Illinois at Ohio State NCAA, Week 4, 2026 regular season Kickoff: September 26, 2026 at 4:00 AM UTC Status: scheduled ============================================================ WHAT TO EXPECT ============================================================ spreadsim's model favors Ohio State by 22.2 points, giving them a 89% chance to win outright. It projects a total of 41.0 combined points, with Ohio State at 31.7 and Illinois at 9.6. Simulating the game 10,000 times, Ohio State's margin lands between -0.2 and +44.1 points 80% of the time -- a real range, not a single guessed score. ============================================================ THE PREDICTION IN DETAIL ============================================================ Spread: Ohio State -22.2 / Illinois +22.2 Moneyline: Ohio State -799 / Illinois +799 Win probability: Ohio State 88.9% / Illinois 11.1% Projected total: 41.0 points Last recalculated: September 8, 2026 at 6:02 AM UTC This comes from each team's Elo rating -- Ohio State: 1795.7, Illinois: 1590.9 -- plus a +65.0-point home-field edge, adjusted by these real per-team factors (16.2 Elo points per spread point): Adjustment factor Ohio State Illinois ----------------- ---------- -------- elevation +0.0 +0.0 injury_hazard +0.0 +0.0 roster_talent +100.0 +18.9 travel_fatigue +4.0 +3.2 coaching_change +9.5 +9.5 ncaa_efficiency +20.0 +20.0 blowout_hangover +0.0 +0.0 home_field_vector +9.3 -- consecutive_road -- +0.0 ============================================================ HOW THIS COMPARES TO THE MARKET ============================================================ No market line available for this game yet. ============================================================ RANGE OF LIKELY OUTCOMES ============================================================ Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations. Projected score: Illinois 9.6 -- Ohio State 31.7 Percentile 10th 25th 50th 75th 90th ----------------- ---- ----- ----- ----- ----- Ohio State margin -0.2 +10.4 +22.2 +33.8 +44.1 Total points 20.2 29.8 41.1 52.6 62.8 ============================================================ PLAYER PROPS: WHAT TO EXPECT ============================================================ Individual player projections, with each stat's real 68% likely range or touchdown probability: OHIO STATE Player Pos Stat Proj. 68% range / TD odds -------------------- --- --------------- ----- ------------------- Julian Sayin QB Passing yards 265.0 180-335 Pass attempts 28.1 20-34 Completions 20.2 14-24 Passing TDs 2.12 88% 1+, 62% 2+ Rushing yards -0.3 -- Rushing TDs 0.13 12% 1+ Jeremiah Smith WR Rushing yards 12.0 -- Rushing TDs 0.27 23% 1+ Receiving yards 83.6 48-132 Receptions 5.8 4-8 Receiving TDs 0.93 61% 1+, 24% 2+ Bo Jackson RB Rushing yards 69.8 29-90 Carries 13.2 8-18 Rushing TDs 0.68 49% 1+, 15% 2+ Receiving yards 20.5 1-38 Receptions 2.6 2-4 Receiving TDs 0.14 13% 1+ Devin McCuin WR Receiving yards 60.0 24-96 Receptions 4.9 3-7 Receiving TDs 0.80 55% 1+, 19% 2+ Ja'Kobi Jackson RB Rushing yards 45.2 4-76 Carries 8.1 2-9 Rushing TDs 0.27 24% 1+ Kyle Parker WR Receiving yards 35.9 0-61 Receptions 3.5 2-6 Receiving TDs 0.40 33% 1+, 6% 2+ Hunter Welcing TE Receiving yards 24.6 1-45 Receptions 2.9 2-4 Receiving TDs 0.09 9% 1+ Mason Williams TE Receiving yards 18.8 -- Receptions 2.0 0-3 Receiving TDs 0.09 9% 1+ Earl Little Jr. S Tackles 5.6 4-7 Christian Alliegro LB Tackles 5.1 2-9 Kenyatta Jackson Jr. DE Sacks 0.50 39% 1+, 9% 2+ Eddrick Houston DT Sacks 0.38 31% 1+, 6% 2+ ILLINOIS Player Pos Stat Proj. 68% range / TD odds ---------------- --- --------------- ----- ------------------- Katin Houser QB Passing yards 152.9 68-189 Pass attempts 30.3 22-38 Completions 19.6 14-24 Passing TDs 1.15 68% 1+, 32% 2+ Rushing yards 15.1 -- Rushing TDs 0.61 46% 1+, 13% 2+ Alex Perry WR Receiving yards 46.2 10-70 Receptions 4.6 2-7 Receiving TDs 0.52 41% 1+, 10% 2+ Ca'Lil Valentine RB Rushing yards 36.4 -- Carries 10.7 5-16 Rushing TDs 0.15 14% 1+ Receiving yards 10.3 -- Receptions 2.2 1-3 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Jayshon Platt WR Receiving yards 36.4 1-66 Receptions 3.5 2-5 Receiving TDs 0.30 26% 1+ Aidan Laughery RB Rushing yards 31.6 -- Carries 9.4 4-12 Rushing TDs 0.07 7% 1+ Receiving yards 10.2 -- Receptions 2.5 1-4 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Hudson Clement WR Receiving yards 29.3 -- Receptions 3.4 2-5 Receiving TDs 0.23 20% 1+ Kaden Feagin TE Receiving yards 23.9 0-41 Receptions 2.4 1-3 Receiving TDs 0.13 12% 1+ Matthew Bailey DB Tackles 6.7 4-9 Will Holmes LB Tackles 5.2 2-9 Darrell Prater DL Sacks 0.38 31% 1+, 6% 2+ Joe Barna DL Sacks 0.25 22% 1+ ============================================================ GAME CONTEXT ============================================================ Ohio State recent form: 3-2 over last 5 games Illinois recent form: 4-1 over last 5 games Head-to-head history: Season Away Home Winner ------ ------ ------ ------ 2025 OSU 34 ILL 16 OSU ------------------------------------------------------------ Generated by spreadsim.com's model. See spreadsim.com/methodology for how these numbers are computed. spreadsim.com/games/10292