Nebraska at Michigan State NCAA, Week 4, 2026 regular season Kickoff: September 26, 2026 at 4:00 AM UTC Status: scheduled ============================================================ WHAT TO EXPECT ============================================================ spreadsim's model favors Nebraska by 11.3 points, giving them a 74% chance to win outright. It projects a total of 45.8 combined points, with Michigan State at 17.3 and Nebraska at 28.6. Simulating the game 10,000 times, Michigan State's margin lands between -33.7 and +10.8 points 80% of the time -- a real range, not a single guessed score. ============================================================ THE PREDICTION IN DETAIL ============================================================ Spread: Michigan State +11.3 / Nebraska -11.3 Moneyline: Michigan State +287 / Nebraska -287 Win probability: Michigan State 25.9% / Nebraska 74.1% Projected total: 45.8 points Last recalculated: September 8, 2026 at 6:02 AM UTC This comes from each team's Elo rating -- Michigan State: 1439.8, Nebraska: 1552.6 -- plus a +65.0-point home-field edge, adjusted by these real per-team factors (16.2 Elo points per spread point): Adjustment factor Michigan State Nebraska ----------------- -------------- -------- elevation +0.0 +0.0 injury_hazard +0.0 +0.0 roster_talent +7.7 +68.0 travel_fatigue +4.0 +2.1 coaching_change -26.8 +9.5 ncaa_efficiency -20.0 +20.0 blowout_hangover +0.0 +0.0 home_field_vector -0.4 -- consecutive_road -- +0.0 ============================================================ HOW THIS COMPARES TO THE MARKET ============================================================ No market line available for this game yet. ============================================================ RANGE OF LIKELY OUTCOMES ============================================================ Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations. Projected score: Nebraska 28.6 -- Michigan State 17.3 Percentile 10th 25th 50th 75th 90th --------------------- ----- ----- ----- ---- ----- Michigan State margin -33.7 -23.0 -11.3 +0.4 +10.8 Total points 24.1 34.6 45.9 57.3 67.7 ============================================================ PLAYER PROPS: WHAT TO EXPECT ============================================================ Individual player projections, with each stat's real 68% likely range or touchdown probability: MICHIGAN STATE Player Pos Stat Proj. 68% range / TD odds ------------------- --- --------------- ----- ------------------- Alessio Milivojevic QB Passing yards 138.0 53-219 Pass attempts 27.0 18-42 Completions 17.3 11-28 Passing TDs 0.89 59% 1+, 22% 2+ Rushing yards 0.2 -- Rushing TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Cam Edwards RB Rushing yards 75.2 34-119 Carries 13.8 8-20 Rushing TDs 1.31 73% 1+, 38% 2+ Receiving yards 24.8 5-44 Receptions 2.8 2-4 Receiving TDs 0.15 14% 1+ Marvis Parrish RB Rushing yards 57.7 17-87 Carries 9.3 4-12 Rushing TDs 0.15 14% 1+ Receiving yards 17.4 -- Receptions 2.7 2-4 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Chrishon McCray WR Receiving yards 31.3 -- Receptions 3.6 2-6 Receiving TDs 0.18 17% 1+ KK Smith WR Receiving yards 22.4 -- Receptions 2.0 -- Receiving TDs 0.16 15% 1+ Dion Crawford LB Tackles 7.1 4-10 Sacks 0.44 36% 1+, 7% 2+ Jordan Hall LB Tackles 6.6 4-9 Eli Coenen DL Sacks 0.29 25% 1+ NEBRASKA Player Pos Stat Proj. 68% range / TD odds ----------------- --- --------------- ----- ------------------- Anthony Colandrea QB Passing yards 267.2 183-331 Pass attempts 31.4 22-41 Completions 20.0 14-27 Passing TDs 2.06 87% 1+, 61% 2+ Rushing yards 34.6 -- Rushing TDs 1.03 64% 1+, 28% 2+ Nyziah Hunter WR Receiving yards 52.8 17-100 Receptions 3.5 2-6 Receiving TDs 0.52 41% 1+, 10% 2+ Mekhi Nelson RB Rushing yards 51.9 11-94 Carries 7.8 2-12 Rushing TDs 0.49 39% 1+, 9% 2+ Receiving yards 31.8 12-74 Receptions 2.6 2-4 Receiving TDs 0.26 23% 1+ Kwazi Gilmer WR Receiving yards 46.0 10-76 Receptions 3.9 2-7 Receiving TDs 0.52 41% 1+, 10% 2+ Isaiah Mozee RB Rushing yards 35.5 -- Carries 6.1 0-8 Rushing TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Receiving yards 29.5 10-69 Receptions 2.7 2-4 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Quinn Clark WR Receiving yards 34.0 -- Receptions 1.2 1-1 Receiving TDs 0.23 21% 1+ Luke Lindenmeyer TE Receiving yards 29.1 5-47 Receptions 2.3 1-3 Receiving TDs 0.12 11% 1+ Dexter Foster LB Tackles 6.9 4-10 Owen Chambliss LB Tackles 6.1 3-10 Sacks 0.25 22% 1+ Riley Van Poppel DT Sacks 0.19 17% 1+ ============================================================ GAME CONTEXT ============================================================ Michigan State recent form: 2-3 over last 5 games Nebraska recent form: 2-3 over last 5 games Head-to-head history: Season Away Home Winner ------ ------ ------ ------ 2025 MSU 27 NEB 38 NEB 2023 NEB 17 MSU 20 MSU ------------------------------------------------------------ Generated by spreadsim.com's model. See spreadsim.com/methodology for how these numbers are computed. spreadsim.com/games/10297