Texas at Tennessee NCAA, Week 4, 2026 regular season Kickoff: September 26, 2026 at 4:00 PM UTC Status: scheduled ============================================================ WHAT TO EXPECT ============================================================ spreadsim's model favors Texas by 4.4 points, giving them a 60% chance to win outright. It projects a total of 71.2 combined points, with Tennessee at 33.4 and Texas at 37.5. Simulating the game 10,000 times, Tennessee's margin lands between -26.5 and +18.0 points 80% of the time -- a real range, not a single guessed score. ============================================================ THE PREDICTION IN DETAIL ============================================================ Spread: Tennessee +4.4 / Texas -4.4 Moneyline: Tennessee +151 / Texas -151 Win probability: Tennessee 39.9% / Texas 60.2% Projected total: 71.2 points Last recalculated: September 8, 2026 at 6:02 AM UTC This comes from each team's Elo rating -- Tennessee: 1584.2, Texas: 1741.8 -- plus a +65.0-point home-field edge, adjusted by these real per-team factors (16.2 Elo points per spread point): Adjustment factor Tennessee Texas ----------------- --------- ------ elevation +0.0 +0.0 injury_hazard +0.0 +0.0 roster_talent +100.0 +100.0 travel_fatigue +0.0 +1.3 coaching_change +11.8 +9.5 ncaa_efficiency +20.0 +20.0 blowout_hangover +0.0 +0.0 home_field_vector +20.0 -- consecutive_road -- +0.0 ============================================================ HOW THIS COMPARES TO THE MARKET ============================================================ No market line available for this game yet. Line movement: opened Tennessee +6.5 (July 13, 2026 at 7:21 AM UTC), now +6.5 (August 10, 2026 at 12:20 PM UTC), 115 snapshots on record. ============================================================ RANGE OF LIKELY OUTCOMES ============================================================ Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations. Projected score: Texas 37.5 -- Tennessee 33.4 Percentile 10th 25th 50th 75th 90th ---------------- ----- ----- ---- ---- ----- Tennessee margin -26.5 -15.8 -4.2 +7.7 +18.0 Total points 49.4 59.6 70.8 82.2 92.2 ============================================================ PLAYER PROPS: WHAT TO EXPECT ============================================================ Individual player projections, with each stat's real 68% likely range or touchdown probability: TENNESSEE Player Pos Stat Proj. 68% range / TD odds ----------------- --- --------------- ----- ------------------- Ryan Staub QB Passing yards 161.2 77-262 Pass attempts 23.7 15-40 Completions 13.8 8-23 Passing TDs 0.66 48% 1+, 14% 2+ Rushing yards 19.1 -- Rushing TDs 0.29 25% 1+ Ethan Davis TE Receiving yards 55.2 32-102 Receptions 3.4 2-6 Receiving TDs 0.41 33% 1+, 6% 2+ DeSean Bishop RB Rushing yards 55.0 14-84 Carries 14.1 8-18 Rushing TDs 0.89 59% 1+, 22% 2+ Receiving yards 16.9 -- Receptions 2.8 2-4 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Braylon Staley WR Receiving yards 51.1 16-85 Receptions 4.8 3-8 Receiving TDs 0.41 34% 1+, 6% 2+ Mike Matthews WR Receiving yards 46.3 11-69 Receptions 3.9 2-5 Receiving TDs 0.20 18% 1+ Javin Gordon RB Rushing yards 30.0 -- Carries 9.6 4-13 Rushing TDs 0.15 14% 1+ Receiving yards 14.5 -- Receptions 2.7 2-5 Receiving TDs 0.10 9% 1+ Trent Thomas TE Receiving yards 24.5 1-32 Receptions 2.1 0-3 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Radarious Jackson WR Receiving yards 14.3 -- Receptions 1.6 -- Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Arion Carter LB Tackles 7.2 4-12 DJ Burks DB Tackles 7.2 5-10 Jordan Norman DL Sacks 0.75 53% 1+, 17% 2+ Daevin Hobbs DL Sacks 0.38 31% 1+, 6% 2+ TEXAS Player Pos Stat Proj. 68% range / TD odds ------------------ --- --------------- ----- ------------------- Arch Manning QB Passing yards 269.4 185-370 Pass attempts 32.5 24-40 Completions 20.0 14-26 Passing TDs 2.21 89% 1+, 65% 2+ Rushing yards 30.8 -- Rushing TDs 0.61 46% 1+, 13% 2+ Raleek Brown RB Rushing yards 66.0 25-141 Carries 13.2 8-17 Rushing TDs 0.70 50% 1+, 16% 2+ Receiving yards 19.9 0-30 Receptions 2.5 1-4 Receiving TDs 0.35 30% 1+ Ryan Wingo WR Rushing yards 15.3 -- Rushing TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Receiving yards 63.1 28-113 Receptions 4.5 2-7 Receiving TDs 0.45 36% 1+, 8% 2+ Hollywood Smothers RB Rushing yards 60.4 20-101 Carries 12.0 6-17 Rushing TDs 0.35 30% 1+ Receiving yards 20.5 1-35 Receptions 3.2 2-4 Receiving TDs 0.18 16% 1+ Cam Coleman WR Receiving yards 52.6 17-95 Receptions 4.7 2-7 Receiving TDs 0.45 36% 1+, 8% 2+ Emmett Mosley V WR Receiving yards 45.7 10-68 Receptions 3.6 2-6 Receiving TDs 0.34 29% 1+ Emaree Winston TE Receiving yards 27.3 4-38 Receptions 2.1 0-3 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Michael Masunas TE Receiving yards 24.9 1-38 Receptions 2.4 1-3 Receiving TDs 0.15 14% 1+ Rasheem Biles LB Tackles 8.5 6-13 Sacks 0.56 43% 1+, 11% 2+ Jelani McDonald DB Tackles 6.7 4-10 Alex January DL Sacks 0.19 17% 1+ ============================================================ GAME CONTEXT ============================================================ Tennessee recent form: 2-3 over last 5 games Texas recent form: 4-1 over last 5 games ------------------------------------------------------------ Generated by spreadsim.com's model. See spreadsim.com/methodology for how these numbers are computed. spreadsim.com/games/10307