Utah at Iowa State NCAA, Week 4, 2026 regular season Kickoff: September 26, 2026 at 4:00 AM UTC Status: scheduled ============================================================ WHAT TO EXPECT ============================================================ spreadsim's model favors Utah by 4.5 points, giving them a 60% chance to win outright. It projects a total of 59.6 combined points, with Iowa State at 27.4 and Utah at 32.1. Simulating the game 10,000 times, Iowa State's margin lands between -27.1 and +17.3 points 80% of the time -- a real range, not a single guessed score. ============================================================ THE PREDICTION IN DETAIL ============================================================ Spread: Iowa State +4.5 / Utah -4.5 Moneyline: Iowa State +152 / Utah -152 Win probability: Iowa State 39.7% / Utah 60.3% Projected total: 59.6 points Last recalculated: September 8, 2026 at 6:01 AM UTC This comes from each team's Elo rating -- Iowa State: 1577.0, Utah: 1697.2 -- plus a +65.0-point home-field edge, adjusted by these real per-team factors (16.2 Elo points per spread point): Adjustment factor Iowa State Utah ----------------- ---------- ----- elevation +0.0 +0.0 injury_hazard +0.0 +0.0 roster_talent -1.8 +17.5 travel_fatigue +0.0 +0.0 coaching_change -33.5 -33.5 ncaa_efficiency +18.6 +20.0 blowout_hangover +0.0 +0.0 home_field_vector +3.5 -- consecutive_road -- +0.0 ============================================================ HOW THIS COMPARES TO THE MARKET ============================================================ No market line available for this game yet. ============================================================ RANGE OF LIKELY OUTCOMES ============================================================ Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations. Projected score: Utah 32.1 -- Iowa State 27.4 Percentile 10th 25th 50th 75th 90th ----------------- ----- ----- ---- ---- ----- Iowa State margin -27.1 -16.6 -4.7 +7.2 +17.3 Total points 38.1 48.4 59.7 70.6 80.8 ============================================================ PLAYER PROPS: WHAT TO EXPECT ============================================================ Individual player projections, with each stat's real 68% likely range or touchdown probability: IOWA STATE Player Pos Stat Proj. 68% range / TD odds ------------------ --- --------------- ----- ------------------- Jaylen Raynor QB Passing yards 198.8 114-243 Pass attempts 36.5 28-44 Completions 23.8 18-30 Passing TDs 1.31 73% 1+, 38% 2+ Rushing yards 29.0 -- Rushing TDs 0.50 40% 1+, 9% 2+ Cameron Pettaway RB Rushing yards 54.8 14-89 Carries 9.5 4-13 Rushing TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Receiving yards 28.2 9-98 Receptions 2.5 1-4 Receiving TDs 0.46 37% 1+, 8% 2+ Arnold Barnes III RB Rushing yards 37.6 -- Carries 7.6 2-12 Rushing TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Tyler Fortenberry TE Receiving yards 36.7 13-64 Receptions 3.1 2-5 Receiving TDs 0.29 25% 1+ Omari Hayes WR Receiving yards 36.3 1-57 Receptions 2.9 1-4 Receiving TDs 0.11 11% 1+ Carter Pabst WR Receiving yards 35.0 -- Receptions 2.0 -- Receiving TDs 0.15 14% 1+ Dominic Overby WR Receiving yards 27.4 -- Receptions 2.4 0-4 Receiving TDs 0.45 36% 1+, 8% 2+ Sullivan Schlimgen LB Tackles 5.4 2-8 Malcolm Jones LB Tackles 4.8 2-8 Isaac Terrell DE Sacks 0.88 58% 1+, 22% 2+ Max Baloun DT Sacks 0.33 28% 1+ UTAH Player Pos Stat Proj. 68% range / TD odds ----------------- --- --------------- ----- ------------------- Devon Dampier QB Passing yards 218.1 134-304 Pass attempts 27.2 18-37 Completions 16.3 10-22 Passing TDs 1.86 84% 1+, 56% 2+ Rushing yards 62.0 22-109 Rushing TDs 0.99 63% 1+, 26% 2+ Braden Pegan WR Rushing yards 12.5 -- Rushing TDs 0.31 27% 1+ Receiving yards 79.8 44-113 Receptions 4.8 3-7 Receiving TDs 0.23 21% 1+ Kyri Shoels WR Receiving yards 66.2 31-113 Receptions 4.3 2-6 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Wayshawn Parker RB Rushing yards 55.1 14-90 Carries 12.4 7-16 Rushing TDs 0.28 25% 1+ Receiving yards 15.6 -- Receptions 2.1 1-3 Receiving TDs 0.19 17% 1+ Larry Simmons WR Receiving yards 49.4 14-87 Receptions 2.5 0-4 Receiving TDs 0.80 55% 1+, 19% 2+ Steve Chavez-Soto RB Rushing yards 44.1 3-63 Carries 11.0 6-13 Rushing TDs 0.67 49% 1+, 14% 2+ Jackson Bennee S Tackles 5.5 3-9 Johnathan Hall LB Tackles 5.3 2-8 Elijah Elliss LB Sacks 0.33 28% 1+ Ethan Day DE Sacks 0.31 27% 1+ ============================================================ GAME CONTEXT ============================================================ Iowa State recent form: 3-2 over last 5 games Utah recent form: 5-0 over last 5 games Head-to-head history: Season Away Home Winner ------ ------ ------- ------ 2024 ISU 31 UTAH 28 ISU ------------------------------------------------------------ Generated by spreadsim.com's model. See spreadsim.com/methodology for how these numbers are computed. spreadsim.com/games/10302