Southern Miss at Tulane NCAA, Week 4, 2026 regular season Kickoff: September 26, 2026 at 4:00 AM UTC Status: scheduled ============================================================ WHAT TO EXPECT ============================================================ spreadsim's model favors Tulane by 18.9 points, giving them a 85% chance to win outright. It projects a total of 53.9 combined points, with Tulane at 36.5 and Southern Miss at 17.4. Simulating the game 10,000 times, Tulane's margin lands between -2.8 and +41.1 points 80% of the time -- a real range, not a single guessed score. ============================================================ THE PREDICTION IN DETAIL ============================================================ Spread: Tulane -18.9 / Southern Miss +18.9 Moneyline: Tulane -585 / Southern Miss +585 Win probability: Tulane 85.4% / Southern Miss 14.6% Projected total: 53.9 points Last recalculated: September 8, 2026 at 6:02 AM UTC This comes from each team's Elo rating -- Tulane: 1586.5, Southern Miss: 1375.8 -- plus a +65.0-point home-field edge, adjusted by these real per-team factors (16.2 Elo points per spread point): Adjustment factor Tulane Southern Miss ----------------- ------ ------------- elevation +0.0 +0.0 injury_hazard +0.0 +0.0 roster_talent -4.1 -51.1 travel_fatigue +1.7 +0.0 coaching_change -26.8 -33.5 ncaa_efficiency -13.9 +20.0 blowout_hangover +0.0 +0.0 home_field_vector +9.5 -- consecutive_road -- +0.0 ============================================================ HOW THIS COMPARES TO THE MARKET ============================================================ No market line available for this game yet. ============================================================ RANGE OF LIKELY OUTCOMES ============================================================ Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations. Projected score: Southern Miss 17.4 -- Tulane 36.5 Percentile 10th 25th 50th 75th 90th ------------- ---- ---- ----- ----- ----- Tulane margin -2.8 +7.7 +18.8 +30.4 +41.1 Total points 32.8 42.5 53.9 65.2 75.3 ============================================================ PLAYER PROPS: WHAT TO EXPECT ============================================================ Individual player projections, with each stat's real 68% likely range or touchdown probability: TULANE Player Pos Stat Proj. 68% range / TD odds ---------------------- --- --------------- ----- ------------------- Zeon Chriss-Gremillion QB Passing yards 89.5 5-130 Pass attempts 15.4 6-21 Completions 7.7 2-10 Passing TDs 0.18 17% 1+ Rushing yards 27.1 -- Rushing TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Jamauri McClure RB Rushing yards 66.2 25-118 Carries 10.9 6-19 Rushing TDs 0.34 29% 1+ Receiving yards 15.5 -- Receptions 1.5 2-2 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Anthony Brown-Stephens WR Rushing yards 10.0 -- Rushing TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Receiving yards 46.9 11-79 Receptions 3.8 2-7 Receiving TDs 0.11 10% 1+ Destyn Hill WR Receiving yards 40.0 4-76 Receptions 3.3 1-6 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Maurice Turner RB Rushing yards 39.1 -- Carries 7.6 2-12 Rushing TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Zycarl Lewis Jr. WR Receiving yards 30.1 -- Receptions 2.4 0-4 Receiving TDs 0.11 10% 1+ Dawson Johnson TE Receiving yards 28.1 4-39 Receptions 1.8 0-2 Receiving TDs 0.14 13% 1+ Chris Rodgers LB Tackles 7.7 5-9 Sacks 0.19 17% 1+ Dickson Agu LB Tackles 7.2 4-10 Kameron Hamilton DE Sacks 0.31 27% 1+ SOUTHERN MISS Player Pos Stat Proj. 68% range / TD odds -------------- --- --------------- ----- ------------------- Landry Lyddy QB Passing yards 219.5 135-399 Pass attempts 26.2 18-53 Completions 16.5 10-35 Passing TDs 0.71 51% 1+, 16% 2+ Rushing yards 9.3 -- Rushing TDs 0.35 30% 1+ Brandon Hood RB Rushing yards 45.3 4-100 Carries 10.5 5-17 Rushing TDs 0.09 9% 1+ Receiving yards 15.7 -- Receptions 2.2 1-3 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Davis Dalton WR Receiving yards 42.1 6-64 Receptions 2.0 -- Receiving TDs 0.36 30% 1+, 5% 2+ Robert Briggs RB Rushing yards 35.5 -- Carries 7.8 2-11 Rushing TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Receiving yards 16.0 -- Receptions 2.3 1-3 Receiving TDs 0.11 10% 1+ Melvin Spriggs LB Tackles 4.9 2-9 Sacks 0.31 27% 1+ Mathis Haygood LB Tackles 4.4 2-8 Jameer Lewis DL Sacks 0.25 22% 1+ ============================================================ GAME CONTEXT ============================================================ Tulane recent form: 3-2 over last 5 games Southern Miss recent form: 1-4 over last 5 games Head-to-head history: Season Away Home Winner ------ ------- ----- ------ 2023 TULN 21 USM 3 TULN ------------------------------------------------------------ Generated by spreadsim.com's model. See spreadsim.com/methodology for how these numbers are computed. spreadsim.com/games/10288