Wisconsin at Penn State NCAA, Week 4, 2026 regular season Kickoff: September 26, 2026 at 4:00 AM UTC Status: scheduled ============================================================ WHAT TO EXPECT ============================================================ spreadsim's model favors Penn State by 20.2 points, giving them a 87% chance to win outright. It projects a total of 35.0 combined points, with Penn State at 27.7 and Wisconsin at 7.5. Simulating the game 10,000 times, Penn State's margin lands between -1.9 and +42.1 points 80% of the time -- a real range, not a single guessed score. ============================================================ THE PREDICTION IN DETAIL ============================================================ Spread: Penn State -20.2 / Wisconsin +20.2 Moneyline: Penn State -661 / Wisconsin +661 Win probability: Penn State 86.9% / Wisconsin 13.2% Projected total: 35.0 points Last recalculated: September 8, 2026 at 6:01 AM UTC This comes from each team's Elo rating -- Penn State: 1689.5, Wisconsin: 1464.8 -- plus a +65.0-point home-field edge, adjusted by these real per-team factors (16.2 Elo points per spread point): Adjustment factor Penn State Wisconsin ----------------- ---------- --------- elevation +0.0 +0.0 injury_hazard +0.0 +0.0 roster_talent +60.1 +56.3 travel_fatigue +4.0 +2.7 coaching_change -26.8 +9.5 ncaa_efficiency +20.0 -20.0 blowout_hangover +0.0 -20.0 home_field_vector +9.5 -- consecutive_road -- +0.0 ============================================================ HOW THIS COMPARES TO THE MARKET ============================================================ No market line available for this game yet. ============================================================ RANGE OF LIKELY OUTCOMES ============================================================ Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations. Projected score: Wisconsin 7.5 -- Penn State 27.7 Percentile 10th 25th 50th 75th 90th ----------------- ---- ---- ----- ----- ----- Penn State margin -1.9 +8.8 +20.2 +31.9 +42.1 Total points 13.8 23.9 35.2 46.2 56.8 ============================================================ PLAYER PROPS: WHAT TO EXPECT ============================================================ Individual player projections, with each stat's real 68% likely range or touchdown probability: PENN STATE Player Pos Stat Proj. 68% range / TD odds ---------------- --- --------------- ----- ------------------- Rocco Becht QB Passing yards 215.5 131-304 Pass attempts 29.5 21-41 Completions 17.7 12-26 Passing TDs 1.70 82% 1+, 51% 2+ Rushing yards 13.2 -- Rushing TDs 0.39 32% 1+, 6% 2+ Carson Hansen RB Rushing yards 62.0 21-99 Carries 13.8 8-21 Rushing TDs 0.67 49% 1+, 15% 2+ Receiving yards 15.8 -- Receptions 2.6 2-4 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Koby Howard WR Receiving yards 51.7 16-114 Receptions 2.8 1-5 Receiving TDs 0.18 16% 1+ Brett Eskildsen WR Receiving yards 48.5 13-88 Receptions 3.4 2-6 Receiving TDs 0.66 48% 1+, 14% 2+ Chase Sowell WR Receiving yards 47.7 12-74 Receptions 3.4 2-5 Receiving TDs 0.26 23% 1+ James Peoples RB Rushing yards 34.5 -- Carries 7.3 2-10 Rushing TDs 0.34 28% 1+ Receiving yards 10.5 -- Receptions 2.3 1-3 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Benjamin Brahmer TE Receiving yards 23.4 -- Receptions 2.9 2-5 Receiving TDs 0.58 44% 1+, 12% 2+ Gabe Burkle TE Receiving yards 18.2 -- Receptions 2.9 2-4 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Kooper Ebel LB Tackles 6.7 4-10 Tony Rojas LB Tackles 6.5 4-10 Caleb Bacon LB Sacks 0.50 39% 1+, 9% 2+ Vaboue Toure S Sacks 0.25 22% 1+ WISCONSIN Player Pos Stat Proj. 68% range / TD odds ---------------- --- --------------- ----- ------------------- Colton Joseph QB Passing yards 173.1 88-233 Pass attempts 25.5 17-31 Completions 15.1 9-20 Passing TDs 1.08 66% 1+, 29% 2+ Rushing yards 46.1 6-100 Rushing TDs 0.86 58% 1+, 21% 2+ Abu Sama III RB Rushing yards 59.2 18-110 Carries 12.0 6-20 Rushing TDs 0.25 22% 1+ Receiving yards 9.9 -- Receptions 2.4 1-3 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Darrion Dupree RB Rushing yards 45.0 4-88 Carries 9.9 4-16 Rushing TDs 0.17 16% 1+ Receiving yards 12.6 -- Receptions 2.4 1-3 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Shamar Rigby WR Receiving yards 35.8 0-60 Receptions 2.9 1-5 Receiving TDs 0.13 12% 1+ Malachi Coleman WR Receiving yards 35.1 -- Receptions 2.4 0-4 Receiving TDs 0.20 18% 1+ Jacob Harris TE Receiving yards 22.6 -- Receptions 2.2 0-3 Receiving TDs 0.32 28% 1+ Grant Stec TE Receiving yards 20.3 -- Receptions 2.2 1-3 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Chris Brooks Jr. WR Receiving yards 18.9 -- Receptions 1.9 -- Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Mason Posa LB Tackles 7.9 5-13 Sacks 0.44 36% 1+, 7% 2+ Cooper Catalano LB Tackles 7.2 4-13 Sebastian Cheeks LB Sacks 0.38 31% 1+, 6% 2+ ============================================================ GAME CONTEXT ============================================================ Penn State recent form: 5-0 over last 5 games Wisconsin recent form: 2-3 over last 5 games Head-to-head history: Season Away Home Winner ------ ------ ------ ------ 2024 PSU 28 WIS 13 PSU ------------------------------------------------------------ Generated by spreadsim.com's model. See spreadsim.com/methodology for how these numbers are computed. spreadsim.com/games/10293