Oregon at USC NCAA, Week 4, 2026 regular season Kickoff: September 26, 2026 at 4:00 AM UTC Status: scheduled ============================================================ WHAT TO EXPECT ============================================================ spreadsim's model favors Oregon by 1.6 points, giving them a 54% chance to win outright. It projects a total of 53.0 combined points, with USC at 25.8 and Oregon at 27.1. Simulating the game 10,000 times, USC's margin lands between -23.5 and +21.0 points 80% of the time -- a real range, not a single guessed score. Injury watch: Terrell Anderson (Out). ============================================================ THE PREDICTION IN DETAIL ============================================================ Spread: USC +1.6 / Oregon -1.6 Moneyline: USC +116 / Oregon -116 Win probability: USC 46.2% / Oregon 53.8% Projected total: 53.0 points Last recalculated: September 8, 2026 at 6:02 AM UTC This comes from each team's Elo rating -- USC: 1675.1, Oregon: 1803.1 -- plus a +65.0-point home-field edge, adjusted by these real per-team factors (16.2 Elo points per spread point): Adjustment factor USC Oregon ----------------- ------ ------ elevation +0.0 +0.0 injury_hazard -3.0 +0.0 roster_talent +100.0 +100.0 travel_fatigue +4.0 +1.8 coaching_change +7.1 +9.5 ncaa_efficiency +20.0 +0.4 blowout_hangover +0.0 +0.0 home_field_vector +20.0 -- consecutive_road -- +0.0 ============================================================ HOW THIS COMPARES TO THE MARKET ============================================================ No market line available for this game yet. Line movement: opened USC +5.5 (July 13, 2026 at 7:21 AM UTC), now +5.5 (August 10, 2026 at 12:20 PM UTC), 115 snapshots on record. ============================================================ RANGE OF LIKELY OUTCOMES ============================================================ Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations. Projected score: Oregon 27.1 -- USC 25.8 Percentile 10th 25th 50th 75th 90th ------------ ----- ----- ---- ----- ----- USC margin -23.5 -13.1 -1.2 +10.6 +21.0 Total points 31.5 41.8 52.8 64.0 74.1 ============================================================ PLAYER PROPS: WHAT TO EXPECT ============================================================ Individual player projections, with each stat's real 68% likely range or touchdown probability: USC Player Pos Stat Proj. 68% range / TD odds ------------------ --- --------------- ----- ------------------- Jayden Maiava QB Passing yards 179.3 95-226 Pass attempts 30.3 22-37 Completions 20.3 14-26 Passing TDs 1.73 82% 1+, 52% 2+ Rushing yards 12.0 -- Rushing TDs 0.37 31% 1+, 5% 2+ King Miller RB Rushing yards 64.5 24-102 Carries 14.7 9-18 Rushing TDs 0.54 41% 1+, 10% 2+ Receiving yards 16.1 -- Receptions 2.5 1-4 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Waymond Jordan RB Rushing yards 62.3 21-111 Carries 12.2 6-18 Rushing TDs 0.54 41% 1+, 10% 2+ Receiving yards 14.9 -- Receptions 2.1 1-3 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Tanook Hines WR Receiving yards 53.0 17-114 Receptions 3.5 2-6 Receiving TDs 0.33 28% 1+ Zacharyus Williams WR Receiving yards 40.3 5-59 Receptions 2.8 0-4 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Terrell Anderson WR Receiving yards 23.7 -- Receptions 1.8 -- Receiving TDs 0.20 18% 1+ Carson Tabaracci TE Receiving yards 13.2 -- Receptions 2.1 0-3 Receiving TDs 0.24 22% 1+ Desman Stephens II LB Tackles 7.2 4-12 Alex Graham CB Tackles 4.9 3-8 Jadyn Ramos DE Sacks 0.50 39% 1+, 9% 2+ Jide Abasiri DT Sacks 0.44 36% 1+, 7% 2+ OREGON Player Pos Stat Proj. 68% range / TD odds ------------------ --- --------------- ----- ------------------- Dante Moore QB Passing yards 228.7 144-302 Pass attempts 30.5 22-36 Completions 21.3 15-27 Passing TDs 1.73 82% 1+, 52% 2+ Rushing yards 7.8 -- Rushing TDs 0.25 22% 1+ Jordon Davison RB Rushing yards 68.0 27-101 Carries 11.2 6-15 Rushing TDs 0.78 54% 1+, 18% 2+ Receiving yards 15.4 -- Receptions 2.4 1-4 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Iverson Hooks WR Receiving yards 61.3 26-109 Receptions 5.4 4-8 Receiving TDs 0.62 46% 1+, 13% 2+ Dierre Hill Jr. RB Rushing yards 54.6 14-86 Carries 7.6 2-10 Rushing TDs 0.19 18% 1+ Receiving yards 21.6 2-36 Receptions 2.5 1-3 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Jeremiah McClellan WR Receiving yards 50.7 15-93 Receptions 3.8 2-6 Receiving TDs 0.37 31% 1+, 5% 2+ Jamari Johnson TE Receiving yards 47.2 24-65 Receptions 3.3 2-4 Receiving TDs 0.39 32% 1+, 6% 2+ Dakorien Moore WR Receiving yards 43.2 8-73 Receptions 3.6 2-6 Receiving TDs 0.25 22% 1+ Koi Perich DB Tackles 6.7 4-10 Teitum Tuioti LB Tackles 5.1 2-7 Sacks 0.88 58% 1+, 22% 2+ Matayo Uiagalelei LB Sacks 0.38 31% 1+, 6% 2+ ============================================================ GAME CONTEXT ============================================================ USC recent form: 3-2 over last 5 games Oregon recent form: 4-1 over last 5 games Head-to-head history: Season Away Home Winner ------ ------ ------ ------ 2025 USC 27 ORE 42 ORE 2023 USC 27 ORE 36 ORE Injury/hazard flags: Player Pos Team Status ---------------- --- ---- ------ Terrell Anderson WR USC Out ------------------------------------------------------------ Generated by spreadsim.com's model. See spreadsim.com/methodology for how these numbers are computed. spreadsim.com/games/10289