Iowa at Michigan NCAA, Week 4, 2026 regular season Kickoff: September 26, 2026 at 4:00 AM UTC Status: scheduled ============================================================ WHAT TO EXPECT ============================================================ spreadsim's model favors Michigan by 2.7 points, giving them a 56% chance to win outright. It projects a total of 38.6 combined points, with Michigan at 20.5 and Iowa at 18.0. Simulating the game 10,000 times, Michigan's margin lands between -19.6 and +24.8 points 80% of the time -- a real range, not a single guessed score. Injury watch: Hogan Hansen (Out). ============================================================ THE PREDICTION IN DETAIL ============================================================ Spread: Michigan -2.7 / Iowa +2.7 Moneyline: Michigan -128 / Iowa +128 Win probability: Michigan 56.2% / Iowa 43.8% Projected total: 38.6 points Last recalculated: September 8, 2026 at 6:02 AM UTC This comes from each team's Elo rating -- Michigan: 1634.4, Iowa: 1693.8 -- plus a +65.0-point home-field edge, adjusted by these real per-team factors (16.2 Elo points per spread point): Adjustment factor Michigan Iowa ----------------- -------- ----- elevation +0.0 +0.0 injury_hazard -3.0 +0.0 roster_talent +100.0 +29.9 travel_fatigue +4.0 +2.8 coaching_change -26.8 +9.5 ncaa_efficiency +14.4 +20.0 blowout_hangover +0.0 +0.0 home_field_vector +11.1 -- consecutive_road -- +0.0 ============================================================ HOW THIS COMPARES TO THE MARKET ============================================================ No market line available for this game yet. ============================================================ RANGE OF LIKELY OUTCOMES ============================================================ Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations. Projected score: Iowa 18.0 -- Michigan 20.5 Percentile 10th 25th 50th 75th 90th --------------- ----- ---- ---- ----- ----- Michigan margin -19.6 -9.1 +2.3 +14.3 +24.8 Total points 17.2 27.3 38.5 49.7 59.8 ============================================================ PLAYER PROPS: WHAT TO EXPECT ============================================================ Individual player projections, with each stat's real 68% likely range or touchdown probability: MICHIGAN Player Pos Stat Proj. 68% range / TD odds ---------------- --- --------------- ----- ------------------- Bryce Underwood QB Passing yards 158.5 74-225 Pass attempts 26.8 18-36 Completions 16.3 10-23 Passing TDs 0.65 48% 1+, 14% 2+ Rushing yards 27.7 -- Rushing TDs 0.37 31% 1+, 5% 2+ Jordan Marshall RB Rushing yards 76.3 35-134 Carries 13.0 8-20 Rushing TDs 0.64 48% 1+, 14% 2+ Receiving yards 17.2 -- Receptions 2.0 1-3 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Andrew Marsh WR Receiving yards 65.1 30-138 Receptions 4.6 2-8 Receiving TDs 0.38 32% 1+, 6% 2+ JJ Buchanan WR Receiving yards 60.8 25-100 Receptions 3.1 1-5 Receiving TDs 0.38 32% 1+, 6% 2+ Bryson Kuzdzal RB Rushing yards 54.6 14-94 Carries 11.1 6-19 Rushing TDs 0.42 34% 1+, 7% 2+ Receiving yards 13.5 -- Receptions 2.3 1-3 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Channing Goodwin WR Receiving yards 26.2 -- Receptions 1.9 -- Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Zack Marshall TE Receiving yards 22.7 -- Receptions 2.5 1-4 Receiving TDs 0.07 7% 1+ Deakon Tonielli TE Receiving yards 17.8 -- Receptions 2.2 1-3 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Chris Bracy S Tackles 6.7 4-8 Smith Snowden CB Tackles 4.2 2-6 John Henry Daley DE Sacks 0.69 50% 1+, 15% 2+ Dominic Nichols DE Sacks 0.19 17% 1+ IOWA Player Pos Stat Proj. 68% range / TD odds ---------------- --- --------------- ----- ------------------- Hank Brown QB Passing yards 126.6 42-175 Pass attempts 21.5 12-29 Completions 12.6 6-17 Passing TDs 0.57 44% 1+, 11% 2+ Kamari Moulton RB Rushing yards 70.4 30-104 Carries 14.1 8-18 Rushing TDs 0.46 37% 1+, 8% 2+ Receiving yards 14.9 -- Receptions 2.4 1-3 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ DJ Vonnahme TE Receiving yards 45.9 22-97 Receptions 3.5 2-5 Receiving TDs 0.40 33% 1+, 6% 2+ Nathan McNeil RB Rushing yards 33.6 -- Carries 8.4 3-12 Rushing TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Receiving yards 18.7 -- Receptions 2.6 2-4 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Reece Vander Zee WR Receiving yards 29.5 -- Receptions 2.2 -- Receiving TDs 0.21 19% 1+ Dayton Howard WR Receiving yards 20.9 -- Receptions 1.7 -- Receiving TDs 0.14 13% 1+ Zach Ortwerth TE Receiving yards 18.4 -- Receptions 1.7 -- Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Tyler Brown DB Tackles 5.8 4-10 Sacks 0.12 12% 1+ Zach Lutmer DB Tackles 5.4 4-7 Lance Ingold DL Sacks 0.30 26% 1+ ============================================================ GAME CONTEXT ============================================================ Michigan recent form: 3-2 over last 5 games Iowa recent form: 4-1 over last 5 games Head-to-head history: Season Away Home Winner ------ ------- ------ ------ 2023 MICH 26 IOWA 0 MICH Injury/hazard flags: Player Pos Team Status ------------ --- ---- ------ Hogan Hansen TE MICH Out ------------------------------------------------------------ Generated by spreadsim.com's model. See spreadsim.com/methodology for how these numbers are computed. spreadsim.com/games/10290