Missouri State at SMU NCAA, Week 4, 2026 regular season Kickoff: September 26, 2026 at 4:00 AM UTC Status: scheduled ============================================================ WHAT TO EXPECT ============================================================ spreadsim's model favors SMU by 34.1 points, giving them a 96% chance to win outright. It projects a total of 54.0 combined points, with SMU at 44.1 and Missouri State at 9.9. Simulating the game 10,000 times, SMU's margin lands between +11.8 and +56.7 points 80% of the time -- a real range, not a single guessed score. ============================================================ THE PREDICTION IN DETAIL ============================================================ Spread: SMU -34.1 / Missouri State +34.1 Moneyline: SMU -2437 / Missouri State +2437 Win probability: SMU 96.1% / Missouri State 3.9% Projected total: 54.0 points Last recalculated: September 8, 2026 at 6:02 AM UTC This comes from each team's Elo rating -- SMU: 1667.4, Missouri State: 1408.8 -- plus a +65.0-point home-field edge, adjusted by these real per-team factors (16.2 Elo points per spread point): Adjustment factor SMU Missouri State ----------------- ----- -------------- elevation +0.0 +0.0 injury_hazard +0.0 +0.0 roster_talent +68.1 -71.9 travel_fatigue +0.0 +3.5 coaching_change +11.8 -26.8 ncaa_efficiency +0.0 -20.0 blowout_hangover +0.0 -20.0 home_field_vector +16.1 -- consecutive_road -- +0.0 ============================================================ HOW THIS COMPARES TO THE MARKET ============================================================ No market line available for this game yet. ============================================================ RANGE OF LIKELY OUTCOMES ============================================================ Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations. Projected score: Missouri State 9.9 -- SMU 44.1 Percentile 10th 25th 50th 75th 90th ------------ ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- SMU margin +11.8 +22.3 +34.3 +45.9 +56.7 Total points 32.9 42.9 54.1 65.2 75.2 ============================================================ PLAYER PROPS: WHAT TO EXPECT ============================================================ Individual player projections, with each stat's real 68% likely range or touchdown probability: SMU Player Pos Stat Proj. 68% range / TD odds ------------------- --- --------------- ----- ------------------- Kevin Jennings QB Passing yards 286.8 202-354 Pass attempts 35.0 26-40 Completions 21.9 16-26 Passing TDs 1.72 82% 1+, 51% 2+ Rushing yards 8.6 -- Rushing TDs 0.40 33% 1+, 6% 2+ Kendrick Raphael RB Rushing yards 62.4 22-84 Carries 14.8 9-21 Rushing TDs 1.41 76% 1+, 41% 2+ Receiving yards 23.8 4-44 Receptions 3.3 2-4 Receiving TDs 0.13 12% 1+ Yannick Smith WR Receiving yards 52.2 16-97 Receptions 4.1 2-7 Receiving TDs 0.67 49% 1+, 14% 2+ Yamir Knight WR Receiving yards 51.3 16-101 Receptions 4.4 2-6 Receiving TDs 0.40 33% 1+, 6% 2+ Jalen Cooper WR Receiving yards 41.9 6-74 Receptions 2.8 1-4 Receiving TDs 0.18 16% 1+ Dramekco Green RB Rushing yards 33.9 -- Carries 8.3 2-10 Rushing TDs 0.26 23% 1+ Randy Pittman TE Receiving yards 28.9 5-45 Receptions 2.9 2-5 Receiving TDs 0.30 26% 1+ Theo Melin Ohrstrom TE Receiving yards 24.8 1-42 Receptions 2.3 1-3 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Alexander Kilgore LB Tackles 6.6 4-10 Tyren Polley S Tackles 5.6 4-8 Jarvis Lee S Sacks 0.50 39% 1+, 9% 2+ Marques White DE Sacks 0.38 31% 1+, 6% 2+ MISSOURI STATE Player Pos Stat Proj. 68% range / TD odds ----------------- --- --------------- ----- ------------------- Skyler Locklear QB Passing yards 242.9 158-377 Pass attempts 28.1 20-36 Completions 16.0 10-21 Passing TDs 1.88 85% 1+, 56% 2+ Rushing yards 52.5 12-97 Rushing TDs 1.25 71% 1+, 36% 2+ Jmariyae Robinson WR Rushing yards 20.4 -- Rushing TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Receiving yards 60.2 24-97 Receptions 4.2 2-6 Receiving TDs 0.98 62% 1+, 26% 2+ Makai Cope WR Receiving yards 36.1 0-54 Receptions 2.3 0-3 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Jeron Askren TE Receiving yards 31.0 7-62 Receptions 2.6 1-4 Receiving TDs 0.39 32% 1+, 6% 2+ Ramone Green Jr. RB Rushing yards 28.3 -- Carries 6.0 0-8 Rushing TDs 0.06 6% 1+ Receiving yards 22.5 3-46 Receptions 2.7 2-4 Receiving TDs 0.13 12% 1+ Connor Lair RB Rushing yards 14.7 -- Carries 6.8 2-9 Rushing TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Receiving yards 16.8 -- Receptions 2.1 1-3 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Dillon Hipp TE Receiving yards 15.4 -- Receptions 1.9 0-2 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Jared Lloyd LB Tackles 6.8 4-11 Dylan Dixson S Tackles 4.4 2-6 Caden Wiest DE Sacks 0.29 25% 1+ Malachi Madison DL Sacks 0.20 18% 1+ ============================================================ GAME CONTEXT ============================================================ SMU recent form: 4-1 over last 5 games Missouri State recent form: 1-4 over last 5 games Head-to-head history: Season Away Home Winner ------ ------ ------- ------ 2025 SMU 28 MOST 10 SMU ------------------------------------------------------------ Generated by spreadsim.com's model. See spreadsim.com/methodology for how these numbers are computed. spreadsim.com/games/10295