Houston at Georgia Southern NCAA, Week 4, 2026 regular season Kickoff: September 26, 2026 at 4:00 AM UTC Status: scheduled ============================================================ WHAT TO EXPECT ============================================================ spreadsim's model favors Georgia Southern by 0.9 points, giving them a 52% chance to win outright. It projects a total of 62.4 combined points, with Georgia Southern at 31.6 and Houston at 30.8. Simulating the game 10,000 times, Georgia Southern's margin lands between -21.3 and +23.0 points 80% of the time -- a real range, not a single guessed score. ============================================================ THE PREDICTION IN DETAIL ============================================================ Spread: Georgia Southern -0.9 / Houston +0.9 Moneyline: Georgia Southern -109 / Houston +109 Win probability: Georgia Southern 52.2% / Houston 47.8% Projected total: 62.4 points Last recalculated: September 8, 2026 at 6:02 AM UTC This comes from each team's Elo rating -- Georgia Southern: 1504.1, Houston: 1551.7 -- plus a +65.0-point home-field edge, adjusted by these real per-team factors (16.2 Elo points per spread point): Adjustment factor Georgia Southern Houston ----------------- ---------------- ------- elevation +0.0 +0.0 injury_hazard +0.0 +0.0 roster_talent -27.8 +14.1 travel_fatigue +0.0 +1.5 coaching_change +11.8 +9.5 ncaa_efficiency +20.0 -4.2 blowout_hangover +0.0 +0.0 home_field_vector +14.9 -- consecutive_road -- +0.0 ============================================================ HOW THIS COMPARES TO THE MARKET ============================================================ No market line available for this game yet. ============================================================ RANGE OF LIKELY OUTCOMES ============================================================ Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations. Projected score: Houston 30.8 -- Georgia Southern 31.6 Percentile 10th 25th 50th 75th 90th ----------------------- ----- ----- ---- ----- ----- Georgia Southern margin -21.3 -11.0 +0.9 +12.6 +23.0 Total points 41.0 51.1 62.7 73.7 83.7 ============================================================ PLAYER PROPS: WHAT TO EXPECT ============================================================ Individual player projections, with each stat's real 68% likely range or touchdown probability: GEORGIA SOUTHERN Player Pos Stat Proj. 68% range / TD odds --------------- --- --------------- ----- ------------------- Max Johnson QB Passing yards 188.6 104-285 Pass attempts 26.6 18-42 Completions 16.4 10-26 Passing TDs 0.47 38% 1+, 8% 2+ Ashton Hollins WR Receiving yards 40.7 5-59 Receptions 2.0 -- Receiving TDs 0.23 21% 1+ Taeo Todd RB Rushing yards 37.1 -- Carries 9.0 4-15 Rushing TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Receiving yards 18.2 -- Receptions 2.9 2-5 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ David Mbadinga RB Rushing yards 32.2 -- Carries 9.0 4-12 Rushing TDs 0.17 15% 1+ Receiving yards 10.1 -- Receptions 1.4 2-2 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Taylor Bradshaw WR Receiving yards 18.6 -- Receptions 2.2 -- Receiving TDs 0.09 8% 1+ Alex Taylor WR Receiving yards 15.5 -- Receptions 1.3 2-2 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Anthony Bynum LB Tackles 5.7 3-8 Sacks 0.31 27% 1+ Brandon Tyson LB Tackles 5.7 3-8 MJ Stroud LB Sacks 0.50 39% 1+, 9% 2+ HOUSTON Player Pos Stat Proj. 68% range / TD odds ---------------- --- --------------- ----- ------------------- Conner Weigman QB Passing yards 217.4 133-276 Pass attempts 29.7 21-35 Completions 19.7 14-25 Passing TDs 1.87 85% 1+, 56% 2+ Rushing yards 55.8 16-109 Rushing TDs 0.73 52% 1+, 16% 2+ Amare Thomas WR Rushing yards 6.6 -- Rushing TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Receiving yards 81.3 46-120 Receptions 5.5 4-8 Receiving TDs 1.24 71% 1+, 35% 2+ Makhi Hughes RB Rushing yards 68.8 28-127 Carries 10.5 5-18 Rushing TDs 0.37 31% 1+, 5% 2+ Trent Walker WR Receiving yards 66.7 31-139 Receptions 4.7 2-8 Receiving TDs 0.23 20% 1+ Stephon Johnson WR Receiving yards 59.4 24-110 Receptions 3.1 1-5 Receiving TDs 0.36 30% 1+, 5% 2+ DJ Butler RB Rushing yards 53.5 13-82 Carries 8.9 4-13 Rushing TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Receiving yards 15.6 -- Receptions 2.0 0-2 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Patrick Overmyer TE Receiving yards 34.3 11-57 Receptions 3.1 2-5 Receiving TDs 0.61 46% 1+, 12% 2+ Myles Rowser DB Tackles 5.9 4-8 Kentrell Webb DB Tackles 5.7 4-9 Brandon Mack II LB Sacks 0.38 31% 1+, 6% 2+ Javion White DB Sacks 0.25 22% 1+ ============================================================ GAME CONTEXT ============================================================ Georgia Southern recent form: 4-1 over last 5 games Houston recent form: 4-1 over last 5 games ------------------------------------------------------------ Generated by spreadsim.com's model. See spreadsim.com/methodology for how these numbers are computed. spreadsim.com/games/10299