UConn at Miami (OH) NCAA, Week 4, 2026 regular season Kickoff: September 26, 2026 at 4:00 AM UTC Status: scheduled ============================================================ WHAT TO EXPECT ============================================================ spreadsim's model favors UConn by 2.5 points, giving them a 56% chance to win outright. It projects a total of 57.7 combined points, with Miami (OH) at 27.5 and UConn at 30.0. Simulating the game 10,000 times, Miami (OH)'s margin lands between -24.3 and +19.5 points 80% of the time -- a real range, not a single guessed score. ============================================================ THE PREDICTION IN DETAIL ============================================================ Spread: Miami (OH) +2.5 / UConn -2.5 Moneyline: Miami (OH) +127 / UConn -127 Win probability: Miami (OH) 44.1% / UConn 55.9% Projected total: 57.7 points Last recalculated: September 8, 2026 at 6:02 AM UTC This comes from each team's Elo rating -- Miami (OH): 1451.3, UConn: 1537.7 -- plus a +65.0-point home-field edge, adjusted by these real per-team factors (16.2 Elo points per spread point): Adjustment factor Miami (OH) UConn ----------------- ---------- ----- elevation +0.0 +0.0 injury_hazard +0.0 +0.0 roster_talent -29.8 -14.3 travel_fatigue +3.2 +0.0 coaching_change +9.5 -33.5 ncaa_efficiency -20.0 +20.0 blowout_hangover -20.0 +0.0 home_field_vector +9.7 -- consecutive_road -- +0.0 ============================================================ HOW THIS COMPARES TO THE MARKET ============================================================ No market line available for this game yet. ============================================================ RANGE OF LIKELY OUTCOMES ============================================================ Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations. Projected score: UConn 30.0 -- Miami (OH) 27.5 Percentile 10th 25th 50th 75th 90th ----------------- ----- ----- ---- ---- ----- Miami (OH) margin -24.3 -14.1 -2.5 +8.9 +19.5 Total points 35.9 46.4 57.5 69.0 78.7 ============================================================ PLAYER PROPS: WHAT TO EXPECT ============================================================ Individual player projections, with each stat's real 68% likely range or touchdown probability: MIAMI (OH) Player Pos Stat Proj. 68% range / TD odds ---------------------- --- --------------- ----- ------------------- Thomas Gotkowski QB Passing yards 198.1 113-290 Pass attempts 23.6 15-27 Completions 12.8 6-17 Passing TDs 1.02 64% 1+, 27% 2+ Rushing yards 29.0 -- Rushing TDs 0.26 23% 1+ Lazaro Rogers RB Rushing yards 52.7 12-99 Carries 8.0 2-12 Rushing TDs 0.16 15% 1+ D'Shawntae Jones RB Rushing yards 42.0 1-65 Carries 7.0 2-9 Rushing TDs 0.64 47% 1+, 14% 2+ Braylon Isom WR Receiving yards 30.4 -- Receptions 1.9 -- Receiving TDs 0.37 31% 1+, 5% 2+ Lynel Billups-Williams WR Receiving yards 27.7 -- Receptions 2.9 1-4 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Christian Ross TE Receiving yards 27.7 4-52 Receptions 2.1 0-3 Receiving TDs 0.11 10% 1+ Keith Reynolds WR Rushing yards 23.2 -- Rushing TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Receiving yards 23.9 -- Receptions 2.0 -- Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ CJ Young LB Tackles 8.5 6-11 Blayne Myrick LB Tackles 7.3 4-11 Bai Jobe DL Sacks 0.58 44% 1+, 12% 2+ James Schott DL Sacks 0.42 34% 1+, 7% 2+ UCONN Player Pos Stat Proj. 68% range / TD odds --------------- --- --------------- ----- ------------------- Kalieb Osborne QB Passing yards 124.9 40-200 Pass attempts 17.3 8-28 Completions 10.3 4-17 Passing TDs 0.66 48% 1+, 14% 2+ Rushing yards 39.2 -- Rushing TDs 0.22 20% 1+ Dashun Reeder RB Rushing yards 45.9 5-81 Carries 9.1 4-14 Rushing TDs 0.20 18% 1+ Kenji Christian RB Rushing yards 40.3 -- Carries 9.6 4-13 Rushing TDs 0.20 18% 1+ Receiving yards 18.4 -- Receptions 2.3 1-3 Receiving TDs 0.10 9% 1+ Emanuel Ross WR Receiving yards 33.7 -- Receptions 2.8 0-5 Receiving TDs 0.27 24% 1+ Ryder Treadway WR Receiving yards 33.1 -- Receptions 2.3 0-4 Receiving TDs 0.59 44% 1+, 12% 2+ Shamar Porter WR Receiving yards 31.7 -- Receptions 2.0 -- Receiving TDs 0.17 16% 1+ K'Von Sherman LB Tackles 7.2 4-10 Sacks 0.44 36% 1+, 7% 2+ Luke Murphy LB Tackles 4.5 2-7 Esean Carter DT Sacks 0.38 31% 1+, 6% 2+ ============================================================ GAME CONTEXT ============================================================ Miami (OH) recent form: 2-3 over last 5 games UConn recent form: 4-1 over last 5 games ------------------------------------------------------------ Generated by spreadsim.com's model. See spreadsim.com/methodology for how these numbers are computed. spreadsim.com/games/10296