Minnesota at Washington NCAA, Week 4, 2026 regular season Kickoff: September 26, 2026 at 4:00 AM UTC Status: scheduled ============================================================ WHAT TO EXPECT ============================================================ spreadsim's model favors Washington by 10.0 points, giving them a 72% chance to win outright. It projects a total of 39.6 combined points, with Washington at 25.0 and Minnesota at 14.8. Simulating the game 10,000 times, Washington's margin lands between -12.4 and +32.5 points 80% of the time -- a real range, not a single guessed score. ============================================================ THE PREDICTION IN DETAIL ============================================================ Spread: Washington -10.0 / Minnesota +10.0 Moneyline: Washington -255 / Minnesota +255 Win probability: Washington 71.8% / Minnesota 28.2% Projected total: 39.6 points Last recalculated: September 8, 2026 at 6:02 AM UTC This comes from each team's Elo rating -- Washington: 1655.2, Minnesota: 1569.3 -- plus a +65.0-point home-field edge, adjusted by these real per-team factors (16.2 Elo points per spread point): Adjustment factor Washington Minnesota ----------------- ---------- --------- elevation +0.0 +0.0 injury_hazard +0.0 +0.0 roster_talent +62.2 +41.8 travel_fatigue +4.0 +0.0 coaching_change +9.5 +11.8 ncaa_efficiency -6.6 +20.0 blowout_hangover +0.0 +0.0 home_field_vector +16.4 -- consecutive_road -- +0.0 ============================================================ HOW THIS COMPARES TO THE MARKET ============================================================ No market line available for this game yet. ============================================================ RANGE OF LIKELY OUTCOMES ============================================================ Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations. Projected score: Minnesota 14.8 -- Washington 25.0 Percentile 10th 25th 50th 75th 90th ----------------- ----- ---- ----- ----- ----- Washington margin -12.4 -1.7 +10.2 +22.1 +32.5 Total points 18.8 28.8 39.9 51.0 60.9 ============================================================ PLAYER PROPS: WHAT TO EXPECT ============================================================ Individual player projections, with each stat's real 68% likely range or touchdown probability: WASHINGTON Player Pos Stat Proj. 68% range / TD odds ------------------- --- --------------- ----- ------------------- Demond Williams Jr. QB Passing yards 218.8 134-281 Pass attempts 29.1 20-35 Completions 19.0 13-23 Passing TDs 1.86 84% 1+, 56% 2+ Rushing yards 36.0 -- Rushing TDs 0.35 30% 1+ Christian Moss WR Receiving yards 58.6 23-101 Receptions 3.1 1-5 Receiving TDs 0.26 23% 1+ Jordan Washington RB Rushing yards 54.3 13-101 Carries 5.8 -- Rushing TDs 0.17 16% 1+ Jayden Limar RB Rushing yards 52.5 12-89 Carries 9.0 4-14 Rushing TDs 0.38 32% 1+, 6% 2+ Receiving yards 18.7 -- Receptions 2.2 1-3 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Dezmen Roebuck WR Receiving yards 44.2 9-78 Receptions 3.9 2-6 Receiving TDs 0.66 48% 1+, 14% 2+ Chris Lawson WR Receiving yards 38.7 3-75 Receptions 2.3 0-4 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Decker DeGraaf TE Receiving yards 37.1 13-67 Receptions 3.0 2-4 Receiving TDs 0.18 16% 1+ Alex McLaughlin S Tackles 6.9 4-10 Xe'ree Alexander LB Tackles 6.5 4-10 Jacob Manu LB Sacks 0.17 15% 1+ Taariq Al-Uqdah LB Sacks 0.17 15% 1+ MINNESOTA Player Pos Stat Proj. 68% range / TD odds ------------------- --- --------------- ----- ------------------- Drake Lindsey QB Passing yards 166.2 82-225 Pass attempts 30.4 22-39 Completions 19.1 13-22 Passing TDs 1.23 71% 1+, 35% 2+ Rushing yards -5.1 -- Rushing TDs 0.33 28% 1+ Zion Steptoe WR Rushing yards 22.2 -- Rushing TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Receiving yards 41.4 6-68 Receptions 3.2 1-5 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Darius Taylor RB Rushing yards 40.6 -- Carries 12.1 6-21 Rushing TDs 0.25 22% 1+ Receiving yards 17.6 -- Receptions 3.4 2-5 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Javon Tracy WR Receiving yards 36.3 1-68 Receptions 3.4 2-5 Receiving TDs 0.40 33% 1+, 6% 2+ Noah Jennings WR Receiving yards 33.9 -- Receptions 2.3 0-3 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Kaden Helms TE Receiving yards 12.8 -- Receptions 1.2 1-1 Receiving TDs 0.19 17% 1+ Maverick Baranowski LB Tackles 8.2 6-12 Andrew Marshall LB Tackles 6.8 4-9 Anthony Smith DL Sacks 1.00 63% 1+, 26% 2+ Karter Menz DL Sacks 0.81 56% 1+, 20% 2+ ============================================================ GAME CONTEXT ============================================================ Washington recent form: 4-1 over last 5 games Minnesota recent form: 3-2 over last 5 games ------------------------------------------------------------ Generated by spreadsim.com's model. See spreadsim.com/methodology for how these numbers are computed. spreadsim.com/games/10298