Troy at Utah State NCAA, Week 4, 2026 regular season Kickoff: September 26, 2026 at 11:30 PM UTC Status: scheduled ============================================================ WHAT TO EXPECT ============================================================ spreadsim's model favors Troy by 0.9 points, giving them a 52% chance to win outright. It projects a total of 44.8 combined points, with Utah State at 22.1 and Troy at 22.9. Simulating the game 10,000 times, Utah State's margin lands between -22.8 and +21.5 points 80% of the time -- a real range, not a single guessed score. ============================================================ THE PREDICTION IN DETAIL ============================================================ Spread: Utah State +0.9 / Troy -0.9 Moneyline: Utah State +108 / Troy -108 Win probability: Utah State 48.0% / Troy 52.0% Projected total: 44.8 points Last recalculated: September 8, 2026 at 6:02 AM UTC This comes from each team's Elo rating -- Utah State: 1439.7, Troy: 1498.8 -- plus a +65.0-point home-field edge, adjusted by these real per-team factors (16.2 Elo points per spread point): Adjustment factor Utah State Troy ----------------- ---------- ----- elevation +0.0 +0.0 injury_hazard +0.0 +0.0 roster_talent -94.2 -44.6 travel_fatigue +0.0 -0.7 coaching_change +11.8 +9.5 ncaa_efficiency -13.0 -20.0 blowout_hangover +0.0 +0.0 home_field_vector +19.6 -- consecutive_road -- +0.0 ============================================================ HOW THIS COMPARES TO THE MARKET ============================================================ No market line available for this game yet. ============================================================ RANGE OF LIKELY OUTCOMES ============================================================ Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations. Projected score: Troy 22.9 -- Utah State 22.1 Percentile 10th 25th 50th 75th 90th ----------------- ----- ----- ---- ----- ----- Utah State margin -22.8 -12.4 -0.8 +10.7 +21.5 Total points 23.6 33.9 45.0 56.1 66.3 ============================================================ PLAYER PROPS: WHAT TO EXPECT ============================================================ Individual player projections, with each stat's real 68% likely range or touchdown probability: UTAH STATE Player Pos Stat Proj. 68% range / TD odds -------------- --- --------------- ----- ------------------- Bryson Barnes QB Passing yards 190.1 106-261 Pass attempts 28.7 20-34 Completions 16.5 10-21 Passing TDs 0.80 55% 1+, 19% 2+ Rushing yards 46.3 6-89 Rushing TDs 0.46 37% 1+, 8% 2+ Javon Robinson WR Rushing yards 9.1 -- Rushing TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Receiving yards 56.9 21-109 Receptions 4.8 3-7 Receiving TDs 0.26 23% 1+ Javen Jacobs RB Rushing yards 45.6 5-84 Carries 6.8 2-10 Rushing TDs 0.36 31% 1+, 5% 2+ Receiving yards 28.8 9-53 Receptions 3.1 2-5 Receiving TDs 0.24 22% 1+ Anthony Garcia WR Rushing yards 14.3 -- Rushing TDs 0.15 14% 1+ Receiving yards 44.8 9-90 Receptions 2.3 0-3 Receiving TDs 0.26 23% 1+ Kahanu Davis WR Receiving yards 35.8 0-47 Receptions 1.8 -- Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Sesi Vailahi RB Rushing yards 30.8 -- Carries 7.2 2-10 Rushing TDs 0.14 13% 1+ Receiving yards 14.7 -- Receptions 2.1 1-3 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Broc Lane TE Receiving yards 26.7 3-59 Receptions 3.0 2-6 Receiving TDs 0.24 22% 1+ Josh Sterzer TE Receiving yards 14.6 -- Receptions 2.1 0-3 Receiving TDs 0.21 19% 1+ Brevin Hamblin S Tackles 8.6 6-12 John Miller LB Tackles 8.2 6-11 Chris Joe LB Sacks 0.50 39% 1+, 9% 2+ Tyree Morris DT Sacks 0.44 36% 1+, 7% 2+ TROY Player Pos Stat Proj. 68% range / TD odds -------------- --- --------------- ----- ------------------- Goose Crowder QB Passing yards 244.2 160-416 Pass attempts 26.8 18-42 Completions 16.0 10-26 Passing TDs 1.75 83% 1+, 52% 2+ Rushing yards 13.2 -- Rushing TDs 0.18 17% 1+ Jordan Lovett RB Rushing yards 38.9 -- Carries 9.6 4-16 Rushing TDs 0.20 18% 1+ Receiving yards 15.5 -- Receptions 2.2 1-3 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Jackson Worley TE Receiving yards 19.2 -- Receptions 1.5 -- Receiving TDs 0.17 16% 1+ Justin Powe S Tackles 6.8 4-9 TJ Thompson LB Tackles 3.6 0-5 Donnie Smith DB Sacks 0.94 61% 1+, 24% 2+ Ty Clemons DT Sacks 0.40 33% 1+, 6% 2+ ============================================================ GAME CONTEXT ============================================================ Utah State recent form: 2-3 over last 5 games Troy recent form: 3-2 over last 5 games ------------------------------------------------------------ Generated by spreadsim.com's model. See spreadsim.com/methodology for how these numbers are computed. spreadsim.com/games/10313