Middle Tennessee at Jacksonville State NCAA, Week 4, 2026 regular season Kickoff: September 26, 2026 at 11:00 PM UTC Status: scheduled ============================================================ WHAT TO EXPECT ============================================================ spreadsim's model favors Jacksonville State by 13.1 points, giving them a 77% chance to win outright. It projects a total of 51.0 combined points, with Jacksonville State at 32.1 and Middle Tennessee at 18.9. Simulating the game 10,000 times, Jacksonville State's margin lands between -8.5 and +35.0 points 80% of the time -- a real range, not a single guessed score. ============================================================ THE PREDICTION IN DETAIL ============================================================ Spread: Jacksonville State -13.1 / Middle Tennessee +13.1 Moneyline: Jacksonville State -339 / Middle Tennessee +339 Win probability: Jacksonville State 77.2% / Middle Tennessee 22.8% Projected total: 51.0 points Last recalculated: September 8, 2026 at 6:02 AM UTC This comes from each team's Elo rating -- Jacksonville State: 1477.0, Middle Tennessee: 1337.4 -- plus a +65.0-point home-field edge, adjusted by these real per-team factors (16.2 Elo points per spread point): Adjustment factor Jacksonville State Middle Tennessee ----------------- ------------------ ---------------- elevation +0.0 +0.0 injury_hazard +0.0 +0.0 roster_talent -40.7 -74.0 travel_fatigue +0.8 +0.0 coaching_change +9.5 +11.8 ncaa_efficiency -9.8 +13.6 blowout_hangover -20.0 +0.0 home_field_vector +19.1 -- consecutive_road -- +0.0 ============================================================ HOW THIS COMPARES TO THE MARKET ============================================================ No market line available for this game yet. ============================================================ RANGE OF LIKELY OUTCOMES ============================================================ Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations. Projected score: Middle Tennessee 18.9 -- Jacksonville State 32.1 Percentile 10th 25th 50th 75th 90th ------------------------- ---- ---- ----- ----- ----- Jacksonville State margin -8.5 +1.7 +13.4 +24.8 +35.0 Total points 29.5 39.5 51.0 62.3 72.4 ============================================================ PLAYER PROPS: WHAT TO EXPECT ============================================================ Individual player projections, with each stat's real 68% likely range or touchdown probability: JACKSONVILLE STATE Player Pos Stat Proj. 68% range / TD odds ------------------ --- --------------- ----- ------------------- Caden Creel QB Passing yards 187.7 103-242 Pass attempts 24.0 15-30 Completions 13.9 8-17 Passing TDs 1.18 69% 1+, 33% 2+ Rushing yards 71.8 32-140 Rushing TDs 0.84 57% 1+, 20% 2+ Deondre Johnson WR Receiving yards 76.7 41-119 Receptions 3.5 2-5 Receiving TDs 1.13 68% 1+, 31% 2+ Jalen Likely RB Rushing yards 44.6 4-73 Carries 9.7 4-16 Rushing TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Receiving yards 15.5 -- Receptions 2.3 1-3 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Ronnel Johnson WR Receiving yards 41.0 5-74 Receptions 3.1 1-5 Receiving TDs 0.19 17% 1+ Justus Savage RB Rushing yards 39.4 -- Carries 8.6 3-12 Rushing TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Franklin Baret Jr. WR Receiving yards 20.5 -- Receptions 2.0 -- Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Mac Sanders LB Tackles 6.9 4-10 Walker O'Steen LB Tackles 6.3 4-10 Tae Floyd DL Sacks 0.67 49% 1+, 14% 2+ Quay Hood DL Sacks 0.30 26% 1+ MIDDLE TENNESSEE Player Pos Stat Proj. 68% range / TD odds ------------------- --- --------------- ----- ------------------- Roman Gagliano QB Passing yards 239.7 155-383 Pass attempts 31.3 22-45 Completions 18.8 12-28 Passing TDs 1.75 83% 1+, 52% 2+ Rushing yards 39.9 -- Rushing TDs 0.50 39% 1+, 9% 2+ Cam'ron Lacy WR Rushing yards 11.8 -- Rushing TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Receiving yards 49.7 14-88 Receptions 4.0 2-6 Receiving TDs 0.30 26% 1+ DJ Taylor RB Rushing yards 45.7 5-76 Carries 6.0 0-7 Rushing TDs 0.36 30% 1+, 5% 2+ Receiving yards 15.8 -- Receptions 2.1 1-3 Receiving TDs 0.22 19% 1+ Antonio Martin RB Rushing yards 45.4 4-85 Carries 6.6 1-8 Rushing TDs 0.22 19% 1+ Landon Collins WR Receiving yards 43.3 8-69 Receptions 4.0 2-5 Receiving TDs 0.20 18% 1+ AJ Jones WR Receiving yards 26.7 -- Receptions 3.4 2-5 Receiving TDs 0.49 39% 1+, 9% 2+ Jackson Lowe CB Tackles 4.4 2-6 Reggie Johnson LB Tackles 4.1 1-6 Sacks 0.38 31% 1+, 6% 2+ Zeion Simpson-Smith DT Sacks 0.25 22% 1+ ============================================================ GAME CONTEXT ============================================================ Jacksonville State recent form: 2-3 over last 5 games Middle Tennessee recent form: 2-3 over last 5 games Head-to-head history: Season Away Home Winner ------ ------- ------- ------ 2025 JXST 24 MTSU 21 JXST 2024 MTSU 20 JXST 42 JXST 2023 JXST 45 MTSU 30 JXST ------------------------------------------------------------ Generated by spreadsim.com's model. See spreadsim.com/methodology for how these numbers are computed. spreadsim.com/games/10312