South Alabama at Kentucky NCAA, Week 4, 2026 regular season Kickoff: September 26, 2026 at 4:45 PM UTC Status: scheduled ============================================================ WHAT TO EXPECT ============================================================ spreadsim's model favors Kentucky by 17.3 points, giving them a 83% chance to win outright. It projects a total of 50.6 combined points, with Kentucky at 33.8 and South Alabama at 16.7. Simulating the game 10,000 times, Kentucky's margin lands between -5.2 and +39.5 points 80% of the time -- a real range, not a single guessed score. ============================================================ THE PREDICTION IN DETAIL ============================================================ Spread: Kentucky -17.3 / South Alabama +17.3 Moneyline: Kentucky -505 / South Alabama +505 Win probability: Kentucky 83.5% / South Alabama 16.5% Projected total: 50.6 points Last recalculated: September 8, 2026 at 6:02 AM UTC This comes from each team's Elo rating -- Kentucky: 1469.2, South Alabama: 1416.8 -- plus a +65.0-point home-field edge, adjusted by these real per-team factors (16.2 Elo points per spread point): Adjustment factor Kentucky South Alabama ----------------- -------- ------------- elevation +0.0 +0.0 injury_hazard +0.0 +0.0 roster_talent +84.4 -72.6 travel_fatigue +0.0 +0.0 coaching_change -33.5 +11.8 ncaa_efficiency +20.0 -20.0 blowout_hangover +0.0 +0.0 home_field_vector +12.4 -- consecutive_road -- +0.0 ============================================================ HOW THIS COMPARES TO THE MARKET ============================================================ No market line available for this game yet. ============================================================ RANGE OF LIKELY OUTCOMES ============================================================ Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations. Projected score: South Alabama 16.7 -- Kentucky 33.8 Percentile 10th 25th 50th 75th 90th --------------- ---- ---- ----- ----- ----- Kentucky margin -5.2 +5.4 +17.1 +29.0 +39.5 Total points 29.2 39.3 50.6 61.6 72.0 ============================================================ PLAYER PROPS: WHAT TO EXPECT ============================================================ Individual player projections, with each stat's real 68% likely range or touchdown probability: KENTUCKY Player Pos Stat Proj. 68% range / TD odds ----------------------- --- --------------- ----- ------------------- Kenny Minchey QB Passing yards 58.3 -- Pass attempts 10.6 2-14 Completions 7.3 1-10 Passing TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Rushing yards 20.7 -- Rushing TDs 0.22 20% 1+ Xavier Daisy WR Receiving yards 49.1 14-76 Receptions 4.1 2-6 Receiving TDs 0.32 28% 1+ DJ Miller WR Receiving yards 45.0 9-106 Receptions 2.9 1-5 Receiving TDs 0.52 40% 1+, 10% 2+ Jason Patterson RB Rushing yards 43.4 3-74 Carries 9.7 4-16 Rushing TDs 0.14 13% 1+ Receiving yards 16.8 -- Receptions 2.7 2-5 Receiving TDs 0.12 11% 1+ CJ Baxter RB Rushing yards 37.6 -- Carries 8.9 4-13 Rushing TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Receiving yards 16.2 -- Receptions 2.8 2-5 Receiving TDs 0.19 17% 1+ Nic Anderson WR Receiving yards 23.8 -- Receptions 2.1 -- Receiving TDs 0.43 35% 1+, 7% 2+ Willie Rodriguez TE Receiving yards 23.3 -- Receptions 2.7 1-4 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Henry Boyer TE Receiving yards 17.0 -- Receptions 2.1 0-3 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Ty Bryant DB Tackles 5.9 4-9 Jordan Castell DB Tackles 5.8 4-10 Lorenzo Cowan LB Sacks 0.50 39% 1+, 9% 2+ Mi'Quise Humphrey-Grace DL Sacks 0.44 36% 1+, 7% 2+ SOUTH ALABAMA Player Pos Stat Proj. 68% range / TD odds ---------------- --- --------------- ----- ------------------- Bishop Davenport QB Passing yards 185.2 101-254 Pass attempts 25.7 17-32 Completions 16.8 10-20 Passing TDs 0.73 52% 1+, 17% 2+ Rushing yards 34.7 -- Rushing TDs 0.98 62% 1+, 26% 2+ Keenan Phillips RB Rushing yards 56.2 15-69 Carries 11.7 6-17 Rushing TDs 0.39 32% 1+, 6% 2+ Receiving yards 13.8 -- Receptions 2.0 1-3 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ PJ Martin RB Rushing yards 47.2 6-72 Carries 9.2 4-13 Rushing TDs 0.15 14% 1+ Receiving yards 21.0 2-46 Receptions 2.6 2-4 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Brendan Jenkins WR Receiving yards 36.5 1-55 Receptions 2.5 0-4 Receiving TDs 0.23 21% 1+ Anthony Eager WR Receiving yards 35.9 0-67 Receptions 3.2 1-5 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Micah Woods WR Receiving yards 23.9 -- Receptions 2.0 -- Receiving TDs 0.13 12% 1+ Rod Gibbs TE Receiving yards 13.2 -- Receptions 2.1 0-3 Receiving TDs 0.20 18% 1+ Tirrell Johnson LB Tackles 5.5 2-8 Caleb Dozier LB Tackles 5.3 2-9 Emmanuel Waller DL Sacks 0.14 13% 1+ Tre'Mon Henry LB Sacks 0.00 0% 1+ ============================================================ GAME CONTEXT ============================================================ Kentucky recent form: 2-3 over last 5 games South Alabama recent form: 3-2 over last 5 games ------------------------------------------------------------ Generated by spreadsim.com's model. See spreadsim.com/methodology for how these numbers are computed. spreadsim.com/games/10308