Delaware at Virginia NCAA, Week 4, 2026 regular season Kickoff: September 26, 2026 at 4:00 AM UTC Status: scheduled ============================================================ WHAT TO EXPECT ============================================================ spreadsim's model favors Virginia by 21.8 points, giving them a 88% chance to win outright. It projects a total of 46.3 combined points, with Virginia at 34.2 and Delaware at 12.2. Simulating the game 10,000 times, Virginia's margin lands between -0.7 and +44.2 points 80% of the time -- a real range, not a single guessed score. ============================================================ THE PREDICTION IN DETAIL ============================================================ Spread: Virginia -21.8 / Delaware +21.8 Moneyline: Virginia -769 / Delaware +769 Win probability: Virginia 88.5% / Delaware 11.5% Projected total: 46.3 points Last recalculated: September 8, 2026 at 6:01 AM UTC This comes from each team's Elo rating -- Virginia: 1620.2, Delaware: 1448.8 -- plus a +65.0-point home-field edge, adjusted by these real per-team factors (16.2 Elo points per spread point): Adjustment factor Virginia Delaware ----------------- -------- -------- elevation +0.0 +0.0 injury_hazard +0.0 +0.0 roster_talent +16.6 -100.0 travel_fatigue +4.0 +0.0 coaching_change +9.5 +11.8 ncaa_efficiency +20.0 +20.0 blowout_hangover +0.0 +0.0 home_field_vector -0.3 -- consecutive_road -- +0.0 ============================================================ HOW THIS COMPARES TO THE MARKET ============================================================ No market line available for this game yet. ============================================================ RANGE OF LIKELY OUTCOMES ============================================================ Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations. Projected score: Delaware 12.2 -- Virginia 34.2 Percentile 10th 25th 50th 75th 90th --------------- ---- ----- ----- ----- ----- Virginia margin -0.7 +10.7 +22.3 +33.7 +44.2 Total points 25.4 35.2 46.4 57.6 67.9 ============================================================ PLAYER PROPS: WHAT TO EXPECT ============================================================ Individual player projections, with each stat's real 68% likely range or touchdown probability: VIRGINIA Player Pos Stat Proj. 68% range / TD odds ------------------ --- --------------- ----- ------------------- Beau Pribula QB Passing yards 186.3 102-276 Pass attempts 26.3 18-39 Completions 16.6 10-25 Passing TDs 0.77 54% 1+, 18% 2+ Rushing yards 39.1 -- Rushing TDs 0.39 32% 1+, 6% 2+ Jekail Middlebrook RB Rushing yards 69.2 28-108 Carries 12.9 8-18 Rushing TDs 0.76 53% 1+, 18% 2+ Receiving yards 31.2 12-62 Receptions 3.2 2-5 Receiving TDs 0.57 43% 1+, 11% 2+ Jacquon Gibson WR Rushing yards 14.8 -- Rushing TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Receiving yards 61.9 26-112 Receptions 5.8 4-8 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Da'Shawn Martin WR Receiving yards 52.2 16-77 Receptions 3.4 2-5 Receiving TDs 0.59 45% 1+, 12% 2+ Xavier Brown RB Rushing yards 46.1 5-66 Carries 8.8 4-11 Rushing TDs 0.22 20% 1+ Receiving yards 23.9 4-54 Receptions 2.3 1-3 Receiving TDs 0.76 53% 1+, 18% 2+ Rico Flores Jr. WR Receiving yards 39.1 4-61 Receptions 3.4 2-5 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Dakota Twitty TE Receiving yards 36.9 13-59 Receptions 2.9 2-5 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ John Rogers TE Receiving yards 31.9 8-54 Receptions 2.1 0-3 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Kam Robinson LB Tackles 8.6 6-11 Sacks 0.29 25% 1+ Jaylen Jones S Tackles 5.5 3-8 Nnanna Anyanwu DE Sacks 0.62 46% 1+, 13% 2+ DELAWARE Player Pos Stat Proj. 68% range / TD odds ----------------- --- --------------- ----- ------------------- Nick Minicucci QB Passing yards 222.6 138-305 Pass attempts 37.0 28-46 Completions 23.5 18-28 Passing TDs 1.44 76% 1+, 42% 2+ Rushing yards 15.7 -- Rushing TDs 0.29 25% 1+ Sean Wilson WR Receiving yards 58.3 23-103 Receptions 5.1 3-7 Receiving TDs 0.24 21% 1+ Jo Silver RB Rushing yards 48.8 8-83 Carries 11.0 6-16 Rushing TDs 0.33 28% 1+ Receiving yards 21.4 2-44 Receptions 2.8 2-4 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Viron Ellison Jr. RB Rushing yards 42.4 2-68 Carries 10.6 5-16 Rushing TDs 0.44 36% 1+, 7% 2+ Receiving yards 19.4 0-41 Receptions 2.7 2-5 Receiving TDs 0.22 20% 1+ Bryson Graves WR Receiving yards 29.0 -- Receptions 3.0 1-5 Receiving TDs 0.16 15% 1+ Donovan Lewis WR Receiving yards 29.0 -- Receptions 2.8 1-4 Receiving TDs 0.08 8% 1+ Elijah Sessoms TE Receiving yards 21.4 -- Receptions 2.7 1-4 Receiving TDs 0.27 23% 1+ Scott Moore TE Receiving yards 16.7 -- Receptions 2.1 0-3 Receiving TDs 0.27 23% 1+ Gavin Moul LB Tackles 8.2 6-12 KT Seay S Tackles 6.5 4-9 Brandon Gorham DE Sacks 0.38 31% 1+, 6% 2+ Noah Matthews DE Sacks 0.25 22% 1+ ============================================================ GAME CONTEXT ============================================================ Virginia recent form: 4-1 over last 5 games Delaware recent form: 3-2 over last 5 games ------------------------------------------------------------ Generated by spreadsim.com's model. See spreadsim.com/methodology for how these numbers are computed. spreadsim.com/games/10294