Florida Atlantic at UL Monroe NCAA, Week 4, 2026 regular season Kickoff: September 26, 2026 at 4:00 AM UTC Status: scheduled ============================================================ WHAT TO EXPECT ============================================================ spreadsim's model favors Florida Atlantic by 2.5 points, giving them a 56% chance to win outright. It projects a total of 63.4 combined points, with UL Monroe at 30.4 and Florida Atlantic at 33.2. Simulating the game 10,000 times, UL Monroe's margin lands between -25.5 and +19.4 points 80% of the time -- a real range, not a single guessed score. ============================================================ THE PREDICTION IN DETAIL ============================================================ Spread: UL Monroe +2.5 / Florida Atlantic -2.5 Moneyline: UL Monroe +126 / Florida Atlantic -126 Win probability: UL Monroe 44.3% / Florida Atlantic 55.7% Projected total: 63.4 points Last recalculated: September 8, 2026 at 6:02 AM UTC This comes from each team's Elo rating -- UL Monroe: 1255.6, Florida Atlantic: 1325.0 -- plus a +65.0-point home-field edge, adjusted by these real per-team factors (16.2 Elo points per spread point): Adjustment factor UL Monroe Florida Atlantic ----------------- --------- ---------------- elevation +0.0 +0.0 injury_hazard +0.0 +0.0 roster_talent -98.0 -46.3 travel_fatigue +3.4 +2.2 coaching_change +9.5 +9.5 ncaa_efficiency -20.0 -20.0 blowout_hangover -20.0 -20.0 home_field_vector +15.0 -- consecutive_road -- +0.0 ============================================================ HOW THIS COMPARES TO THE MARKET ============================================================ No market line available for this game yet. ============================================================ RANGE OF LIKELY OUTCOMES ============================================================ Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations. Projected score: Florida Atlantic 33.2 -- UL Monroe 30.4 Percentile 10th 25th 50th 75th 90th ---------------- ----- ----- ---- ---- ----- UL Monroe margin -25.5 -14.6 -2.7 +9.2 +19.4 Total points 42.5 52.6 63.6 74.6 84.8 ============================================================ PLAYER PROPS: WHAT TO EXPECT ============================================================ Individual player projections, with each stat's real 68% likely range or touchdown probability: UL MONROE Player Pos Stat Proj. 68% range / TD odds ------------------- --- --------------- ----- ------------------- Aidan Armenta QB Passing yards 202.2 118-294 Pass attempts 25.5 17-32 Completions 15.3 9-20 Passing TDs 1.03 64% 1+, 28% 2+ Rushing yards 5.2 -- Rushing TDs 0.15 14% 1+ Nic Trujillo WR Receiving yards 51.9 16-94 Receptions 3.5 2-5 Receiving TDs 0.66 48% 1+, 14% 2+ JP Coulter WR Receiving yards 30.1 -- Receptions 2.3 -- Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Bryce Anderson TE Receiving yards 25.2 2-35 Receptions 2.2 1-3 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Brandon Buckhaulter WR Receiving yards 21.7 -- Receptions 2.0 -- Receiving TDs 0.29 25% 1+ Noah Flemmings LB Tackles 7.0 4-10 Sacks 0.31 27% 1+ Jabari Tiller DB Tackles 5.2 3-8 Sacks 0.31 27% 1+ FLORIDA ATLANTIC Player Pos Stat Proj. 68% range / TD odds -------------------- --- --------------- ----- ------------------- Caden Veltkamp QB Passing yards 287.0 202-391 Pass attempts 37.7 29-50 Completions 24.8 18-34 Passing TDs 1.97 86% 1+, 58% 2+ Rushing yards 4.8 -- Rushing TDs 0.42 34% 1+, 7% 2+ Easton Messer WR Receiving yards 80.2 44-120 Receptions 6.4 4-9 Receiving TDs 0.79 54% 1+, 19% 2+ Dominique Henry WR Receiving yards 63.1 27-115 Receptions 4.2 2-6 Receiving TDs 0.31 27% 1+ Kelby Valsin WR Receiving yards 51.1 15-114 Receptions 3.9 2-10 Receiving TDs 0.42 34% 1+, 7% 2+ Kaden Shields-Dutton RB Rushing yards 49.4 8-86 Carries 9.9 4-15 Rushing TDs 0.64 47% 1+, 14% 2+ Receiving yards 16.7 -- Receptions 2.6 2-4 Receiving TDs 0.13 12% 1+ Ethan Ervin RB Rushing yards 37.5 -- Carries 9.9 4-18 Rushing TDs 0.26 22% 1+ Brooks Johnson TE Receiving yards 14.1 -- Receptions 2.3 1-3 Receiving TDs 0.15 14% 1+ Leon Hart Jr. LB Tackles 7.9 5-11 Jayden Sweeney S Tackles 5.1 2-7 Jay Crable DB Sacks 0.62 46% 1+, 13% 2+ Josh Roberts DB Sacks 0.38 31% 1+, 6% 2+ ============================================================ GAME CONTEXT ============================================================ UL Monroe recent form: 0-5 over last 5 games Florida Atlantic recent form: 1-4 over last 5 games ------------------------------------------------------------ Generated by spreadsim.com's model. See spreadsim.com/methodology for how these numbers are computed. spreadsim.com/games/10300