Arizona at Washington State NCAA, Week 4, 2026 regular season Kickoff: September 26, 2026 at 11:30 PM UTC Status: scheduled ============================================================ WHAT TO EXPECT ============================================================ spreadsim's model favors Arizona by 8.8 points, giving them a 69% chance to win outright. It projects a total of 35.9 combined points, with Washington State at 13.6 and Arizona at 22.5. Simulating the game 10,000 times, Washington State's margin lands between -31.4 and +13.4 points 80% of the time -- a real range, not a single guessed score. ============================================================ THE PREDICTION IN DETAIL ============================================================ Spread: Washington State +8.8 / Arizona -8.8 Moneyline: Washington State +227 / Arizona -227 Win probability: Washington State 30.5% / Arizona 69.5% Projected total: 35.9 points Last recalculated: September 8, 2026 at 6:02 AM UTC This comes from each team's Elo rating -- Washington State: 1513.0, Arizona: 1616.3 -- plus a +65.0-point home-field edge, adjusted by these real per-team factors (16.2 Elo points per spread point): Adjustment factor Washington State Arizona ----------------- ---------------- ------- elevation +0.0 +0.0 injury_hazard +0.0 +0.0 roster_talent -24.6 +20.3 travel_fatigue +3.2 +0.0 coaching_change -26.8 +11.8 ncaa_efficiency -20.0 +20.0 blowout_hangover +0.0 +0.0 home_field_vector +15.8 -- consecutive_road -- +0.0 ============================================================ HOW THIS COMPARES TO THE MARKET ============================================================ No market line available for this game yet. ============================================================ RANGE OF LIKELY OUTCOMES ============================================================ Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations. Projected score: Arizona 22.5 -- Washington State 13.6 Percentile 10th 25th 50th 75th 90th ----------------------- ----- ----- ---- ---- ----- Washington State margin -31.4 -20.5 -8.8 +2.7 +13.4 Total points 14.3 25.0 36.0 47.5 57.2 ============================================================ PLAYER PROPS: WHAT TO EXPECT ============================================================ Individual player projections, with each stat's real 68% likely range or touchdown probability: WASHINGTON STATE Player Pos Stat Proj. 68% range / TD odds ---------------------- --- --------------- ----- ------------------- Kirby Vorhees RB Rushing yards 49.0 8-70 Carries 12.4 7-17 Rushing TDs 0.43 35% 1+, 7% 2+ Receiving yards 15.6 -- Receptions 2.2 1-3 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Tony Freeman WR Receiving yards 43.9 8-76 Receptions 4.0 2-7 Receiving TDs 0.31 27% 1+ Maxwell Woods RB Rushing yards 38.5 -- Carries 7.5 2-11 Rushing TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Receiving yards 19.4 -- Receptions 2.8 2-4 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Daniel Blood WR Receiving yards 29.4 -- Receptions 2.8 0-5 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Trey Leckner TE Receiving yards 24.3 1-42 Receptions 2.1 0-3 Receiving TDs 0.09 9% 1+ Branden Ganashamoorthy WR Receiving yards 18.2 -- Receptions 2.0 -- Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Jack Pedersen TE Receiving yards 16.1 -- Receptions 2.0 0-3 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Jaylen Thomas S Tackles 4.8 2-7 Paul Hutson III DT Tackles 4.1 2-6 Linus Zunk DE Sacks 0.38 31% 1+, 6% 2+ DJ Warner LB Sacks 0.33 28% 1+ ARIZONA Player Pos Stat Proj. 68% range / TD odds ------------------- --- --------------- ----- ------------------- Noah Fifita QB Passing yards 205.7 121-253 Pass attempts 31.9 23-42 Completions 20.2 14-27 Passing TDs 1.86 84% 1+, 56% 2+ Rushing yards 21.7 -- Rushing TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Ismail Mahdi RB Rushing yards 54.6 14-78 Carries 9.9 4-14 Rushing TDs 0.34 29% 1+ Receiving yards 15.2 -- Receptions 2.5 1-4 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Antwan Roberts Jr. RB Rushing yards 52.9 12-101 Carries 10.6 5-18 Rushing TDs 0.46 37% 1+, 8% 2+ Receiving yards 20.2 1-37 Receptions 2.7 2-3 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Chris Hunter III WR Receiving yards 32.3 -- Receptions 3.1 1-5 Receiving TDs 0.21 19% 1+ Cole Rusk TE Receiving yards 32.1 8-59 Receptions 2.7 1-4 Receiving TDs 0.11 10% 1+ Giovanni Richardson WR Receiving yards 29.7 -- Receptions 2.4 0-3 Receiving TDs 0.21 19% 1+ Tre Spivey WR Receiving yards 27.2 -- Receptions 2.3 0-4 Receiving TDs 0.31 27% 1+ Taye Brown LB Tackles 8.3 6-11 Max Harris LB Tackles 7.2 4-10 Everett Roussaw Jr. LB Sacks 0.31 27% 1+ Chase Kennedy LB Sacks 0.25 22% 1+ ============================================================ GAME CONTEXT ============================================================ Washington State recent form: 3-2 over last 5 games Arizona recent form: 4-1 over last 5 games Head-to-head history: Season Away Home Winner ------ ------- ----- ------ 2023 ARIZ 44 WSU 6 ARIZ ------------------------------------------------------------ Generated by spreadsim.com's model. See spreadsim.com/methodology for how these numbers are computed. spreadsim.com/games/10314