Central Michigan at Miami NCAA, Week 4, 2026 regular season Kickoff: September 26, 2026 at 10:30 PM UTC Status: scheduled ============================================================ WHAT TO EXPECT ============================================================ spreadsim's model favors Miami by 43.7 points, giving them a 98% chance to win outright. It projects a total of 35.9 combined points, with Miami at 39.7 and Central Michigan at -3.9. Simulating the game 10,000 times, Miami's margin lands between +21.4 and +65.7 points 80% of the time -- a real range, not a single guessed score. ============================================================ THE PREDICTION IN DETAIL ============================================================ Spread: Miami -43.7 / Central Michigan +43.7 Moneyline: Miami -5940 / Central Michigan +5940 Win probability: Miami 98.3% / Central Michigan 1.7% Projected total: 35.9 points Last recalculated: September 8, 2026 at 6:02 AM UTC This comes from each team's Elo rating -- Miami: 1799.4, Central Michigan: 1399.4 -- plus a +65.0-point home-field edge, adjusted by these real per-team factors (16.2 Elo points per spread point): Adjustment factor Miami Central Michigan ----------------- ------ ---------------- elevation +0.0 +0.0 injury_hazard +0.0 +0.0 roster_talent +100.0 -77.7 travel_fatigue -3.7 -1.1 coaching_change +9.5 +9.5 ncaa_efficiency +20.0 -20.0 blowout_hangover +0.0 -20.0 home_field_vector +9.5 -- consecutive_road -- +0.0 ============================================================ HOW THIS COMPARES TO THE MARKET ============================================================ No market line available for this game yet. ============================================================ RANGE OF LIKELY OUTCOMES ============================================================ Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations. Projected score: Central Michigan -3.9 -- Miami 39.7 Percentile 10th 25th 50th 75th 90th ------------ ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- Miami margin +21.4 +32.1 +43.4 +55.1 +65.7 Total points 14.2 24.6 36.1 47.1 57.1 ============================================================ PLAYER PROPS: WHAT TO EXPECT ============================================================ Individual player projections, with each stat's real 68% likely range or touchdown probability: MIAMI Player Pos Stat Proj. 68% range / TD odds ------------------ --- --------------- ----- ------------------- Darian Mensah QB Passing yards 232.8 148-314 Pass attempts 33.4 24-42 Completions 22.1 16-26 Passing TDs 2.54 92% 1+, 72% 2+ Rushing yards 7.6 -- Rushing TDs 0.12 11% 1+ Malachi Toney WR Rushing yards 13.3 -- Rushing TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Receiving yards 69.2 34-140 Receptions 6.2 4-10 Receiving TDs 1.14 68% 1+, 32% 2+ Mark Fletcher Jr. RB Rushing yards 59.3 18-109 Carries 13.0 8-18 Rushing TDs 0.38 32% 1+, 6% 2+ Receiving yards 16.1 -- Receptions 2.5 1-3 Receiving TDs 0.26 22% 1+ Cooper Barkate WR Receiving yards 56.0 20-88 Receptions 4.4 2-6 Receiving TDs 0.46 37% 1+, 8% 2+ Vandrevius Jacobs WR Receiving yards 55.9 20-111 Receptions 4.0 2-7 Receiving TDs 0.39 32% 1+, 6% 2+ Girard Pringle Jr. RB Rushing yards 44.1 3-82 Carries 9.6 4-16 Rushing TDs 0.26 22% 1+ Elija Lofton TE Receiving yards 13.1 -- Receptions 1.6 -- Receiving TDs 0.38 32% 1+, 6% 2+ Omar Thornton DB Tackles 6.3 4-9 Mohamed Toure LB Tackles 5.6 2-9 Damon Wilson II DL Sacks 0.62 46% 1+, 13% 2+ Ahmad Moten Sr. DL Sacks 0.44 36% 1+, 7% 2+ CENTRAL MICHIGAN Player Pos Stat Proj. 68% range / TD odds -------------- --- --------------- ----- ------------------- Langston Lewis WR Rushing yards 3.6 -- Rushing TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Receiving yards 57.6 22-98 Receptions 4.3 2-7 Receiving TDs 0.24 21% 1+ Angel Flores QB Passing yards 39.1 -- Pass attempts 8.3 -- Completions 4.6 -- Passing TDs 0.09 8% 1+ Rushing yards 47.9 8-90 Rushing TDs 0.53 41% 1+, 10% 2+ Tommy McIntosh WR Receiving yards 35.2 -- Receptions 3.1 1-5 Receiving TDs 0.16 15% 1+ Brock Townsend RB Rushing yards 31.3 -- Carries 9.2 4-14 Rushing TDs 0.27 24% 1+ Receiving yards 15.8 -- Receptions 2.0 0-3 Receiving TDs 0.20 18% 1+ Vaughn Blue RB Rushing yards 31.1 -- Carries 8.4 3-14 Rushing TDs 0.14 13% 1+ Receiving yards 17.2 -- Receptions 2.3 1-3 Receiving TDs 0.09 9% 1+ Nasir Williams WR Receiving yards 28.8 -- Receptions 1.8 -- Receiving TDs 0.16 15% 1+ Jaion Jackson DB Tackles 4.5 2-6 JJ Douglas DL Tackles 3.5 2-5 Sacks 0.25 22% 1+ Korver Demma DL Sacks 0.50 39% 1+, 9% 2+ ============================================================ GAME CONTEXT ============================================================ Miami recent form: 4-1 over last 5 games Central Michigan recent form: 2-3 over last 5 games ------------------------------------------------------------ Generated by spreadsim.com's model. See spreadsim.com/methodology for how these numbers are computed. spreadsim.com/games/10311