Ball State at Kent State NCAA, Week 4, 2026 regular season Kickoff: September 26, 2026 at 4:00 AM UTC Status: scheduled ============================================================ WHAT TO EXPECT ============================================================ spreadsim's model favors Kent State by 1.7 points, giving them a 54% chance to win outright. It projects a total of 45.0 combined points, with Kent State at 23.2 and Ball State at 21.7. Simulating the game 10,000 times, Kent State's margin lands between -20.8 and +23.9 points 80% of the time -- a real range, not a single guessed score. ============================================================ THE PREDICTION IN DETAIL ============================================================ Spread: Kent State -1.7 / Ball State +1.7 Moneyline: Kent State -117 / Ball State +117 Win probability: Kent State 54.0% / Ball State 46.0% Projected total: 45.0 points Last recalculated: September 8, 2026 at 6:02 AM UTC This comes from each team's Elo rating -- Kent State: 1311.9, Ball State: 1307.7 -- plus a +65.0-point home-field edge, adjusted by these real per-team factors (16.2 Elo points per spread point): Adjustment factor Kent State Ball State ----------------- ---------- ---------- elevation +0.0 +0.0 injury_hazard +0.0 +0.0 roster_talent -87.8 -63.7 travel_fatigue +2.5 +3.6 coaching_change -26.8 +9.5 ncaa_efficiency -20.0 -20.0 blowout_hangover -20.0 -20.0 home_field_vector +20.0 -- consecutive_road -- +0.0 ============================================================ HOW THIS COMPARES TO THE MARKET ============================================================ No market line available for this game yet. ============================================================ RANGE OF LIKELY OUTCOMES ============================================================ Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations. Projected score: Ball State 21.7 -- Kent State 23.2 Percentile 10th 25th 50th 75th 90th ----------------- ----- ----- ---- ----- ----- Kent State margin -20.8 -10.4 +1.4 +13.4 +23.9 Total points 23.4 33.5 45.0 56.4 66.3 ============================================================ PLAYER PROPS: WHAT TO EXPECT ============================================================ Individual player projections, with each stat's real 68% likely range or touchdown probability: KENT STATE Player Pos Stat Proj. 68% range / TD odds ------------------- --- --------------- ----- ------------------- Dru DeShields QB Passing yards 215.5 131-301 Pass attempts 24.2 16-28 Completions 13.9 8-16 Passing TDs 2.02 87% 1+, 60% 2+ Rushing yards 7.1 -- Rushing TDs 0.15 14% 1+ Wayne Harris WR Receiving yards 47.7 12-81 Receptions 3.5 2-4 Receiving TDs 0.22 20% 1+ Da'Realyst Clark WR Rushing yards 5.4 -- Rushing TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Receiving yards 46.1 10-102 Receptions 1.8 -- Receiving TDs 0.43 35% 1+, 7% 2+ Ardell Banks WR Receiving yards 34.7 -- Receptions 1.8 -- Receiving TDs 0.43 35% 1+, 7% 2+ Marques Hicks RB Rushing yards 33.2 -- Carries 3.9 -- Rushing TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Ayden Harris RB Rushing yards 22.8 -- Carries 4.1 -- Rushing TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Terik Mulder TE Receiving yards 19.8 -- Receptions 2.5 1-4 Receiving TDs 0.54 42% 1+, 10% 2+ Joel Cordoba DB Tackles 5.8 4-10 Derrick Jackson III DB Tackles 4.5 2-7 Rocco Nicholl LB Sacks 0.33 28% 1+ Darian Blachewicz DL Sacks 0.19 17% 1+ BALL STATE Player Pos Stat Proj. 68% range / TD odds ----------------- --- --------------- ----- ------------------- Jalen Bonds RB Rushing yards 42.0 1-69 Carries 10.2 4-17 Rushing TDs 0.28 25% 1+ Receiving yards 21.8 2-56 Receptions 1.5 2-2 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Donovan Hamilton WR Receiving yards 37.9 2-64 Receptions 3.2 1-6 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Jabari Smith Jr. WR Receiving yards 26.2 -- Receptions 2.5 0-4 Receiving TDs 0.58 44% 1+, 12% 2+ TJ Horton RB Rushing yards 24.7 -- Carries 8.1 2-11 Rushing TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Receiving yards 12.7 -- Receptions 2.6 2-4 Receiving TDs 0.14 13% 1+ Jamarion McDougle WR Receiving yards 24.0 -- Receptions 2.0 -- Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Derek Fields DB Tackles 4.3 2-6 Willizhuan Yates DB Tackles 4.1 2-6 Jared Badie LB Sacks 0.14 13% 1+ Ameir Glenn DT Sacks 0.12 12% 1+ ============================================================ GAME CONTEXT ============================================================ Kent State recent form: 2-3 over last 5 games Ball State recent form: 1-4 over last 5 games Head-to-head history: Season Away Home Winner ------ ------- ------- ------ 2025 KENT 13 BALL 17 BALL 2024 BALL 37 KENT 35 BALL 2023 KENT 3 BALL 34 BALL ------------------------------------------------------------ Generated by spreadsim.com's model. See spreadsim.com/methodology for how these numbers are computed. spreadsim.com/games/10285