South Florida at Bowling Green NCAA, Week 4, 2026 regular season Kickoff: September 26, 2026 at 4:00 AM UTC Status: scheduled ============================================================ WHAT TO EXPECT ============================================================ spreadsim's model favors South Florida by 17.2 points, giving them a 83% chance to win outright. It projects a total of 51.3 combined points, with Bowling Green at 17.3 and South Florida at 34.4. Simulating the game 10,000 times, Bowling Green's margin lands between -39.8 and +5.7 points 80% of the time -- a real range, not a single guessed score. ============================================================ THE PREDICTION IN DETAIL ============================================================ Spread: Bowling Green +17.2 / South Florida -17.2 Moneyline: Bowling Green +502 / South Florida -502 Win probability: Bowling Green 16.6% / South Florida 83.4% Projected total: 51.3 points Last recalculated: September 8, 2026 at 6:02 AM UTC This comes from each team's Elo rating -- Bowling Green: 1348.9, South Florida: 1587.3 -- plus a +65.0-point home-field edge, adjusted by these real per-team factors (16.2 Elo points per spread point): Adjustment factor Bowling Green South Florida ----------------- ------------- ------------- elevation +0.0 +0.0 injury_hazard +0.0 +0.0 roster_talent -76.3 +18.7 travel_fatigue +0.0 +1.2 coaching_change -33.5 -26.8 ncaa_efficiency -20.0 -20.0 blowout_hangover +0.0 +0.0 home_field_vector -3.9 -- consecutive_road -- +0.0 ============================================================ HOW THIS COMPARES TO THE MARKET ============================================================ No market line available for this game yet. ============================================================ RANGE OF LIKELY OUTCOMES ============================================================ Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations. Projected score: South Florida 34.4 -- Bowling Green 17.3 Percentile 10th 25th 50th 75th 90th -------------------- ----- ----- ----- ---- ---- Bowling Green margin -39.8 -29.2 -17.1 -5.2 +5.7 Total points 30.2 40.2 51.5 62.6 73.1 ============================================================ PLAYER PROPS: WHAT TO EXPECT ============================================================ Individual player projections, with each stat's real 68% likely range or touchdown probability: BOWLING GREEN Player Pos Stat Proj. 68% range / TD odds ---------------- --- --------------- ----- ------------------- Hunter Najm QB Passing yards 140.1 56-199 Pass attempts 20.3 12-29 Completions 10.4 4-14 Passing TDs 0.92 60% 1+, 24% 2+ Rushing yards 14.3 -- Rushing TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Austyn Dendy RB Rushing yards 56.8 16-75 Carries 15.9 10-20 Rushing TDs 0.83 56% 1+, 20% 2+ Receiving yards 16.4 -- Receptions 2.3 1-3 Receiving TDs 0.28 24% 1+ Brennan Ridley WR Receiving yards 43.6 8-96 Receptions 1.3 2-2 Receiving TDs 0.20 18% 1+ Winn Sharp WR Receiving yards 17.4 -- Receptions 1.8 -- Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Kal-El Pascal S Tackles 6.2 4-9 Preston EstoEsta S Tackles 4.3 2-5 Eriq George DE Sacks 0.50 39% 1+, 9% 2+ Myles Bradley DE Sacks 0.50 39% 1+, 9% 2+ SOUTH FLORIDA Player Pos Stat Proj. 68% range / TD odds --------------------- --- --------------- ----- ------------------- Michael Van Buren Jr. QB Passing yards 173.8 89-270 Pass attempts 25.7 17-39 Completions 15.7 10-24 Passing TDs 0.95 62% 1+, 25% 2+ Rushing yards 20.1 -- Rushing TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Mudia Reuben WR Receiving yards 60.0 24-125 Receptions 3.6 2-5 Receiving TDs 0.61 46% 1+, 13% 2+ Kenny Odom WR Rushing yards 18.1 -- Rushing TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Receiving yards 51.5 16-89 Receptions 4.8 2-8 Receiving TDs 0.49 39% 1+, 9% 2+ Arhmad Branch WR Receiving yards 44.0 8-85 Receptions 2.8 1-4 Receiving TDs 0.14 13% 1+ Alvon Isaac RB Rushing yards 39.6 -- Carries 8.3 2-12 Rushing TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Receiving yards 20.9 2-41 Receptions 2.3 1-4 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Wyatt Sullivan TE Receiving yards 27.4 4-42 Receptions 1.7 0-2 Receiving TDs 0.36 30% 1+, 5% 2+ Ayden Jackson DB Tackles 5.8 4-8 Tavin Ward S Tackles 5.8 4-10 Shamar Meikle LB Sacks 0.29 25% 1+ MarShon Oxley LB Sacks 0.25 22% 1+ ============================================================ GAME CONTEXT ============================================================ Bowling Green recent form: 1-4 over last 5 games South Florida recent form: 3-2 over last 5 games ------------------------------------------------------------ Generated by spreadsim.com's model. See spreadsim.com/methodology for how these numbers are computed. spreadsim.com/games/10281