Sam Houston at Texas Tech NCAA, Week 4, 2026 regular season Kickoff: September 26, 2026 at 4:00 AM UTC Status: scheduled ============================================================ WHAT TO EXPECT ============================================================ spreadsim's model favors Texas Tech by 41.9 points, giving them a 98% chance to win outright. It projects a total of 51.9 combined points, with Texas Tech at 47.1 and Sam Houston at 5.1. Simulating the game 10,000 times, Texas Tech's margin lands between +19.7 and +64.4 points 80% of the time -- a real range, not a single guessed score. ============================================================ THE PREDICTION IN DETAIL ============================================================ Spread: Texas Tech -41.9 / Sam Houston +41.9 Moneyline: Texas Tech -5050 / Sam Houston +5050 Win probability: Texas Tech 98.1% / Sam Houston 1.9% Projected total: 51.9 points Last recalculated: September 8, 2026 at 6:02 AM UTC This comes from each team's Elo rating -- Texas Tech: 1708.8, Sam Houston: 1288.4 -- plus a +65.0-point home-field edge, adjusted by these real per-team factors (16.2 Elo points per spread point): Adjustment factor Texas Tech Sam Houston ----------------- ---------- ----------- elevation +0.0 +0.0 injury_hazard +0.0 +0.0 roster_talent +70.6 -69.2 travel_fatigue +0.0 +1.2 coaching_change +11.8 +9.5 ncaa_efficiency +20.0 -19.6 blowout_hangover +0.0 +0.0 home_field_vector +15.4 -- consecutive_road -- +0.0 ============================================================ HOW THIS COMPARES TO THE MARKET ============================================================ No market line available for this game yet. ============================================================ RANGE OF LIKELY OUTCOMES ============================================================ Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations. Projected score: Sam Houston 5.1 -- Texas Tech 47.1 Percentile 10th 25th 50th 75th 90th ----------------- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- Texas Tech margin +19.7 +30.2 +42.2 +53.7 +64.4 Total points 30.8 41.0 52.4 63.5 73.5 ============================================================ PLAYER PROPS: WHAT TO EXPECT ============================================================ Individual player projections, with each stat's real 68% likely range or touchdown probability: TEXAS TECH Player Pos Stat Proj. 68% range / TD odds ------------------- --- --------------- ----- ------------------- Tommy Castellanos QB Passing yards 289.3 205-328 Pass attempts 29.8 21-40 Completions 17.3 11-22 Passing TDs 1.56 79% 1+, 46% 2+ Rushing yards 49.0 9-83 Rushing TDs 0.71 51% 1+, 16% 2+ Cameron Dickey RB Rushing yards 72.9 32-109 Carries 12.9 8-18 Rushing TDs 0.92 60% 1+, 23% 2+ Receiving yards 18.9 -- Receptions 2.4 1-4 Receiving TDs 0.15 14% 1+ J'Koby Williams RB Rushing yards 70.5 30-120 Carries 11.1 6-17 Rushing TDs 0.30 26% 1+ Receiving yards 25.4 6-50 Receptions 2.8 2-4 Receiving TDs 0.15 14% 1+ Kenny Johnson WR Receiving yards 66.2 30-113 Receptions 4.2 2-7 Receiving TDs 0.53 41% 1+, 10% 2+ Donte Lee Jr. WR Receiving yards 55.6 20-87 Receptions 3.3 2-6 Receiving TDs 0.27 23% 1+ Terrance Carter Jr. TE Receiving yards 53.7 30-98 Receptions 3.8 2-7 Receiving TDs 0.14 13% 1+ Malcolm Simmons WR Rushing yards 23.8 -- Rushing TDs 0.36 30% 1+, 5% 2+ Receiving yards 47.6 12-100 Receptions 2.8 1-4 Receiving TDs 0.13 12% 1+ Jett Carpenter TE Receiving yards 43.9 20-80 Receptions 3.0 2-4 Receiving TDs 0.27 24% 1+ Ben Roberts LB Tackles 6.8 4-12 Austin Romaine LB Tackles 6.8 4-10 Trey White LB Sacks 0.75 53% 1+, 17% 2+ Jamond Mathis LB Sacks 0.62 46% 1+, 13% 2+ SAM HOUSTON Player Pos Stat Proj. 68% range / TD odds --------------- --- --------------- ----- ------------------- Landyn Locke QB Passing yards 163.5 79-278 Pass attempts 28.2 20-45 Completions 16.4 10-27 Passing TDs 0.78 54% 1+, 18% 2+ Rushing yards -0.0 -- Rushing TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Chris Reed WR Receiving yards 49.7 14-60 Receptions 3.6 2-5 Receiving TDs 0.40 33% 1+, 6% 2+ Grady O'Neill WR Receiving yards 41.2 6-72 Receptions 4.2 2-7 Receiving TDs 0.13 12% 1+ Landan Brown RB Rushing yards 32.1 -- Carries 9.6 4-13 Rushing TDs 0.34 29% 1+ Receiving yards 16.8 -- Receptions 3.6 2-6 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Alton McCaskill RB Rushing yards 29.5 -- Carries 11.2 6-14 Rushing TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Receiving yards 9.7 -- Receptions 2.4 1-3 Receiving TDs 0.12 11% 1+ Tim Burns Jr. WR Receiving yards 29.0 -- Receptions 2.3 0-4 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Max Whisner TE Receiving yards 25.8 2-45 Receptions 2.1 0-3 Receiving TDs 0.23 21% 1+ Tyler Bailey S Tackles 5.1 3-8 Dylan Frazier DT Tackles 4.7 4-9 Chauncey Chidi DE Sacks 0.38 31% 1+, 6% 2+ Dean Ford LB Sacks 0.25 22% 1+ ============================================================ GAME CONTEXT ============================================================ Texas Tech recent form: 4-1 over last 5 games Sam Houston recent form: 2-3 over last 5 games ------------------------------------------------------------ Generated by spreadsim.com's model. See spreadsim.com/methodology for how these numbers are computed. spreadsim.com/games/10304