Wake Forest at Louisville NCAA, Week 4, 2026 regular season Kickoff: September 26, 2026 at 4:00 AM UTC Status: scheduled ============================================================ WHAT TO EXPECT ============================================================ spreadsim's model favors Louisville by 9.1 points, giving them a 70% chance to win outright. It projects a total of 50.4 combined points, with Louisville at 30.0 and Wake Forest at 20.7. Simulating the game 10,000 times, Louisville's margin lands between -13.2 and +31.1 points 80% of the time -- a real range, not a single guessed score. ============================================================ THE PREDICTION IN DETAIL ============================================================ Spread: Louisville -9.1 / Wake Forest +9.1 Moneyline: Louisville -234 / Wake Forest +234 Win probability: Louisville 70.1% / Wake Forest 29.9% Projected total: 50.4 points Last recalculated: September 8, 2026 at 6:02 AM UTC This comes from each team's Elo rating -- Louisville: 1607.0, Wake Forest: 1543.6 -- plus a +65.0-point home-field edge, adjusted by these real per-team factors (16.2 Elo points per spread point): Adjustment factor Louisville Wake Forest ----------------- ---------- ----------- elevation +0.0 +0.0 injury_hazard +0.0 +0.0 roster_talent +40.0 +5.2 travel_fatigue +3.0 +3.0 coaching_change +9.5 +9.5 ncaa_efficiency -9.2 +20.0 blowout_hangover +0.0 +0.0 home_field_vector +13.8 -- consecutive_road -- +0.0 ============================================================ HOW THIS COMPARES TO THE MARKET ============================================================ No market line available for this game yet. ============================================================ RANGE OF LIKELY OUTCOMES ============================================================ Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations. Projected score: Wake Forest 20.7 -- Louisville 30.0 Percentile 10th 25th 50th 75th 90th ----------------- ----- ---- ---- ----- ----- Louisville margin -13.2 -2.5 +9.6 +21.0 +31.1 Total points 29.1 39.3 50.7 62.0 72.1 ============================================================ PLAYER PROPS: WHAT TO EXPECT ============================================================ Individual player projections, with each stat's real 68% likely range or touchdown probability: LOUISVILLE Player Pos Stat Proj. 68% range / TD odds ---------------- --- --------------- ----- ------------------- Lincoln Kienholz QB Passing yards 139.5 55-270 Pass attempts 21.5 13-36 Completions 13.1 7-22 Passing TDs 0.37 31% 1+, 5% 2+ Rushing yards 19.9 -- Rushing TDs 0.37 31% 1+, 5% 2+ Tre Richardson WR Rushing yards 17.0 -- Rushing TDs 0.11 10% 1+ Receiving yards 55.9 20-102 Receptions 4.1 2-6 Receiving TDs 0.56 43% 1+, 11% 2+ Isaac Brown RB Rushing yards 53.4 12-108 Carries 11.8 6-17 Rushing TDs 0.44 35% 1+, 7% 2+ Receiving yards 14.2 -- Receptions 2.8 2-4 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Keyjuan Brown RB Rushing yards 53.2 12-96 Carries 10.7 5-16 Rushing TDs 0.33 28% 1+ Receiving yards 12.4 -- Receptions 1.6 0-2 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Brody Foley TE Receiving yards 39.2 16-82 Receptions 3.4 2-6 Receiving TDs 0.85 57% 1+, 21% 2+ Lawayne McCoy WR Receiving yards 37.6 2-68 Receptions 3.1 1-5 Receiving TDs 0.24 21% 1+ Jaleel Skinner TE Receiving yards 25.3 2-43 Receptions 2.6 1-4 Receiving TDs 0.34 29% 1+ TreyShun Hurry WR Receiving yards 23.2 -- Receptions 2.5 0-4 Receiving TDs 0.08 8% 1+ Koen Entringer DB Tackles 5.9 4-9 Stanquan Clark LB Tackles 5.1 2-8 Tyler Thompson DL Sacks 0.88 58% 1+, 22% 2+ Clev Lubin DL Sacks 0.56 43% 1+, 11% 2+ WAKE FOREST Player Pos Stat Proj. 68% range / TD odds ------------------ --- --------------- ----- ------------------- Gio Lopez QB Passing yards 196.5 112-261 Pass attempts 28.7 20-37 Completions 18.6 12-23 Passing TDs 1.23 71% 1+, 35% 2+ Rushing yards 15.1 -- Rushing TDs 0.25 22% 1+ Carlos Hernandez WR Receiving yards 65.3 30-139 Receptions 4.0 2-6 Receiving TDs 0.46 37% 1+, 8% 2+ Wondame Davis Jr. WR Receiving yards 54.8 19-112 Receptions 2.7 0-4 Receiving TDs 0.46 37% 1+, 8% 2+ Kam Shanks WR Receiving yards 39.3 4-62 Receptions 3.3 1-5 Receiving TDs 0.46 37% 1+, 8% 2+ Ty Clark III RB Rushing yards 37.1 -- Carries 9.0 4-14 Rushing TDs 0.19 18% 1+ Receiving yards 17.5 -- Receptions 2.4 1-3 Receiving TDs 0.10 9% 1+ Landon Morris TE Receiving yards 35.3 12-48 Receptions 2.1 0-3 Receiving TDs 0.72 51% 1+, 16% 2+ Kamrean Johnson TE Receiving yards 27.6 4-42 Receptions 1.9 0-2 Receiving TDs 0.20 18% 1+ KD Daniels RB Rushing yards 16.7 -- Carries 5.3 -- Rushing TDs 0.10 9% 1+ Davaughn Patterson DB Tackles 5.4 3-8 Langston Hardy DL Tackles 5.0 4-7 Gabe Kirschke DL Sacks 0.50 39% 1+, 9% 2+ Dallas Afalava DL Sacks 0.44 36% 1+, 7% 2+ ============================================================ GAME CONTEXT ============================================================ Louisville recent form: 2-3 over last 5 games Wake Forest recent form: 4-1 over last 5 games ------------------------------------------------------------ Generated by spreadsim.com's model. See spreadsim.com/methodology for how these numbers are computed. spreadsim.com/games/10306