App State at NC State NCAA, Week 4, 2026 regular season Kickoff: September 26, 2026 at 4:00 AM UTC Status: scheduled ============================================================ WHAT TO EXPECT ============================================================ spreadsim's model favors NC State by 15.1 points, giving them a 80% chance to win outright. It projects a total of 58.1 combined points, with NC State at 36.5 and App State at 21.4. Simulating the game 10,000 times, NC State's margin lands between -6.8 and +37.1 points 80% of the time -- a real range, not a single guessed score. ============================================================ THE PREDICTION IN DETAIL ============================================================ Spread: NC State -15.1 / App State +15.1 Moneyline: NC State -410 / App State +410 Win probability: NC State 80.4% / App State 19.6% Projected total: 58.1 points Last recalculated: September 8, 2026 at 6:02 AM UTC This comes from each team's Elo rating -- NC State: 1522.3, App State: 1388.6 -- plus a +65.0-point home-field edge, adjusted by these real per-team factors (16.2 Elo points per spread point): Adjustment factor NC State App State ----------------- -------- --------- elevation +0.0 +0.0 injury_hazard +0.0 +0.0 roster_talent +50.1 -37.1 travel_fatigue +3.5 +0.0 coaching_change +9.5 +11.8 ncaa_efficiency -20.0 +20.0 blowout_hangover -20.0 +0.0 home_field_vector +17.9 -- consecutive_road -- +0.0 ============================================================ HOW THIS COMPARES TO THE MARKET ============================================================ No market line available for this game yet. ============================================================ RANGE OF LIKELY OUTCOMES ============================================================ Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations. Projected score: App State 21.4 -- NC State 36.5 Percentile 10th 25th 50th 75th 90th --------------- ---- ---- ----- ----- ----- NC State margin -6.8 +3.4 +15.2 +26.9 +37.1 Total points 36.7 46.6 57.9 69.1 79.5 ============================================================ PLAYER PROPS: WHAT TO EXPECT ============================================================ Individual player projections, with each stat's real 68% likely range or touchdown probability: NC STATE Player Pos Stat Proj. 68% range / TD odds ---------------- --- --------------- ----- ------------------- CJ Bailey QB Passing yards 224.3 140-317 Pass attempts 29.4 20-35 Completions 18.4 12-23 Passing TDs 1.56 79% 1+, 46% 2+ Rushing yards 26.9 -- Rushing TDs 0.39 32% 1+, 6% 2+ Victor Snow WR Rushing yards 19.1 -- Rushing TDs 0.24 22% 1+ Receiving yards 69.2 34-129 Receptions 4.5 2-8 Receiving TDs 0.61 45% 1+, 12% 2+ Jayden Scott RB Rushing yards 52.1 11-118 Carries 10.5 5-19 Rushing TDs 0.12 11% 1+ Receiving yards 17.3 -- Receptions 2.3 1-3 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Davion Dozier WR Receiving yards 48.7 13-78 Receptions 2.6 0-4 Receiving TDs 0.48 38% 1+, 9% 2+ Teddy Hoffmann WR Receiving yards 40.9 5-73 Receptions 2.3 0-4 Receiving TDs 0.36 30% 1+, 5% 2+ Davion Gause RB Rushing yards 38.6 -- Carries 8.9 4-14 Rushing TDs 0.36 30% 1+, 5% 2+ Receiving yards 18.5 -- Receptions 2.4 1-3 Receiving TDs 0.24 21% 1+ Asaad Brown Jr. CB Tackles 5.9 4-10 King Mack S Tackles 5.2 3-8 Harvey Dyson III LB Sacks 0.50 39% 1+, 9% 2+ Joseph Adedire DE Sacks 0.25 22% 1+ APP STATE Player Pos Stat Proj. 68% range / TD odds ----------------- --- --------------- ----- ------------------- Malachi Singleton QB Passing yards 119.8 35-209 Pass attempts 16.0 7-27 Completions 9.1 3-15 Passing TDs 0.65 48% 1+, 14% 2+ Rushing yards 25.9 -- Rushing TDs 0.13 12% 1+ Jaquari Lewis RB Rushing yards 52.5 12-105 Carries 12.1 6-23 Rushing TDs 0.58 44% 1+, 12% 2+ Receiving yards 18.6 -- Receptions 3.1 2-5 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Sam Mbake WR Receiving yards 37.0 1-60 Receptions 3.6 2-7 Receiving TDs 0.14 13% 1+ JMarion Burnette RB Rushing yards 32.7 -- Carries 9.6 4-14 Rushing TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Alexander Sanchez WR Receiving yards 22.8 -- Receptions 1.9 -- Receiving TDs 0.17 16% 1+ Colton Phares LB Tackles 7.9 5-11 Cary Grant DB Tackles 4.2 2-7 Aiden Benton DL Sacks 0.38 31% 1+, 6% 2+ Caleb Sandstrom DL Sacks 0.25 22% 1+ ============================================================ GAME CONTEXT ============================================================ NC State recent form: 3-2 over last 5 games App State recent form: 1-4 over last 5 games ------------------------------------------------------------ Generated by spreadsim.com's model. See spreadsim.com/methodology for how these numbers are computed. spreadsim.com/games/10286