UCLA at Maryland NCAA, Week 4, 2026 regular season Kickoff: September 26, 2026 at 4:00 AM UTC Status: scheduled ============================================================ WHAT TO EXPECT ============================================================ spreadsim's model favors UCLA by 0.4 points, giving them a 51% chance to win outright. It projects a total of 50.9 combined points, with Maryland at 25.4 and UCLA at 25.6. Simulating the game 10,000 times, Maryland's margin lands between -22.3 and +22.2 points 80% of the time -- a real range, not a single guessed score. ============================================================ THE PREDICTION IN DETAIL ============================================================ Spread: Maryland +0.4 / UCLA -0.4 Moneyline: Maryland +104 / UCLA -104 Win probability: Maryland 49.1% / UCLA 50.9% Projected total: 50.9 points Last recalculated: September 8, 2026 at 6:02 AM UTC This comes from each team's Elo rating -- Maryland: 1388.3, UCLA: 1483.8 -- plus a +65.0-point home-field edge, adjusted by these real per-team factors (16.2 Elo points per spread point): Adjustment factor Maryland UCLA ----------------- -------- ----- elevation +0.0 +0.0 injury_hazard +0.0 +0.0 roster_talent +35.1 +60.3 travel_fatigue +0.0 -3.3 coaching_change +11.8 -26.8 ncaa_efficiency +20.0 +16.3 blowout_hangover +0.0 +0.0 home_field_vector +4.0 -- consecutive_road -- +0.0 ============================================================ HOW THIS COMPARES TO THE MARKET ============================================================ No market line available for this game yet. ============================================================ RANGE OF LIKELY OUTCOMES ============================================================ Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations. Projected score: UCLA 25.6 -- Maryland 25.4 Percentile 10th 25th 50th 75th 90th --------------- ----- ----- ---- ----- ----- Maryland margin -22.3 -11.7 -0.4 +11.4 +22.2 Total points 29.3 39.5 51.1 62.3 72.4 ============================================================ PLAYER PROPS: WHAT TO EXPECT ============================================================ Individual player projections, with each stat's real 68% likely range or touchdown probability: MARYLAND Player Pos Stat Proj. 68% range / TD odds --------------------------- --- --------------- ----- ------------------- Malik Washington QB Passing yards 195.4 111-285 Pass attempts 37.5 29-49 Completions 22.0 16-30 Passing TDs 1.29 72% 1+, 37% 2+ Rushing yards 29.8 -- Rushing TDs 0.29 25% 1+ DeJuan Williams RB Rushing yards 62.7 22-87 Carries 10.6 5-14 Rushing TDs 0.38 32% 1+, 6% 2+ Receiving yards 42.2 23-86 Receptions 3.6 2-6 Receiving TDs 0.19 17% 1+ Harry Dalton III RB Rushing yards 42.4 2-62 Carries 5.2 -- Rushing TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Na'eem Abdul-Rahim Gladding WR Receiving yards 37.8 2-65 Receptions 3.7 2-6 Receiving TDs 0.14 13% 1+ Chris Durr Jr. WR Receiving yards 29.5 -- Receptions 4.1 2-6 Receiving TDs 0.28 24% 1+ Kaleb Webb WR Receiving yards 28.5 -- Receptions 2.8 1-5 Receiving TDs 0.14 13% 1+ Dorian Fleming TE Receiving yards 27.9 4-44 Receptions 3.3 2-6 Receiving TDs 0.16 15% 1+ Preston Howard TE Receiving yards 17.6 -- Receptions 2.2 1-4 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Daniel Wingate LB Tackles 7.6 4-10 Lavain Scruggs DB Tackles 6.1 4-9 Zahir Mathis DL Sacks 0.62 46% 1+, 13% 2+ Sidney Stewart DL Sacks 0.38 31% 1+, 6% 2+ UCLA Player Pos Stat Proj. 68% range / TD odds --------------- --- --------------- ----- ------------------- Nico Iamaleava QB Passing yards 171.9 87-224 Pass attempts 28.1 20-34 Completions 17.9 12-23 Passing TDs 1.32 73% 1+, 38% 2+ Rushing yards 36.9 -- Rushing TDs 0.59 44% 1+, 12% 2+ Wayne Knight RB Rushing yards 96.9 56-164 Carries 13.4 8-18 Rushing TDs 0.86 58% 1+, 21% 2+ Receiving yards 37.1 18-72 Receptions 3.1 2-5 Receiving TDs 0.12 12% 1+ Anthony Woods RB Rushing yards 60.3 19-112 Carries 8.3 2-12 Rushing TDs 0.24 22% 1+ Receiving yards 26.5 7-48 Receptions 2.8 2-5 Receiving TDs 0.12 12% 1+ Leland Smith WR Receiving yards 59.7 24-116 Receptions 4.0 2-7 Receiving TDs 0.37 31% 1+, 5% 2+ Landon Ellis WR Receiving yards 55.4 20-97 Receptions 3.3 2-5 Receiving TDs 0.55 42% 1+, 11% 2+ Mikey Matthews WR Receiving yards 41.6 6-65 Receptions 3.4 2-5 Receiving TDs 0.37 31% 1+, 5% 2+ Josh Phifer TE Receiving yards 15.3 -- Receptions 1.3 2-2 Receiving TDs 0.23 20% 1+ Brayden Loftin TE Receiving yards 12.2 -- Receptions 1.2 1-1 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Trent Hendrick LB Tackles 6.7 4-10 Drew Spinogatti LB Tackles 5.8 3-11 Sahir West DL Sacks 0.50 39% 1+, 9% 2+ Aiden Gobaira DL Sacks 0.31 27% 1+ ============================================================ GAME CONTEXT ============================================================ Maryland recent form: 0-5 over last 5 games UCLA recent form: 1-4 over last 5 games Head-to-head history: Season Away Home Winner ------ ----- ------- ------ 2025 MD 17 UCLA 20 UCLA ------------------------------------------------------------ Generated by spreadsim.com's model. See spreadsim.com/methodology for how these numbers are computed. spreadsim.com/games/10301