Kennesaw State at Arkansas State NCAA, Week 4, 2026 regular season Kickoff: September 26, 2026 at 11:00 PM UTC Status: scheduled ============================================================ WHAT TO EXPECT ============================================================ spreadsim's model favors Arkansas State by 2.1 points, giving them a 55% chance to win outright. It projects a total of 59.6 combined points, with Arkansas State at 30.7 and Kennesaw State at 28.8. Simulating the game 10,000 times, Arkansas State's margin lands between -20.7 and +24.6 points 80% of the time -- a real range, not a single guessed score. ============================================================ THE PREDICTION IN DETAIL ============================================================ Spread: Arkansas State -2.1 / Kennesaw State +2.1 Moneyline: Arkansas State -122 / Kennesaw State +122 Win probability: Arkansas State 54.9% / Kennesaw State 45.1% Projected total: 59.6 points Last recalculated: September 8, 2026 at 6:02 AM UTC This comes from each team's Elo rating -- Arkansas State: 1445.4, Kennesaw State: 1515.8 -- plus a +65.0-point home-field edge, adjusted by these real per-team factors (16.2 Elo points per spread point): Adjustment factor Arkansas State Kennesaw State ----------------- -------------- -------------- elevation +0.0 +0.0 injury_hazard +0.0 +0.0 roster_talent -38.7 -100.0 travel_fatigue +3.8 +0.0 coaching_change +9.5 +11.8 ncaa_efficiency -20.0 +20.0 blowout_hangover +0.0 +0.0 home_field_vector +16.7 -- consecutive_road -- +0.0 ============================================================ HOW THIS COMPARES TO THE MARKET ============================================================ No market line available for this game yet. ============================================================ RANGE OF LIKELY OUTCOMES ============================================================ Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations. Projected score: Kennesaw State 28.8 -- Arkansas State 30.7 Percentile 10th 25th 50th 75th 90th --------------------- ----- ----- ---- ----- ----- Arkansas State margin -20.7 -10.0 +2.0 +13.5 +24.6 Total points 37.6 48.6 59.7 70.6 80.9 ============================================================ PLAYER PROPS: WHAT TO EXPECT ============================================================ Individual player projections, with each stat's real 68% likely range or touchdown probability: ARKANSAS STATE Player Pos Stat Proj. 68% range / TD odds -------------- --- --------------- ----- ------------------- Kenyon Clay RB Rushing yards 75.9 35-129 Carries 11.4 6-16 Rushing TDs 0.52 40% 1+, 10% 2+ Receiving yards 36.6 17-79 Receptions 3.0 2-4 Receiving TDs 0.52 40% 1+, 10% 2+ Devin Spencer RB Rushing yards 75.5 35-133 Carries 9.9 4-15 Rushing TDs 0.34 29% 1+ Receiving yards 23.3 4-43 Receptions 2.7 2-5 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Chauncy Cobb WR Receiving yards 44.2 9-73 Receptions 4.9 3-8 Receiving TDs 0.13 12% 1+ Hunter Summers WR Receiving yards 36.8 1-59 Receptions 3.7 2-5 Receiving TDs 0.26 23% 1+ Jabari Bush TE Receiving yards 24.5 1-39 Receptions 2.4 1-3 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Jaylen Bonelli WR Receiving yards 22.4 -- Receptions 2.8 0-4 Receiving TDs 0.26 23% 1+ AG McGhee S Tackles 6.5 4-9 Brandon Greil S Tackles 5.4 3-9 Shakai Woods DT Sacks 0.25 22% 1+ Sultan Badmus DE Sacks 0.17 15% 1+ KENNESAW STATE Player Pos Stat Proj. 68% range / TD odds ------------------ --- --------------- ----- ------------------- Rickie Collins QB Passing yards 191.4 107-298 Pass attempts 29.4 20-43 Completions 16.9 10-25 Passing TDs 0.87 58% 1+, 22% 2+ Rushing yards 23.5 -- Rushing TDs 0.17 16% 1+ Zion Booker WR Receiving yards 42.4 7-69 Receptions 4.9 3-8 Receiving TDs 0.13 12% 1+ Javon Rogers WR Receiving yards 37.3 2-76 Receptions 2.0 -- Receiving TDs 0.16 14% 1+ Davis Bryson WR Rushing yards 2.4 -- Rushing TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Receiving yards 22.1 -- Receptions 2.2 -- Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Gerard Bullock Jr. TE Receiving yards 21.7 -- Receptions 2.7 2-4 Receiving TDs 0.13 12% 1+ Baron Hopson LB Tackles 9.4 6-13 Tywon Christopher LB Tackles 8.2 6-11 Devin Morgan DL Sacks 0.44 36% 1+, 7% 2+ Kody Jones DB Sacks 0.25 22% 1+ ============================================================ GAME CONTEXT ============================================================ Arkansas State recent form: 2-3 over last 5 games Kennesaw State recent form: 3-2 over last 5 games Head-to-head history: Season Away Home Winner ------ ------- ------- ------ 2025 ARST 21 KENN 28 KENN ------------------------------------------------------------ Generated by spreadsim.com's model. See spreadsim.com/methodology for how these numbers are computed. spreadsim.com/games/10287