STATE Player Pos Stat Proj. 68% range / TD odds -------------------- --- --------------- ----- ------------------- Jayden Denegal QB Passing yards 125.7 41-186 Pass attempts 21.4 12-27 Completions 12.3 6-15 Passing TDs 0.58 44% 1+, 12% 2+ Rushing yards 11.0 -- Rushing TDs 0.29 25% 1+ Lucky Sutton RB Rushing yards 64.9 24-97 Carries 15.9 10-21 Rushing TDs 0.50 39% 1+, 9% 2+ Receiving yards 7.8 -- Receptions 1.4 2-2 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Jordan Napier WR Rushing yards 13.1 -- Rushing TDs 0.14 14% 1+ Receiving yards 51.5 16-109 Receptions 4.4 2-7 Receiving TDs 0.18 17% 1+ Christian Washington RB Rushing yards 44.3 3-74 Carries 9.0 4-13 Rushing TDs 0.20 18% 1+ Receiving yards 14.7 -- Receptions 2.6 2-4 Receiving TDs 0.20 18% 1+ Donovan Brown WR Rushing yards 6.8 -- Rushing TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Receiving yards 41.5 6-68 Receptions 2.9 1-4 Receiving TDs 0.09 9% 1+ Jacob Bostick WR Receiving yards 34.0 -- Receptions 3.3 1-5 Receiving TDs 0.48 38% 1+, 9% 2+ Jackson Ford TE Receiving yards 12.5 -- Receptions 1.7 -- Receiving TDs 0.07 7% 1+ Jalen Thomeson S Tackles 6.8 4-9 Dalesean Staley S Tackles 6.3 4-9 Djibril Abdou Rahman DL Sacks 0.33 28% 1+ Kai Wallin DL Sacks 0.17 15% 1+ ============================================================ GAME CONTEXT ============================================================ Toledo recent form: 3-2 over last 5 games San Diego State recent form: 2-3 over last 5 games ------------------------------------------------------------ Generated by spreadsim.com's model. See spreadsim.com/methodology for how these numbers are computed. spreadsim.com/games/10279