Virginia Tech at Boston College NCAA, Week 4, 2026 regular season Kickoff: September 26, 2026 at 4:00 AM UTC Status: scheduled ============================================================ WHAT TO EXPECT ============================================================ spreadsim's model favors Virginia Tech by 1.8 points, giving them a 54% chance to win outright. It projects a total of 49.8 combined points, with Boston College at 24.0 and Virginia Tech at 25.8. Simulating the game 10,000 times, Boston College's margin lands between -24.4 and +20.7 points 80% of the time -- a real range, not a single guessed score. ============================================================ THE PREDICTION IN DETAIL ============================================================ Spread: Boston College +1.8 / Virginia Tech -1.8 Moneyline: Boston College +118 / Virginia Tech -118 Win probability: Boston College 45.9% / Virginia Tech 54.1% Projected total: 49.8 points Last recalculated: September 8, 2026 at 6:02 AM UTC This comes from each team's Elo rating -- Boston College: 1375.4, Virginia Tech: 1374.5 -- plus a +65.0-point home-field edge, adjusted by these real per-team factors (16.2 Elo points per spread point): Adjustment factor Boston College Virginia Tech ----------------- -------------- ------------- elevation +0.0 +0.0 injury_hazard +0.0 +0.0 roster_talent -7.1 +71.5 travel_fatigue +1.8 +0.0 coaching_change +9.5 -33.5 ncaa_efficiency -20.0 +20.0 blowout_hangover -20.0 +0.0 home_field_vector -0.9 -- consecutive_road -- +0.0 ============================================================ HOW THIS COMPARES TO THE MARKET ============================================================ No market line available for this game yet. ============================================================ RANGE OF LIKELY OUTCOMES ============================================================ Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations. Projected score: Virginia Tech 25.8 -- Boston College 24.0 Percentile 10th 25th 50th 75th 90th --------------------- ----- ----- ---- ----- ----- Boston College margin -24.4 -13.7 -2.0 +10.2 +20.7 Total points 28.0 38.6 49.8 61.0 71.1 ============================================================ PLAYER PROPS: WHAT TO EXPECT ============================================================ Individual player projections, with each stat's real 68% likely range or touchdown probability: BOSTON COLLEGE Player Pos Stat Proj. 68% range / TD odds ----------------- --- --------------- ----- ------------------- Evan Dickens RB Rushing yards 92.4 52-207 Carries 14.6 9-27 Rushing TDs 2.50 92% 1+, 71% 2+ Receiving yards 20.3 1-31 Receptions 1.3 2-2 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Jaedn Skeete WR Receiving yards 54.7 19-99 Receptions 3.9 2-8 Receiving TDs 0.34 29% 1+ Nolan Ray RB Rushing yards 45.4 4-82 Carries 7.1 2-10 Rushing TDs 0.17 15% 1+ Receiving yards 16.9 -- Receptions 2.5 1-4 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Javarius Green WR Receiving yards 43.9 8-75 Receptions 3.1 1-5 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Kaelan Chudzinski TE Receiving yards 34.6 11-63 Receptions 2.8 2-4 Receiving TDs 0.67 49% 1+, 14% 2+ Landon Wright WR Receiving yards 32.2 -- Receptions 1.5 -- Receiving TDs 0.34 29% 1+ Zeke Moore TE Receiving yards 9.5 -- Receptions 1.4 2-2 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ KP Price DB Tackles 7.5 6-11 Anthony Palano LB Tackles 5.9 3-10 Kemori Dixon LB Sacks 0.33 28% 1+ Justin Medlock LB Sacks 0.20 18% 1+ VIRGINIA TECH Player Pos Stat Proj. 68% range / TD odds ------------------ --- --------------- ----- ------------------- Ethan Grunkemeyer QB Passing yards 217.3 133-298 Pass attempts 24.7 16-35 Completions 16.3 10-23 Passing TDs 1.09 66% 1+, 30% 2+ Rushing yards -1.1 -- Rushing TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Marcellous Hawkins RB Rushing yards 80.5 40-142 Carries 10.8 5-17 Rushing TDs 0.14 13% 1+ Receiving yards 16.7 -- Receptions 2.4 1-4 Receiving TDs 0.19 17% 1+ Bill Davis RB Rushing yards 71.6 31-122 Carries 11.7 6-15 Rushing TDs 0.43 35% 1+, 7% 2+ Receiving yards 22.0 3-37 Receptions 2.4 1-4 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Que'Sean Brown WR Receiving yards 59.7 24-126 Receptions 4.3 2-7 Receiving TDs 0.64 47% 1+, 13% 2+ Ayden Greene WR Receiving yards 54.6 19-88 Receptions 2.9 1-4 Receiving TDs 0.32 27% 1+ Marlion Jackson WR Receiving yards 53.5 18-94 Receptions 2.9 1-5 Receiving TDs 0.32 27% 1+ Luke Reynolds TE Receiving yards 36.3 13-64 Receptions 2.9 2-5 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Ja'Ricous Hairston TE Receiving yards 25.2 2-41 Receptions 2.1 0-3 Receiving TDs 0.65 48% 1+, 14% 2+ Kaleb Spencer LB Tackles 6.6 4-9 Noah Chambers LB Tackles 5.5 2-7 Kemari Copeland DL Sacks 0.44 36% 1+, 7% 2+ Jason Abbey DL Sacks 0.25 22% 1+ ============================================================ GAME CONTEXT ============================================================ Boston College recent form: 1-4 over last 5 games Virginia Tech recent form: 1-4 over last 5 games Head-to-head history: Season Away Home Winner ------ ----- ----- ------ 2024 BC 21 VT 42 VT 2023 VT 48 BC 22 VT ------------------------------------------------------------ Generated by spreadsim.com's model. See spreadsim.com/methodology for how these numbers are computed. spreadsim.com/games/10305