UNLV at Akron NCAA, Week 4, 2026 regular season Kickoff: September 26, 2026 at 4:00 AM UTC Status: scheduled ============================================================ WHAT TO EXPECT ============================================================ spreadsim's model favors UNLV by 15.5 points, giving them a 81% chance to win outright. It projects a total of 45.8 combined points, with Akron at 15.1 and UNLV at 30.7. Simulating the game 10,000 times, Akron's margin lands between -38.2 and +7.0 points 80% of the time -- a real range, not a single guessed score. ============================================================ THE PREDICTION IN DETAIL ============================================================ Spread: Akron +15.5 / UNLV -15.5 Moneyline: Akron +426 / UNLV -426 Win probability: Akron 19.0% / UNLV 81.0% Projected total: 45.8 points Last recalculated: September 8, 2026 at 6:02 AM UTC This comes from each team's Elo rating -- Akron: 1341.7, UNLV: 1578.5 -- plus a +65.0-point home-field edge, adjusted by these real per-team factors (16.2 Elo points per spread point): Adjustment factor Akron UNLV ----------------- ----- ----- elevation +0.0 +0.0 injury_hazard +0.0 +0.0 roster_talent -73.7 +10.6 travel_fatigue +3.0 -5.0 coaching_change +9.5 +7.1 ncaa_efficiency -20.0 -17.0 blowout_hangover -20.0 +0.0 home_field_vector +17.0 -- consecutive_road -- +0.0 ============================================================ HOW THIS COMPARES TO THE MARKET ============================================================ No market line available for this game yet. ============================================================ RANGE OF LIKELY OUTCOMES ============================================================ Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations. Projected score: UNLV 30.7 -- Akron 15.1 Percentile 10th 25th 50th 75th 90th ------------ ----- ----- ----- ---- ---- Akron margin -38.2 -27.3 -15.6 -4.0 +7.0 Total points 24.2 34.8 45.9 57.0 67.4 ============================================================ PLAYER PROPS: WHAT TO EXPECT ============================================================ Individual player projections, with each stat's real 68% likely range or touchdown probability: AKRON Player Pos Stat Proj. 68% range / TD odds ----------------- --- --------------- ----- ------------------- Brayden Roggow QB Passing yards 76.6 -- Pass attempts 17.2 8-24 Completions 10.8 4-15 Passing TDs 0.62 46% 1+, 13% 2+ Jordan Gant RB Rushing yards 76.2 35-137 Carries 14.9 10-23 Rushing TDs 0.35 30% 1+ Receiving yards 18.3 -- Receptions 2.5 1-3 Receiving TDs 0.19 17% 1+ Marcel Williams WR Receiving yards 59.6 24-118 Receptions 4.6 2-9 Receiving TDs 0.13 12% 1+ Kyan Mason WR Receiving yards 42.9 7-80 Receptions 3.4 2-5 Receiving TDs 0.26 23% 1+ Sean Patrick RB Rushing yards 41.0 0-70 Carries 9.2 4-15 Rushing TDs 0.12 11% 1+ Receiving yards 22.7 3-40 Receptions 2.5 1-4 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Jean Louis III WR Receiving yards 35.6 -- Receptions 3.0 1-5 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Conner Cravaack TE Receiving yards 18.5 -- Receptions 2.5 1-4 Receiving TDs 0.25 22% 1+ Mehki Flowers DB Tackles 5.1 3-8 Jamari Somerville S Tackles 4.9 2-10 Sacks 0.33 28% 1+ Cyrus Durham DL Sacks 0.44 36% 1+, 7% 2+ UNLV Player Pos Stat Proj. 68% range / TD odds ------------------------- --- --------------- ----- ------------------- Jackson Arnold QB Passing yards 184.2 100-285 Pass attempts 26.6 18-39 Completions 16.2 10-25 Passing TDs 0.59 45% 1+, 12% 2+ Rushing yards 30.0 -- Rushing TDs 0.89 59% 1+, 22% 2+ Jai'Den Thomas RB Rushing yards 76.4 36-130 Carries 11.7 6-16 Rushing TDs 0.65 48% 1+, 14% 2+ Receiving yards 26.9 8-57 Receptions 3.1 2-7 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Jaylon Glover RB Rushing yards 52.9 12-92 Carries 7.9 2-11 Rushing TDs 0.11 10% 1+ Receiving yards 17.6 -- Receptions 2.3 1-3 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Taeshaun Lyons WR Receiving yards 40.2 5-66 Receptions 2.3 0-3 Receiving TDs 0.27 24% 1+ Taz Reddicks WR Receiving yards 39.3 4-55 Receptions 2.5 0-3 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Amorion Walker WR Receiving yards 38.5 3-63 Receptions 2.2 -- Receiving TDs 0.15 14% 1+ Keyan Burnett TE Receiving yards 27.3 4-54 Receptions 2.4 1-4 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Matt Byrnes TE Receiving yards 23.9 0-38 Receptions 2.1 0-3 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Jake Pope S Tackles 6.0 4-10 Blesyng Alualu-Tuiolemotu LB Tackles 5.1 2-8 Kenji Scanlan DE Sacks 0.50 39% 1+, 9% 2+ Elias Rudolph LB Sacks 0.31 27% 1+ ============================================================ GAME CONTEXT ============================================================ Akron recent form: 3-2 over last 5 games UNLV recent form: 2-3 over last 5 games ------------------------------------------------------------ Generated by spreadsim.com's model. See spreadsim.com/methodology for how these numbers are computed. spreadsim.com/games/10282