New Mexico at New Mexico State NCAA, Week 4, 2026 regular season Kickoff: September 26, 2026 at 7:30 PM UTC Status: scheduled ============================================================ WHAT TO EXPECT ============================================================ spreadsim's model favors New Mexico by 15.6 points, giving them a 81% chance to win outright. It projects a total of 45.6 combined points, with New Mexico State at 15.0 and New Mexico at 30.5. Simulating the game 10,000 times, New Mexico State's margin lands between -38.1 and +7.5 points 80% of the time -- a real range, not a single guessed score. ============================================================ THE PREDICTION IN DETAIL ============================================================ Spread: New Mexico State +15.6 / New Mexico -15.6 Moneyline: New Mexico State +429 / New Mexico -429 Win probability: New Mexico State 18.9% / New Mexico 81.1% Projected total: 45.6 points Last recalculated: September 8, 2026 at 6:02 AM UTC This comes from each team's Elo rating -- New Mexico State: 1300.9, New Mexico: 1578.8 -- plus a +65.0-point home-field edge, adjusted by these real per-team factors (16.2 Elo points per spread point): Adjustment factor New Mexico State New Mexico ----------------- ---------------- ---------- elevation +0.0 +0.0 injury_hazard +0.0 +0.0 roster_talent -100.0 -61.1 travel_fatigue +0.0 +3.4 coaching_change +9.5 +9.5 ncaa_efficiency -0.7 +14.2 blowout_hangover +0.0 +0.0 home_field_vector +17.0 -- consecutive_road -- +0.0 ============================================================ HOW THIS COMPARES TO THE MARKET ============================================================ No market line available for this game yet. ============================================================ RANGE OF LIKELY OUTCOMES ============================================================ Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations. Projected score: New Mexico 30.5 -- New Mexico State 15.0 Percentile 10th 25th 50th 75th 90th ----------------------- ----- ----- ----- ---- ---- New Mexico State margin -38.1 -27.7 -15.6 -3.5 +7.5 Total points 24.1 34.2 45.2 56.8 67.1 ============================================================ PLAYER PROPS: WHAT TO EXPECT ============================================================ Individual player projections, with each stat's real 68% likely range or touchdown probability: NEW MEXICO STATE Player Pos Stat Proj. 68% range / TD odds ---------------------- --- --------------- ----- ------------------- Adam Damante QB Passing yards 219.5 135-386 Pass attempts 28.5 20-51 Completions 18.2 12-34 Passing TDs 1.26 72% 1+, 36% 2+ Rushing yards 8.4 -- Rushing TDs 0.34 28% 1+ TK King WR Rushing yards 12.4 -- Rushing TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Receiving yards 64.9 29-123 Receptions 4.7 2-8 Receiving TDs 0.52 40% 1+, 10% 2+ Brodie Malone-Bradford WR Receiving yards 45.6 10-78 Receptions 3.3 1-5 Receiving TDs 0.39 32% 1+, 6% 2+ Dijon Stanley RB Rushing yards 43.4 2-79 Carries 8.6 3-11 Rushing TDs 0.29 26% 1+ Receiving yards 17.0 -- Receptions 2.8 2-4 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Ray Lotten TE Receiving yards 36.3 13-63 Receptions 1.4 2-2 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Lyndon Ravare WR Receiving yards 35.3 -- Receptions 2.7 0-4 Receiving TDs 0.13 12% 1+ Isaiah Rudison RB Rushing yards 28.7 -- Carries 6.4 1-8 Rushing TDs 0.29 26% 1+ Receiving yards 12.7 -- Receptions 2.4 1-3 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Tory Gethers LB Tackles 7.0 4-11 Sacks 0.12 12% 1+ Sone Aupiu LB Tackles 6.7 4-10 Henry Davis III DL Sacks 0.14 13% 1+ NEW MEXICO Player Pos Stat Proj. 68% range / TD odds ---------------- --- --------------- ----- ------------------- Jack Layne QB Passing yards 178.1 94-265 Pass attempts 23.1 14-27 Completions 14.4 8-18 Passing TDs 0.87 58% 1+, 22% 2+ Rushing yards 20.9 -- Rushing TDs 0.29 25% 1+ Kiefer Sibley RB Rushing yards 45.7 5-73 Carries 7.9 2-11 Rushing TDs 0.47 37% 1+, 8% 2+ Receiving yards 20.8 1-44 Receptions 2.3 1-3 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Troy Omeire WR Receiving yards 44.8 9-71 Receptions 2.6 0-4 Receiving TDs 0.43 35% 1+, 7% 2+ Scottre Humphrey RB Rushing yards 39.5 -- Carries 9.3 4-15 Rushing TDs 0.35 30% 1+ Receiving yards 11.5 -- Receptions 1.5 2-2 Receiving TDs 0.31 27% 1+ Shawn Miller WR Receiving yards 34.5 -- Receptions 2.6 0-4 Receiving TDs 0.17 15% 1+ Cade Keith TE Receiving yards 32.8 9-65 Receptions 2.8 2-5 Receiving TDs 0.54 42% 1+, 10% 2+ Simon Mapa TE Receiving yards 20.8 -- Receptions 1.4 2-2 Receiving TDs 0.96 62% 1+, 25% 2+ Zhaiel Smith WR Receiving yards 17.9 -- Receptions 1.1 1-1 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Jaxton Eck LB Tackles 8.0 5-12 Mercury Swaim LB Tackles 6.2 4-9 Brett Karhu DE Sacks 0.81 56% 1+, 20% 2+ Darren Agu DE Sacks 0.38 31% 1+, 6% 2+ ============================================================ GAME CONTEXT ============================================================ New Mexico State recent form: 1-4 over last 5 games New Mexico recent form: 4-1 over last 5 games Head-to-head history: Season Away Home Winner ------ ------- ------- ------ 2025 NMSU 20 UNM 38 UNM 2024 UNM 50 NMSU 40 UNM 2023 NMSU 27 UNM 17 NMSU ------------------------------------------------------------ Generated by spreadsim.com's model. See spreadsim.com/methodology for how these numbers are computed. spreadsim.com/games/10310