Air Force at Nevada NCAA, Week 4, 2026 regular season Kickoff: September 26, 2026 at 4:00 AM UTC Status: scheduled ============================================================ WHAT TO EXPECT ============================================================ spreadsim's model favors Nevada by 6.9 points, giving them a 66% chance to win outright. It projects a total of 49.6 combined points, with Nevada at 28.2 and Air Force at 21.2. Simulating the game 10,000 times, Nevada's margin lands between -15.4 and +29.3 points 80% of the time -- a real range, not a single guessed score. ============================================================ THE PREDICTION IN DETAIL ============================================================ Spread: Nevada -6.9 / Air Force +6.9 Moneyline: Nevada -191 / Air Force +191 Win probability: Nevada 65.7% / Air Force 34.3% Projected total: 49.6 points Last recalculated: September 8, 2026 at 6:02 AM UTC This comes from each team's Elo rating -- Nevada: 1438.5, Air Force: 1429.8 -- plus a +65.0-point home-field edge, adjusted by these real per-team factors (16.2 Elo points per spread point): Adjustment factor Nevada Air Force ----------------- ------ --------- elevation +0.0 +0.0 injury_hazard +0.0 +0.0 roster_talent -71.8 -100.0 travel_fatigue +4.0 +0.0 coaching_change +9.5 +11.8 ncaa_efficiency +20.0 +20.0 blowout_hangover +0.0 +0.0 home_field_vector +9.3 -- consecutive_road -- +0.0 ============================================================ HOW THIS COMPARES TO THE MARKET ============================================================ No market line available for this game yet. ============================================================ RANGE OF LIKELY OUTCOMES ============================================================ Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations. Projected score: Air Force 21.2 -- Nevada 28.2 Percentile 10th 25th 50th 75th 90th ------------- ----- ---- ---- ----- ----- Nevada margin -15.4 -4.7 +6.9 +18.9 +29.3 Total points 27.3 37.7 49.5 61.1 71.4 ============================================================ PLAYER PROPS: WHAT TO EXPECT ============================================================ Individual player projections, with each stat's real 68% likely range or touchdown probability: NEVADA Player Pos Stat Proj. 68% range / TD odds -------------------- --- --------------- ----- ------------------- Carter Jones QB Passing yards 205.7 121-306 Pass attempts 24.2 16-34 Completions 15.3 9-22 Passing TDs 0.74 52% 1+, 17% 2+ Rushing yards 19.5 -- Rushing TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Dominic Kelley RB Rushing yards 61.3 20-136 Carries 7.1 2-11 Rushing TDs 0.66 48% 1+, 14% 2+ Herschel Turner RB Rushing yards 59.4 18-103 Carries 8.5 3-13 Rushing TDs 0.22 20% 1+ Receiving yards 21.3 2-36 Receptions 1.4 2-2 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Gary Givens III WR Receiving yards 42.0 6-75 Receptions 2.1 -- Receiving TDs 0.14 13% 1+ Marshaun Brown WR Receiving yards 38.6 3-74 Receptions 3.0 1-6 Receiving TDs 0.16 15% 1+ Daijon Calimon WR Receiving yards 30.7 -- Receptions 2.0 -- Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ EJ Smith LB Tackles 5.6 2-10 Jeremy Naborne-Owens LB Tackles 4.4 2-7 Sacks 0.38 31% 1+, 6% 2+ Poasa Utu LB Sacks 0.25 22% 1+ AIR FORCE Player Pos Stat Proj. 68% range / TD odds --------------- --- --------------- ----- ------------------- Liam Szarka QB Passing yards 158.8 74-256 Pass attempts 17.1 8-23 Completions 11.0 5-16 Passing TDs 0.91 60% 1+, 23% 2+ Rushing yards 75.4 35-118 Rushing TDs 1.01 63% 1+, 27% 2+ Owen Allen RB Rushing yards 52.4 12-106 Carries 12.1 6-21 Rushing TDs 0.64 48% 1+, 14% 2+ Jonah Dawson WR Receiving yards 40.7 5-66 Receptions 2.6 0-4 Receiving TDs 0.13 12% 1+ Rocco Conti RB Rushing yards 13.8 -- Carries 3.0 3-3 Rushing TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Blake Fletcher LB Tackles 7.9 5-10 Roger Jones Jr. DB Tackles 6.4 4-10 Isaac Hubert LB Sacks 0.25 22% 1+ Jaylin Reese LB Sacks 0.17 15% 1+ ============================================================ GAME CONTEXT ============================================================ Nevada recent form: 3-2 over last 5 games Air Force recent form: 2-3 over last 5 games Head-to-head history: Season Away Home Winner ------ ----- ------ ------ 2024 AF 22 NEV 19 AF ------------------------------------------------------------ Generated by spreadsim.com's model. See spreadsim.com/methodology for how these numbers are computed. spreadsim.com/games/10283