Massachusetts at Sacramento State NCAA, Week 4, 2026 regular season Kickoff: September 26, 2026 at 4:00 AM UTC Status: scheduled ============================================================ WHAT TO EXPECT ============================================================ spreadsim's model favors Sacramento State by 14.5 points, giving them a 79% chance to win outright. It projects a total of 38.4 combined points, with Sacramento State at 26.6 and Massachusetts at 12.1. Simulating the game 10,000 times, Sacramento State's margin lands between -7.9 and +36.5 points 80% of the time -- a real range, not a single guessed score. ============================================================ THE PREDICTION IN DETAIL ============================================================ Spread: Sacramento State -14.5 / Massachusetts +14.5 Moneyline: Sacramento State -387 / Massachusetts +387 Win probability: Sacramento State 79.5% / Massachusetts 20.5% Projected total: 38.4 points Last recalculated: September 8, 2026 at 6:01 AM UTC This comes from each team's Elo rating -- Sacramento State: 1421.3, Massachusetts: 1244.2 -- plus a +65.0-point home-field edge, adjusted by these real per-team factors (16.2 Elo points per spread point): Adjustment factor Sacramento State Massachusetts ----------------- ---------------- ------------- elevation +0.0 +0.0 injury_hazard +0.0 +0.0 roster_talent -65.1 -86.0 travel_fatigue -2.0 -3.4 coaching_change -26.8 +9.5 ncaa_efficiency +2.5 -4.5 blowout_hangover +0.0 +0.0 home_field_vector +0.0 -- consecutive_road -- +0.0 ============================================================ HOW THIS COMPARES TO THE MARKET ============================================================ No market line available for this game yet. ============================================================ RANGE OF LIKELY OUTCOMES ============================================================ Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations. Projected score: Massachusetts 12.1 -- Sacramento State 26.6 Percentile 10th 25th 50th 75th 90th ----------------------- ---- ---- ----- ----- ----- Sacramento State margin -7.9 +2.9 +14.4 +26.3 +36.5 Total points 17.8 27.5 38.9 49.8 59.9 ============================================================ PLAYER PROPS: WHAT TO EXPECT ============================================================ Individual player projections, with each stat's real 68% likely range or touchdown probability: SACRAMENTO STATE Player Pos Stat Proj. 68% range / TD odds --------------- --- --------------- ----- ------------------- Carson Conklin QB Passing yards 184.2 100-284 Pass attempts 31.5 23-45 Completions 17.7 12-26 Passing TDs 0.33 28% 1+ Rushing yards -1.2 -- Rushing TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Matt Coleman WR Receiving yards 28.1 -- Receptions 3.2 1-5 Receiving TDs 0.15 14% 1+ Boogsie Silvera S Tackles 5.0 2-11 Sacks 0.00 0% 1+ Tim Thomas LB Tackles 4.7 2-7 Sacks 0.00 0% 1+ MASSACHUSETTS Player Pos Stat Proj. 68% range / TD odds ---------------------- --- --------------- ----- ------------------- Kezion Dia-Johnson WR Receiving yards 38.7 3-62 Receptions 2.7 0-4 Receiving TDs 0.33 28% 1+ Reece Adkins TE Receiving yards 33.9 10-59 Receptions 1.9 0-2 Receiving TDs 0.15 14% 1+ Max Dowling TE Receiving yards 33.0 9-67 Receptions 2.4 1-4 Receiving TDs 0.23 20% 1+ Justin Williams-Thomas RB Rushing yards 26.4 -- Carries 6.4 1-9 Rushing TDs 0.13 12% 1+ Elijah Faulkner RB Rushing yards 25.1 -- Carries 9.1 4-15 Rushing TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Dallas Elliott WR Receiving yards 23.5 -- Receptions 2.3 -- Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Timmy Hinspeter LB Tackles 8.7 6-13 Sacks 0.29 25% 1+ Tyler Martin LB Tackles 8.5 6-12 Zeraun Daniel S Sacks 0.12 12% 1+ ============================================================ GAME CONTEXT ============================================================ Sacramento State recent form: 1-4 over last 5 games Massachusetts recent form: 1-4 over last 5 games ------------------------------------------------------------ Generated by spreadsim.com's model. See spreadsim.com/methodology for how these numbers are computed. spreadsim.com/games/10291