Colorado at Baylor NCAA, Week 4, 2026 regular season Kickoff: September 26, 2026 at 4:00 AM UTC Status: scheduled ============================================================ WHAT TO EXPECT ============================================================ spreadsim's model favors Baylor by 6.2 points, giving them a 64% chance to win outright. It projects a total of 54.1 combined points, with Baylor at 30.2 and Colorado at 23.8. Simulating the game 10,000 times, Baylor's margin lands between -15.9 and +29.0 points 80% of the time -- a real range, not a single guessed score. ============================================================ THE PREDICTION IN DETAIL ============================================================ Spread: Baylor -6.2 / Colorado +6.2 Moneyline: Baylor -178 / Colorado +178 Win probability: Baylor 64.0% / Colorado 36.0% Projected total: 54.1 points Last recalculated: September 8, 2026 at 6:01 AM UTC This comes from each team's Elo rating -- Baylor: 1448.0, Colorado: 1416.8 -- plus a +65.0-point home-field edge, adjusted by these real per-team factors (16.2 Elo points per spread point): Adjustment factor Baylor Colorado ----------------- ------ -------- elevation +0.0 +0.0 injury_hazard +0.0 +0.0 roster_talent +30.2 +35.1 travel_fatigue +1.9 +1.7 coaching_change +9.5 +9.5 ncaa_efficiency -17.6 -20.0 blowout_hangover +0.0 +0.0 home_field_vector +6.3 -- consecutive_road -- +0.0 ============================================================ HOW THIS COMPARES TO THE MARKET ============================================================ No market line available for this game yet. ============================================================ RANGE OF LIKELY OUTCOMES ============================================================ Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations. Projected score: Colorado 23.8 -- Baylor 30.2 Percentile 10th 25th 50th 75th 90th ------------- ----- ---- ---- ----- ----- Baylor margin -15.9 -5.4 +6.4 +18.2 +29.0 Total points 32.7 42.9 54.0 65.1 75.2 ============================================================ PLAYER PROPS: WHAT TO EXPECT ============================================================ Individual player projections, with each stat's real 68% likely range or touchdown probability: BAYLOR Player Pos Stat Proj. 68% range / TD odds -------------------- --- --------------- ----- ------------------- DJ Lagway QB Passing yards 192.9 108-276 Pass attempts 29.9 21-43 Completions 17.5 12-23 Passing TDs 1.35 74% 1+, 39% 2+ Rushing yards 15.8 -- Rushing TDs 0.12 12% 1+ Caden Knighten RB Rushing yards 55.5 15-103 Carries 10.9 6-17 Rushing TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Receiving yards 19.8 0-34 Receptions 1.6 0-2 Receiving TDs 0.12 11% 1+ Michael Turner RB Rushing yards 55.2 14-92 Carries 10.2 4-15 Rushing TDs 0.13 12% 1+ Receiving yards 16.9 -- Receptions 2.5 1-4 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Gavin Freeman WR Rushing yards 10.1 -- Rushing TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Receiving yards 53.6 18-93 Receptions 5.2 3-8 Receiving TDs 0.50 40% 1+, 9% 2+ Louis Brown IV WR Receiving yards 39.7 4-65 Receptions 3.4 2-6 Receiving TDs 0.34 28% 1+ Jadon Porter WR Receiving yards 32.5 -- Receptions 2.9 1-5 Receiving TDs 0.17 16% 1+ Matthew Klopfenstein TE Receiving yards 21.0 -- Receptions 2.4 1-4 Receiving TDs 0.10 9% 1+ Tony Livingston TE Receiving yards 19.4 -- Receptions 1.7 -- Receiving TDs 0.07 7% 1+ Kedrick Walker LB Tackles 6.1 3-10 Jacob Redding S Tackles 5.2 3-7 Ryan Davis DE Sacks 0.57 44% 1+, 11% 2+ Garrick Ponder DE Sacks 0.44 36% 1+, 7% 2+ COLORADO Player Pos Stat Proj. 68% range / TD odds ------------------- --- --------------- ----- ------------------- Julian Lewis QB Passing yards 175.8 91-288 Pass attempts 27.3 18-42 Completions 15.9 10-25 Passing TDs 0.91 60% 1+, 23% 2+ Rushing yards 2.0 -- Rushing TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Danny Scudero WR Receiving yards 71.9 36-161 Receptions 5.4 4-9 Receiving TDs 0.80 55% 1+, 19% 2+ Kam Perry WR Receiving yards 62.0 26-104 Receptions 3.5 2-6 Receiving TDs 0.40 33% 1+, 6% 2+ Joseph Williams WR Receiving yards 54.9 19-97 Receptions 3.9 2-7 Receiving TDs 0.40 33% 1+, 6% 2+ Micah Welch RB Rushing yards 42.5 2-66 Carries 9.8 4-14 Rushing TDs 0.83 56% 1+, 20% 2+ Receiving yards 12.0 -- Receptions 2.0 1-3 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ DeKalon Taylor RB Rushing yards 40.0 -- Carries 8.2 2-12 Rushing TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Receiving yards 28.1 9-44 Receptions 3.0 2-4 Receiving TDs 0.83 56% 1+, 20% 2+ Zach Atkins TE Receiving yards 21.6 -- Receptions 2.6 1-4 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Gideon ESPN Lampron LB Tackles 9.5 6-12 Naeten Mitchell DB Tackles 6.6 4-8 Santana Hopper DL Sacks 0.44 36% 1+, 7% 2+ Vili Taufatofua DL Sacks 0.38 31% 1+, 6% 2+ ============================================================ GAME CONTEXT ============================================================ Baylor recent form: 1-4 over last 5 games Colorado recent form: 1-4 over last 5 games Head-to-head history: Season Away Home Winner ------ ------ ------- ------ 2024 BAY 31 COLO 38 COLO ------------------------------------------------------------ Generated by spreadsim.com's model. See spreadsim.com/methodology for how these numbers are computed. spreadsim.com/games/10303