TCU at UCF NCAA, Week 4, 2026 regular season Kickoff: September 26, 2026 at 4:00 AM UTC Status: scheduled ============================================================ WHAT TO EXPECT ============================================================ spreadsim's model favors TCU by 3.2 points, giving them a 57% chance to win outright. It projects a total of 44.2 combined points, with UCF at 20.5 and TCU at 23.7. Simulating the game 10,000 times, UCF's margin lands between -25.2 and +18.9 points 80% of the time -- a real range, not a single guessed score. ============================================================ THE PREDICTION IN DETAIL ============================================================ Spread: UCF +3.2 / TCU -3.2 Moneyline: UCF +134 / TCU -134 Win probability: UCF 42.7% / TCU 57.3% Projected total: 44.2 points Last recalculated: September 8, 2026 at 6:01 AM UTC This comes from each team's Elo rating -- UCF: 1419.3, TCU: 1562.6 -- plus a +65.0-point home-field edge, adjusted by these real per-team factors (16.2 Elo points per spread point): Adjustment factor UCF TCU ----------------- ----- ----- elevation +0.0 +0.0 injury_hazard +0.0 +0.0 roster_talent +0.1 +34.6 travel_fatigue +0.0 +1.0 coaching_change +11.8 +9.5 ncaa_efficiency +20.0 -20.0 blowout_hangover +0.0 +0.0 home_field_vector +20.0 -- consecutive_road -- +0.0 ============================================================ HOW THIS COMPARES TO THE MARKET ============================================================ No market line available for this game yet. ============================================================ RANGE OF LIKELY OUTCOMES ============================================================ Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations. Projected score: TCU 23.7 -- UCF 20.5 Percentile 10th 25th 50th 75th 90th ------------ ----- ----- ---- ---- ----- UCF margin -25.2 -14.9 -3.2 +8.2 +18.9 Total points 22.6 33.1 44.2 55.5 65.7 ============================================================ PLAYER PROPS: WHAT TO EXPECT ============================================================ Individual player projections, with each stat's real 68% likely range or touchdown probability: UCF Player Pos Stat Proj. 68% range / TD odds ------------------ --- --------------- ----- ------------------- Alonza Barnett III QB Passing yards 260.4 176-354 Pass attempts 27.8 19-39 Completions 16.2 10-22 Passing TDs 2.31 90% 1+, 67% 2+ Rushing yards 56.3 16-116 Rushing TDs 1.44 76% 1+, 42% 2+ Duane Thomas Jr. WR Rushing yards 11.4 -- Rushing TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Receiving yards 48.1 12-78 Receptions 4.4 2-6 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Jonathan Bibbs WR Rushing yards 14.8 -- Rushing TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Receiving yards 47.7 12-83 Receptions 2.9 1-5 Receiving TDs 0.28 24% 1+ Dylan Wade TE Receiving yards 45.3 22-96 Receptions 3.7 2-6 Receiving TDs 0.56 43% 1+, 11% 2+ Waden Charles WR Receiving yards 40.9 5-71 Receptions 3.1 1-5 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Duke Watson RB Rushing yards 35.1 -- Carries 9.8 4-15 Rushing TDs 0.11 11% 1+ Receiving yards 7.6 -- Receptions 2.1 1-3 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Agyeman Addae RB Rushing yards 34.3 -- Carries 6.6 1-8 Rushing TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Dylan Burk TE Receiving yards 22.6 -- Receptions 2.3 1-3 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Lewis Carter LB Tackles 8.1 5-12 Cole Kozlowski LB Tackles 7.4 4-11 Horace Lockett DT Sacks 0.33 28% 1+ Jahleel Culbreath LB Sacks 0.25 22% 1+ TCU Player Pos Stat Proj. 68% range / TD odds -------------- --- --------------- ----- ------------------- Jeremy Payne RB Rushing yards 62.4 22-123 Carries 11.9 6-21 Rushing TDs 0.57 44% 1+, 11% 2+ Receiving yards 23.0 4-39 Receptions 2.9 2-5 Receiving TDs 0.29 25% 1+ Jordan Dwyer WR Receiving yards 40.5 5-73 Receptions 4.1 2-7 Receiving TDs 0.51 40% 1+, 9% 2+ Jeremy Scott WR Receiving yards 36.6 1-72 Receptions 3.1 1-5 Receiving TDs 0.41 34% 1+, 6% 2+ Ed Small WR Receiving yards 35.1 -- Receptions 3.8 2-8 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Jon Denman RB Rushing yards 33.2 -- Carries 8.7 3-12 Rushing TDs 0.43 35% 1+, 7% 2+ Jamel Johnson S Tackles 6.5 4-8 Michael Short LB Tackles 5.3 2-10 Ansel Din-Mbuh DT Sacks 0.31 27% 1+ Kylin Jackson S Sacks 0.19 17% 1+ ============================================================ GAME CONTEXT ============================================================ UCF recent form: 1-4 over last 5 games TCU recent form: 3-2 over last 5 games Head-to-head history: Season Away Home Winner ------ ------ ------ ------ 2024 UCF 35 TCU 34 UCF ------------------------------------------------------------ Generated by spreadsim.com's model. See spreadsim.com/methodology for how these numbers are computed. spreadsim.com/games/10280