Hawai'i at Wyoming NCAA, Week 4, 2026 regular season Kickoff: September 26, 2026 at 7:00 PM UTC Status: scheduled ============================================================ WHAT TO EXPECT ============================================================ spreadsim's model favors Hawai'i by 5.2 points, giving them a 62% chance to win outright. It projects a total of 37.0 combined points, with Wyoming at 16.0 and Hawai'i at 21.2. Simulating the game 10,000 times, Wyoming's margin lands between -27.2 and +17.0 points 80% of the time -- a real range, not a single guessed score. ============================================================ THE PREDICTION IN DETAIL ============================================================ Spread: Wyoming +5.2 / Hawai'i -5.2 Moneyline: Wyoming +163 / Hawai'i -163 Win probability: Wyoming 38.0% / Hawai'i 62.0% Projected total: 37.0 points Last recalculated: September 8, 2026 at 6:02 AM UTC This comes from each team's Elo rating -- Wyoming: 1320.4, Hawai'i: 1443.8 -- plus a +65.0-point home-field edge, adjusted by these real per-team factors (16.2 Elo points per spread point): Adjustment factor Wyoming Hawai'i ----------------- ------- ------- elevation +0.0 +0.0 injury_hazard +0.0 +0.0 roster_talent -84.6 -50.9 travel_fatigue +3.8 -5.0 coaching_change +9.5 +7.1 ncaa_efficiency -20.0 -20.0 blowout_hangover -20.0 +0.0 home_field_vector +16.0 -- consecutive_road -- +0.0 ============================================================ HOW THIS COMPARES TO THE MARKET ============================================================ No market line available for this game yet. ============================================================ RANGE OF LIKELY OUTCOMES ============================================================ Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations. Projected score: Hawai'i 21.2 -- Wyoming 16.0 Percentile 10th 25th 50th 75th 90th -------------- ----- ----- ---- ---- ----- Wyoming margin -27.2 -16.9 -5.3 +6.6 +17.0 Total points 15.2 25.9 37.5 48.6 58.7 ============================================================ PLAYER PROPS: WHAT TO EXPECT ============================================================ Individual player projections, with each stat's real 68% likely range or touchdown probability: WYOMING Player Pos Stat Proj. 68% range / TD odds --------------- --- --------------- ----- ------------------- Mason Drube QB Passing yards 152.4 68-266 Pass attempts 24.9 16-44 Completions 14.5 8-25 Passing TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Samuel Harris RB Rushing yards 50.8 10-86 Carries 10.6 5-16 Rushing TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Receiving yards 23.0 4-45 Receptions 2.5 1-4 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Diore Hubbard RB Rushing yards 49.3 8-85 Carries 11.5 6-21 Rushing TDs 0.63 47% 1+, 13% 2+ Receiving yards 23.5 4-61 Receptions 2.9 2-5 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Charlie Coenen WR Receiving yards 37.1 1-60 Receptions 2.0 -- Receiving TDs 0.20 18% 1+ Eric Richardson WR Receiving yards 25.5 -- Receptions 2.2 -- Receiving TDs 0.12 11% 1+ Deion DeBlanc WR Rushing yards 22.6 -- Rushing TDs 0.20 18% 1+ Receiving yards 21.3 -- Receptions 2.9 1-4 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Kyle Frendt TE Receiving yards 17.9 -- Receptions 2.1 0-3 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Jones Thomas S Tackles 5.8 4-9 Ethan Stuhlsatz LB Tackles 5.8 3-11 Esaia Bogar DE Sacks 0.17 15% 1+ Jett Vincent S Sacks 0.00 0% 1+ HAWAI'I Player Pos Stat Proj. 68% range / TD odds ------------------------ --- --------------- ----- ------------------- Micah Alejado QB Passing yards 205.2 121-263 Pass attempts 35.0 26-46 Completions 21.9 16-29 Passing TDs 2.32 90% 1+, 67% 2+ Rushing yards 8.4 -- Rushing TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Pofele Ashlock WR Receiving yards 60.7 25-96 Receptions 5.1 3-9 Receiving TDs 0.68 49% 1+, 15% 2+ Cam Barfield RB Rushing yards 41.7 1-74 Carries 8.8 3-14 Rushing TDs 0.26 23% 1+ Receiving yards 15.8 -- Receptions 2.4 1-3 Receiving TDs 0.09 8% 1+ DeVon Rice RB Rushing yards 37.5 -- Carries 9.1 4-14 Rushing TDs 0.20 18% 1+ Receiving yards 19.0 -- Receptions 2.8 2-5 Receiving TDs 0.17 16% 1+ Audric Harris WR Receiving yards 33.6 -- Receptions 2.2 -- Receiving TDs 0.22 20% 1+ Tama Uiliata WR Receiving yards 27.9 -- Receptions 3.5 2-6 Receiving TDs 0.14 13% 1+ Devon Tauaefa TE Receiving yards 15.4 -- Receptions 2.1 0-3 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Jamih Otis LB Tackles 6.9 4-10 Kona Moore DB Tackles 5.6 4-12 Lesterlaisene Lagafuaina DL Sacks 0.19 17% 1+ Luther McCoy DL Sacks 0.19 17% 1+ ============================================================ GAME CONTEXT ============================================================ Wyoming recent form: 0-5 over last 5 games Hawai'i recent form: 2-3 over last 5 games Head-to-head history: Season Away Home Winner ------ ----- ------ ------ 2025 WYO 7 HAW 27 HAW 2023 HAW 9 WYO 42 WYO ------------------------------------------------------------ Generated by spreadsim.com's model. See spreadsim.com/methodology for how these numbers are computed. spreadsim.com/games/10309