James Madison at Old Dominion NCAA, Week 4, 2026 regular season Kickoff: September 26, 2026 at 4:00 AM UTC Status: scheduled ============================================================ WHAT TO EXPECT ============================================================ spreadsim's model favors Old Dominion by 0.6 points, giving them a 51% chance to win outright. It projects a total of 54.1 combined points, with Old Dominion at 27.3 and James Madison at 26.8. Simulating the game 10,000 times, Old Dominion's margin lands between -21.5 and +22.8 points 80% of the time -- a real range, not a single guessed score. ============================================================ THE PREDICTION IN DETAIL ============================================================ Spread: Old Dominion -0.6 / James Madison +0.6 Moneyline: Old Dominion -106 / James Madison +106 Win probability: Old Dominion 51.4% / James Madison 48.6% Projected total: 54.1 points Last recalculated: September 8, 2026 at 6:02 AM UTC This comes from each team's Elo rating -- Old Dominion: 1637.0, James Madison: 1700.2 -- plus a +65.0-point home-field edge, adjusted by these real per-team factors (16.2 Elo points per spread point): Adjustment factor Old Dominion James Madison ----------------- ------------ ------------- elevation +0.0 +0.0 injury_hazard +0.0 +0.0 roster_talent -94.0 -49.3 travel_fatigue +0.0 +3.5 coaching_change +11.8 -26.8 ncaa_efficiency +20.0 +11.7 blowout_hangover +0.0 +0.0 home_field_vector +9.2 -- consecutive_road -- +0.0 ============================================================ HOW THIS COMPARES TO THE MARKET ============================================================ No market line available for this game yet. ============================================================ RANGE OF LIKELY OUTCOMES ============================================================ Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations. Projected score: James Madison 26.8 -- Old Dominion 27.3 Percentile 10th 25th 50th 75th 90th ------------------- ----- ----- ---- ----- ----- Old Dominion margin -21.5 -11.4 +0.5 +12.1 +22.8 Total points 32.5 42.8 53.9 65.5 75.7 ============================================================ PLAYER PROPS: WHAT TO EXPECT ============================================================ Individual player projections, with each stat's real 68% likely range or touchdown probability: OLD DOMINION Player Pos Stat Proj. 68% range / TD odds ----------------- --- --------------- ----- ------------------- Quinn Henicle QB Passing yards 99.8 15-158 Pass attempts 20.4 12-33 Completions 10.3 4-16 Passing TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Rushing yards 28.8 -- Rushing TDs 0.32 27% 1+ Devin Roche RB Rushing yards 50.0 9-94 Carries 11.6 6-18 Rushing TDs 0.24 21% 1+ Receiving yards 11.5 -- Receptions 2.1 1-3 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ TJ Johnson WR Receiving yards 34.3 -- Receptions 2.0 -- Receiving TDs 0.35 30% 1+ Sidney Mbanasor WR Receiving yards 33.2 -- Receptions 2.3 -- Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Maurki James RB Rushing yards 31.8 -- Carries 8.5 3-12 Rushing TDs 0.16 15% 1+ Receiving yards 14.0 -- Receptions 2.1 1-3 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Leon Haughton Jr. TE Receiving yards 10.8 -- Receptions 1.3 2-2 Receiving TDs 0.24 21% 1+ Mario Easterly S Tackles 5.8 4-8 Zion Frink CB Tackles 5.3 4-9 Hunter Malecki DL Sacks 0.62 46% 1+, 13% 2+ Javen Gibson DL Sacks 0.44 36% 1+, 7% 2+ JAMES MADISON Player Pos Stat Proj. 68% range / TD odds ----------------- --- --------------- ----- ------------------- Arrington Maiden QB Passing yards 46.8 -- Pass attempts 8.3 -- Completions 5.3 -- Passing TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Rushing yards 13.3 -- Rushing TDs 0.15 14% 1+ Braeden Wisloski WR Receiving yards 37.9 2-61 Receptions 2.7 0-5 Receiving TDs 0.54 42% 1+, 10% 2+ Michael Scott WR Receiving yards 28.6 -- Receptions 2.0 -- Receiving TDs 0.36 30% 1+, 5% 2+ George Pettaway RB Rushing yards 23.7 -- Carries 7.9 2-13 Rushing TDs 0.06 6% 1+ Receiving yards 15.5 -- Receptions 2.4 1-3 Receiving TDs 0.10 10% 1+ Za'Ron Collins WR Receiving yards 16.1 -- Receptions 1.6 -- Receiving TDs 0.15 14% 1+ Nakian Jackson LB Tackles 6.2 4-11 Gannon Weathersby LB Tackles 4.8 2-9 Jayden Studio LB Sacks 0.30 26% 1+ DJ Kelly CB Sacks 0.17 15% 1+ ============================================================ GAME CONTEXT ============================================================ Old Dominion recent form: 5-0 over last 5 games James Madison recent form: 4-1 over last 5 games Head-to-head history: Season Away Home Winner ------ ------ ------ ------ 2025 ODU 27 JMU 63 JMU 2024 JMU 35 ODU 32 JMU 2023 ODU 27 JMU 30 JMU ------------------------------------------------------------ Generated by spreadsim.com's model. See spreadsim.com/methodology for how these numbers are computed. spreadsim.com/games/10284